Both Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado have been tossed around as potential pick-ups through the media. There has been a lot of talk about who the Braves want back for each, and the asking price so far (if rumors are to be believed) ranges from the Braves offering Prado for Smith and Wheeler (Rockies don’t want to give up Wheeler), to the Braves wanting 4 players for Jurrjens (again, no go from Rox)…
Personally, I’d really like to see Jurrjens on the mound and Prado behind him, but have watched over and over as these rumors fly around: the longer and longer they go the better the chances that we will either not get anything done on them or will completely get taken to the cleaners. Why can’t I just wake up one day and read about a potential deal in the morning and then by noon it is done. The Jurrjens deal has been going for about a month now. I think if it were to happen, with a reasonable amount of players coming from us, it would have happened already. I fear that if either of these deals goes through, instead of being elated we will all be lamenting what we gave up.
UPDATE: Here is some video from Thomas Harding of MLB.COM talking about our rotation and why he thinks we wont be spending a lot of money to bring someone in:
I could have sworn I remember someone asking DOD about Jurrjens during the conference call and his response “I like the upside of the guys we have better”. I’m not 100% sure that I heard / remember that right so till now I have been hesitant to post, but I am pretty darn sure that’s what he said. Perhaps someone else that was on the call can help me out.
That said, depending upon the cost I would also like to see Jurrjens here. But Jurrjens or no Jurrjens, this 2012 team is going to have to score runs. Sans a whole bunch of fortune, I don’t think that it is practical to get from where they are to a competitive rotation this off-season. Bats and bullpen have to be studly for the team to compete in 2012.
That does sound familiar now that you say it (about DOD’s thoughts), so i’m wondering if he is just posturing to keep his cards close to his chest and hopefully not show how much he wants him, or if he really believes that – if that is the case, i don’t agree. We do need him – just at the right price.
I think he meant it. Somewhere else in the call he was reasonably passionate about saying that this team wasn’t going to have a #1 starter the likes of Lincecum or Kershaw, but he felt that this staff wouldn’t have a #4 or #5 starter either. It was his hope the 2′s and 3′s would make up the difference.
Here is the stable of starters from which he currently has to choose (I’m sure I’ll forget some):
Pomeranz
Chacin
Nicasio
DLR (June)
Hammel
Slowey
Chatwood
White
Mortenson
Friedrich
In addition he’ll probably add Millwood type
I’m not saying I agree with him, but if he values some of these names more than I; I can see his point. If you could somehow wave a magic wand and put Jurrgens on this list, it looks a heckuva lot better, but I’m still not sure it competes favorably with the other staffs in the division. Jurrgens is not Lincecum or Kershaw.
I know that I am in the minority, but I put a higher priority, for this year anyway, on offense. Specifically ensuring that all positions have starters and that they all, but especially RF, LF 1B and 3B, are protected from becoming wastelands again.
I think that if you fix the corners, the team ifs fine with existing talent at 2B, but they need to pick one. The huge upside I see from Prado is obviously the big upgrade offensively at 2B but also the protection he provides at 3B. Should the old guy, the kid and the catcher fail at 3B they slide Prado over there and insert one of the current guys at 2B and remain a fair piece ahead of 2011.
I posted in another post my discovery that the 2011 team was between ahead by 1 or had the tying run on deck in 100 of 162 games last year. It really blows me away that happened with last years staff. It also causes me to reevaluate the importance I place on stud pitchers. Obviously you gotta get there and not wear out your bullpen, but if you find a way to lock those 100 games down it is a whole different season.
If all the Braves want for Prado is Smith and Wheeler, why hasn’t DanO pulled the trigger. Where does Wheeler fit in with this team in the next three years? We have Cargo, Dex and Cuddyer for at least the next three years! Blackmon or some other free agent can serve as the 4th OF. Get this deal done!!! Stop overvaluing prospects! Man this team frustrates me!!!!!!!!!!
I kinda agree with egossage. If we can get Prado by including Wheeler, then it might be best to make the deal. Wheeler looks like he’ll be solid but if there isn’t any room for him here, then keeping him blocked won’t do us any good. Guess we’ll see what happens.
-ghoste
My guess as to the unwillingness to include Wheeler in a deal is that the Rockies are uncertain what will happen with Fowler both on the field but also convincing Boras to allow him to sign pre-free agency.
That said, the Rockies always seem hesitant to move prospects and hesitant to promote prospects…so I really have no clue why they’d balk at immediate improving the club over a CF prospect when thats as deep a position as they have.
There is probably something more to it. Maybe the Braves want even more than Wheeler and Smith.
I’m a fan of Prado. Like to see him in purple, playing 2nd everyday.
Regarding pitching, I name that I haven’t seen that seems somewhat logical is Brandon McCarthy. Baseball Prospectus said the following about McCarthy two days ago:
“Considering he hadn’t pitched at all in the big leagues in 2010 and had made just 23 MLB starts in 2008-09 due to injury, it was a stunning turnaround—so much so that despite a pedestrian 9-9 record, it was McCarthy who led the entire American League in FIP. Though his 6.49 K/9 rate seems low for that type of success, McCarthy’s miniscule 1.32 BB/9 rate means that his K/BB mark was the fourth-highest in baseball, behind only Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, and Cliff Lee. If anything, McCarthy improved as the season went on, turning a 46/12 K/BB in the first half into a 77/13 mark in the second half despite only one additional start.”
On the surface, the A’s have him for cheap, so why move him? But Billy Beane obviously has San Jose state of mind at the moment. Look at the A’s deals so far – Cahill, Gonzalez, Bailey. Mr. Moneyball is looking for volume. He’s getting multiple 3 and 4 star players instead of a single 5 star. Also consider the A’s outfield is almost non-existent. Why not float Blackmon, a borderline pitching prospect, and enough money to make the soda machine free in the A’s clubhouse for 2K12 (my tribute to Moneyball). It might work. One thing I know about picthing at Coors – don’t walk guys! McCarthy fits.
Some good points about McCarthy.
He’s also a Colorado kid (Cheyenne Mountain HS/Lamar College) who might thrive here.
Rox haven’t done so well with homegrown hurlers (John Burke, Scott Elarton) in the past, but if McCarthy is available he’s worth pursuing.
And it seems like just about every Oakland player is available.
Just to follow-up on my comment, if the season began tomorrow, here’s what the A’s outfield roster would be:
Collin Cowgill
Jermaine Mitchell
Josh Reddick
Michael Taylor
I would like to see Wheeler have one year at AAA to better judge if he might be the next Mickey Mantle.That said,Blackmon,Colvin,that other kid we picked up,obviously Smith,should certainly be floated.All the A’s pitchers have been had for mostly prospects,and I’d take any or all of them.Do think Prog maybe on to something with the Dex/Boras connection.Scotty boy can’t let another Cargo situation muddy his “rep”!
I don’t want to overpay for Prado. My guess is that Wheeler will start the year at AAA, be up by the end of the year, be the 4th outfielder next year, and be a starter the next year when Cuddyer moves to 1B when Todd retires. Also, I would expect to see Ruttledge playing 2B at some point in 2013. Could we get Theriot on a one year contract for about 3.5 million? That would leave Smith to be traded for a starting pitcher. Does anybody know how much we have left to spend in our budget?
At one point – I thought we had cleared about 27.5M as follows:
Huston Street +/- 8M.
Wiggy +/- 4M – but I think we’re eating half of that, so say 2M.
Mark Ellis – maybe 1M
Ubaldo – I think he would have been due about 7M
Iannetta – 3.5M
Stewart – +/- 3M
Spilly – +/- 3M
So this totals very approximately 27.5M.
Some of those are admittedly guesses. He took on 3.5M for Hernandez, and about 10M for Cuddyer. Blake and Wood should be fairly “minimal” – say 3M total. So this totals very approximately 16.5M – leaving us about 11M with the payroll stays the same as lasy year. Some of this will no doubt be absorbed in raises/escalation to guys like Tulo, Cargo, etc. So my guess is that we may have about 5M to work with if the payroll stays the same. A little payroll growth may leave us in the 8-10M range. Certainly enough to pay Prado and Lidge (or some similar combination).
All of this is obviously VERY approximate on my part.
On a very loosely related note – the Padres continue to be active, aquiring Carlos Quentin today. They have built a nice outfield with Maybin, Quentin, Blanks, and Will Venable (whom I like quite a bit).
SDCarp, you probably have to add the salaries for Slowey and Pomarranz (assuming that he is on the roster in April) and Colvin and the 2B we got from the Cubs as part of the Stewart deal. So, we have some money to work with to find a 2B and a starting pitcher, and maybe one or two relievers. Also, do we have a backup catcher (assuming that’s not Pacheco), or do we still need one?
I’m guessing Rosario will be the backup catcher this year.
Good call on Slowey and Colvin – they’re probably worth 2M each. The others (Pomeranz, White, etc. should be major league minimum – not that I’m demeaning that – i’d take it!). I thinking Chatwood should be around the minimum also.
Rosario should be the 2nd Catcher – again, major league minimum, which would be less than Jose Morales made in that spot beginning last year. The thing I don’t know about are salary escalation for guys like Belisle, Lindstrom, Betancourt, etc. Just don’t know how their contracts are structured. The other thing to consider is that moving Seth Smith frees salary. Depending on the deal (secondary players involved, money changing hands, etc.) – and Smith for Prado deal could be almost salary neutral.
SDCarp, I think that Rosario starts the year at AAA. At this point of his career, he needs to play every day and improve. So, I think that someone else becomes the backup catcher who plays 40 – 50 games. (I don’t think that Pacheco can be that guy, so if he makes the team, it’s as a super utility backup for catcher, 3B, and 1B (although we have Giambi and Cuddyer to backup Todd)). So, we may have to allocate more than a minimum salary for a backup catcher.
BTW, I can’t remember if I have already said this, but the new site looks great.
I was actually surprised to see the Padres trade BOTH Castro and Hernandez for Quentin. How players fall out of grace so easily. Much like Ian Stewart, highly touted by the ranking sites like baseball Prospectus and/or America only to be devalued to “having no upside” as alleged by ESPN.
Our starting rotation considered to be a bunch of number 2′s or 3′s? Ok I understand why Mr. O’Dowd would take that line and I guess some could see them that way. I don’t. Strictly my opinion but Chacin at best right now could be a #2 or #3. Beyond him too many question marks. Even my favorite, Jorge De La Rosa, is a huge question mark coming back. Could he be the #1 guy by the end of 2012? Maybe and that’s a big maybe. I thought Nicasio was the real deal. I really hope he fully recovers and gets back to form. The rest? Beats me. Hammel is a good pitcher. He sure does have his moments. Maybe Joe Maddon was right. (No disrespect Jason if you read this).
The rest? All “projected” to be good. Right now? #5, #6 or maybe even #7 guys. I’m sure 1 or 2 of the bunch will be very good. How many seasons have some Rockies fans been telling me Friedrich is the man? I got a beat down from someone 2 seasons ago on the DP site. He assured me Friedrich was ready back then.
I guess we will see soon enough but I don’t think the Rockies are willing to give up a bunch to get another starter.
Mike Raysfan,
I think that you’re right. Lots of question marks in the rotation.
I do think that the Rockies are willing to trade Seth Smith for a starting pitcher. That seems to be their one big chip.
Rosenthal reported that talks cooled with the Braves because the two teams couldn’t agree on a pitching prospect to go along with Smith. My guess is, they asked for someone along the lines of Bettis or White. If you had to give up one of them to get Prado, a) would it be worth it? and b) which one would you give up? Personally, I would mind giving up Edwar Cabrera or Friedrich to get Prado, but I would not give up Bettis or White. I can see why the two sides may be far apart….
*Wouldn’t mind giving up Cabrera or Friedrich