As was pointed out, it seems that we are in the godforsaken ”lull” period in-between off-season transactions and Spring Training, so maybe some outlandish predictions will spark some debate and keep us all busy for a bit. Here are mine for the 2012 Rox!
NL West:
1. Rockies: 90-72
2. D-backs: 88-74
3. Giants: 85-77
4. Dodgers: 82-80
5. Padres: 75-87
Stats for the “every-day” line-up:
1. Fowler: .280/10/60
2. Scutaro: .295/12/70
3. CarGo: .315/28/105
4. Tulo: .299/32/110
5. Cuddyer: .275/25/95
6. Helton: .305/15/75
7. Hernandez: .260/20/65
8. Arenado: .275/20/65
Stats for the “Rotation”:
Chacin: 15-10 3.75
DLR: 12-5 3.80
Pomeranz: 14-7 3.75
Hammel: 12-7 4.00
Moscoso: 10-6 4.25
There you have it. I am an eternal optimist, and I would kindly ask you all to fall in-line…
Or, tell me why I am dead wrong!
Oh my… I love the optimism. Stay out of the Vegas sports-books.
Big risk, big reward
I think I am as optimistic as anyone here, but one of your predictions is for sure a pipe-dream. There is no way the DeaLeR is gonna pitch that many games. He will be lucky to be in the rotation before July I’m guessing and for him to go 12 and 5 he would need to pitch over twenty games or so which is a ton for someone coming off TJ surgery.
I do like your optimism though, but think that one is beyond optimistic.
Don’t agree with one thing u posted,but would love to drink some of your magic purple cool-aid.Will tell you this,the NL East is going to be a beast.Comparable with AL East.I could see both WC’s coming out of that division.Our division maybe alittle better-not much,and the central is a good deal weaker,IMO.
Gary, I completely agree that the NLEast looks daunting, but they play each other so much and the division is so even that I suspect the records coming out of that div might be less impressive on paper than the teams actually deserve. I think the NLWest has a similar problem, though with lesser teams. But pay me no never-mind: I have a pristine record of being 100% wrong with all my pre-season predictions. Would love it if the Pirates and Royals made the playoffs this year, but I really don’t see it happening.
If Arenado hits twenty dingers in the MLB, the Rockies WILL win the NL West, but I just don’t see it happening in 2012 without ever having played above high A minor league ball.
Also Pomeranz will never see enough innings or games to get to 14 wins, I would be thrilled if he gets to double digit wins in 2012.
I would love to fall in line here, but my 2011 broken heart just won’t let me
i think he will his 20+ dings, just think it will be somewhere other than Coors…probably CS…
i do think that if pomeranz makes it out of ST on the starting day roster he will see that many innings/games and his potential is up there to be a +10 game winner – i’d say he has as good of a chance being in the top 5 as most of our young arms…he just needs to find the arm that he had the first few games last year and not the last couple and keep that one in his locker!
5 ten game winners from this young staff?
Yes, I think that sounds about right. Pass the Kool Aid Gary:)
That would be in line with our 2009 staff where all were +10:
Jimenez (15 – 12)
Marquis (15 – 13 — have i said how much i miss this guy???)
The DeaLeR (16 – 9 and if i remember correctly he was 0 and 6 to start the season)
Hammel ( 10 – 8 )
Cook (11 – 6)
The difference is all of them had at least a couple of years under the belt, no tommy johns to deal with and nary a broken neck!
Our ’07 staff at the end of the year was amazing, but only 2 of the 5 were +10 at the end (Francis 17 – 9 and Fogg 10 – 9)…
I’m gonna go 82-80.
A couple months ago that would’ve struck me as incredibly optimistic. But the division is really weak all over again, and really, other than the Padres, it’s hard to predict anyone winning over 85 or losing more than 85. That’s what happens when mediocre teams play each other 18 times a year.
A gave you Clay Davenport’s projections last week. Here’s an update of what a couple very early,(rosters are not settled) respected projection systems are saying now:
Davenport:
D’backs 86-76
Rockies 86-76
Giants 81-81
Dodgers 78-84
Padres 75-87
Marcel (using a simple, yet proven reliable, projection system from Tom Tango; the system was used by a guy named Larry Mahnken who runs a blog with the great name of Replacement Level Yankees Weblog):
Rockies 85-77
D’backs 85-77
Giants 85-77
Dodgers 76-86
Padres 75-87
Manken ran a bunch of simulations with that data set and came out with this fantastic conclusion from our perspective: the Rockies have a 38.5 % chance of making the playoffs (with one wild card), and a 32.1 % chance of winning the NL West outright. Add that second wild card Selig is still considering and it jumps right up to about 50 %. Amazing.
The NL in general is weak. Only 3 teams — Phillies, Braves, Reds — project at more than the Rockies 85 wins. It really is wide open in the Central and the West.
You knew it was coming …. the reality check.
This Rockies club is interesting and the projections for it strike me as having way more margin of error than almost any other club. Main reason: the systems have to estimate playing time, innings pitched, etc. So they guess that De La Rosa gives us half a season at his pre-injury effectiveness. They guess that Pomeranz can throw 130 or so effective innings. They guess that Nicasio can do the same. They guess that Helton can continue to contribute 400 or so recent Helton-type plate appearances. They guess that Casey Blake can contribute 200 + plate appearances at 3B. So that’s why I knock a few games off the projection systems. The possibility that a guy like Pomeranz exceeds 130 innings is virtually nil; they’ll shut him down if he hits 130 or so given how scared clubs are of the “Verducci Effect” (raising the inning count year-by-year by more than a small percentage). The chance that De La Rosa comes back in May is virtually nil. So the upside to the projection is small. The downside, unfortunately, isn’t. If De La Rosa doesn’t come back till August that means a bunch more starts for some Moscoso type. Same with Nicasio. And that’s really bad. If Blake’s back doesn’t heal fast and his 38 year old body can’t really contribute that means a replacement level player like Nelson or LaMahieu at 3B, and that’s bad. Same with Helton, and same with Ramon Hernandez.
So I’ll grant you this: it’ll be interesting. This club could totally collapse if several of these key old/injured guys can’t play. It could be a real fun season if all (or all but one) can at least perform at their best-guess projections.
Just for fun, I’ll take a look this weekend at an interesting question: what would be our projected win total if O’Dowd had done absolutely nothing? That means keeping Ubaldo, Smith, Stewart, Street, Iannetta; not acquiring Cuddyer, Scutaro, Hernandez, Blake, etc. Better or worse? I don’t know the answer yet …
Matt G, I want some of your cool aid, perhaps somewhere on opening day close to coors field!! Do I think the young guys will progress to your projected level I can only hope but, in my mind how will the over the hill gang fare is much more of a question mark?? Agbayani can you see what the percentages were last year for the St. Louis Cardinals, probably about the same I’m guessing. So you never know. If O’Dowd had done nothing I know I would not be going to many games as I am sure many of us wouldn’t be. Go Rockies!!
Opening day at Jacksons for a “ToddFather”? Haha, it’ll be the day we celebrate the first of our 90 wins!
Matt G,
Are those stats for Arenado minor league stats? Because there is no way he’ll hit 20 HRs in the big leagues this year. We’ll probably see him make his debut in September. I say he hits 3 HRs for the Rockies this year with 13 RBIs.
You’re probably right…but’s it’s February and I have the right to pretend that the miserable black hole that is the Colorado Rockies 3B position will vanish this season.
We seem to be forgetting of what contribution we may get from Nicasio and Rogers in the starting rotation. I can see a total of 12-14 wins BETWEEN the two of them which isn’t that far fetched. You add those wins from the wins you take away from DLR and Pomeranz (which was a bit optimistic from Matt Gs prediction), and everything falls right in line. The other 3 pitcher’s numbers aren’t too unrealistic-Chacin is capable of winning 15, Hammel is due for a breakout year (or send him packing), and Moscoso should improve his numbers with a better lineup around him.
I honestly really like Rogers a lot…i know he has had some melt-down innings and many here aren’t a fan of him as a starter, but I think he really has some potential if he can hone his skills to be a fantastic 4/5 starter and work his way up…his pitches at times look unhittable to me and he is still a baby! Remember that Jimenez had issues at times that showed immaturity on the mound and then something “clicked” in 2010 and he “got it”…i’m hoping it happens to Rogers as well…
I agree with Gary. I see the NL wild card coming out of the NL East.
Agbayani, both the Nationals and Marlins project with less wins than the Rockies? Interesting.
I have no clue about the starting rotation. Way too many questions for me to be overly optimistic. Couple that with the recent JT show and his thoughts on the starters???
I don’t see Rogers making the starting rotation. I could be wrong but I guess we will see. I still believe he could be a flame throwing 1 inning closer.
I hope I’m wrong but I think my pre-st will be:
1) Dbacks
2) Dodgers
3) Giants
4) Rockies
5) Padres
i’m sure it was before the Edwin Jackson pickup…
I don’t think I’m ready to predict a win/loss record, but I do see a return to the Blake Street Bombers. I’m hoping the Rocks have a good to great home record due to having last at bat.
But, the Blake Street Bombers should be reserved for the early team, so we are probably going to need a new name for the offense. Who’s going to create the name now so the media can pick up on it later?
Could be some fun late evenings around LoDo this year.
So I’m going into the season with this approach….
Did anyone see the movie Apollo 18?? Well, I read how horrible it was and that it was just downright awful. But…as a science fiction fan and horror fan I thought…what the heck, I will expect it to be awful…so I set the bar REALLY low. It wasn’t awful, it wasn’t great, could have been WAY better. BUT-I was entertained and didn’t view it as a waste of my time (although if you argue with me about that, I could see your point).
Long story short (too late) that’s how I’m approaching the Rockies this season. Not expecting an amazing year, setting the bar lower than I have in past years, but win or lose, I’m excited for another year of Rockies baseball and will tune in to nearly every game (thank God I married a gal who’s a huge baseball fan).
Not exactly a scientific prediction…but I’m going with it!
GO ROCKIES!
So I did my experiment and ran the numbers for the “what if O’Dowd had done absolutely nothing” scenario.
Bottom line: we’d project as about 1.5 wins better in 2012. In other words, we’d be the favorites to win the division.
That’s why a lot of us didn’t like the Ubaldo trade. It’s not that we were a bunch of pessimistic naysayers. It was actually the opposite. We saw 2011 as kind of an aberration. Lots of guys had injuries and bad seasons at the same time, and the manager made it worse by overreacting to poor starts by several guys. So we saw the nucleus of a team that had a very good chance of bouncing back to form in 2012 with what looked like the best talent in the division.
still that doesn’t take into account that the clubhouse was fractured. Doesnt factor in lack of quality ABs. I would take the new squad over status quo in a nanosecond.
My rotation on OD:
Chacin
Hammel
Pomeranz
Nicasio
White or Chatwood
Alex White is my dark horse as the biggest surprise for us since he’s a ground ball pitcher.
Alex White fell off a lot of people’s radar due to his lack-luster outings last August and September. I asked Troy Renck his thoughts on White’s struggles last year. He sighted his finger issues and that that affected his arm slot
https://twitter.com/#!/TroyRenck/status/162744781288640513
thats exactly why he didn’t pitch too well when his finger wasn’t 100% healed. Plus he’s had a respectable performance when pitching in the AL before the injury.
Hope you guys are right because he looked down right horrible. 2008 Greg Reynolds type horrible.
“still that doesn’t take into account that the clubhouse was fractured. Doesnt factor in lack of quality ABs. I would take the new squad over status quo in a nanosecond.”
RockyMountainHigh, what makes you think the clubhouse was fractured? I’m not saying it was or it wasn’t, but have we ever heard anyone in the know — Jim Tracy on down — actually say so? This doesn’t strike me as a Red Sox situation where we actually heard about some players calling out others for drinking beer and eating KFC in the clubhouse. We know Tracy and O’Dowd had some issues with Smith and Stewart, but this is the first I’ve heard anyone talk about a “fractured clubhouse.”
As for working the counts, tiring out opposing pitchers, getting quality at bats, etc, etc:
Pitches per Plate Appearance, 2011:
Iannetta 4.23
Ramon Hernandez 3.45
Seth Smith 3.95
Cuddyer 3.81
The .8 difference between Iannetta and Hernandez is huge; the .14 between Smith and Cuddyer is pretty insignificant. And I know that number of pitches per plate appearance doesn’t tell us everything about the nature of an at bat.
But still — you’ve replaced a very patient hitter in Iannetta with a very free swinger in Hernandez, and haven’t improved plate patience by going with Cuddyer instead of Smith.
Come October 2012 we’ll be hearing about how O’Dowd thinks we need more players with good plate discipline. The more things change …
Ok, i rememberd where i heard it – the conference call with O’Dowd where he was talking about being dissapointed in the chemestry:
“O’Dowd has been aggressive in changing the clubhouse chemistry, saying on a conference call with season-ticket holders this week that he didn’t want “little boys.” It wasn’t directed at anyone in particular, but the group as a whole, which splintered in September.”
That quote from the call was referenced here:
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_19567230#ixzz1lTu3aE85
There was an interview with O’Dowd I believe (no time right now to look it up) that talked about the issues in the clubhouse. I believe Tulo also made mention. Perhaps someone can find it? I’ll look later if I don’t see someone post about it.
Hey jaredean, are you refering to the recent interview with Verducci?
“We stunk and it was a bad clubhouse,” O’Dowd said of the 2011 Rockies. “Last year guys went their own way and didn’t hold each other accountable. We pride ourselves on an ‘all-for-one’ mentality. And last year we didn’t have that. It bugged everybody — not just me.”
SOURCE: Tom Verducci
I predict Iannetta and Hernandez have good years. Iannetta will walk a ton and get driven in by the Angels’ leadoff hitter, thats great but the patience doesn’t pay off in the score card when you’ve got the pitcher behind you. That’s my biggest problem with him. I’d rather he use his talents to drive in runs, not flip lineups…but I guess that’s not a sophisticated way to measure a player.
Hernandez on the other hand will actually play well enough to not be designated as the 8th hole hitter because he’s actually going to swing the bat and hit the ball which will actually translate into runs on the board rather than simply “I drew a walk, I did my job” and leave it for the next guy to actually produce.
Thanks, Jaredean. So we do have some cryptic comments about clubhouse chemistry from Rockies management. And I think it’s safe to assume that the players who are gone were some of the perceived problems.
And I will say that Seth Smith struck me as a guy who didn’t exactly give us maximum effort at all times, particularly in the field. Not so Iannetta or even Stewart, who just seemed confused rather than unmotivated.
We also don’t know to what extent some of these comments may have to do with off-the-field behavior. Who’s staying out late partying, who’s showing up early for games to take extra fielding or batting practice, etc. I don’t deny that stuff may have a big influence on a team over or underperforming it’s talent level, and the Rockies clearly underperformed last year.
I think I saw some lackluster stuff from Stewart in the field. I always felt like he gave good effort going for balls hit to his right but towards his left he sort of left it all to Troy to get. Just a small thing I noticed over the years.
I think the clubhouse issues were more around some players being too soft or playing with no emotion. Not necessarily bad attitudes.