2011 was supposed to be an aberration. The team that was picked to win the division on the way to the World Series, by many a prognosticator, ended up in the basement with many fingers pointing all different directions.
Not a problem. Chalk it up to team culture and clean house was the answer.
So, the monster trade of Ubaldo Jimenez at the end of July, shedding slothful servants in the clubhouse was the mantra for the winter meetings. Under-performing Stewart? Gone. Under-performing Iannetta? Gone. Smith, Street, Reynolds, Hammel, Lindstrom, etc. etc. etc.
It was a Winter Meeting fire sale.
The culture was wrong. The team was suffering because of under-performing from the field and on the mound. The team just wasn’t living up to its 2007 high water mark.
Ah, that 2007 season and its baby brother, 2009. The mighty albatross of expectations that fans have been holding onto like a ratty baby blanket. Those magical seasons will never happen again, really shouldn’t happen again, because both were “lightning in a bottle” type of moments. One season needed a miracle, going 21 – 1 to take the big stage while the other hinged on the firing of Clint Hurdle, after going 18 – 28, to spark another unlikely run to the playoffs.
Do the Rockies need to suck to succeed?
PITCHING
2010 was the “Year of the Pitcher”, and the Rockies had the best arm on the mound.
Pitching wins games. Everything is contingent on pitching. You build a team around pitching.
Pick your phrase, but please don’t forget the meaning behind the words: Pitching is king.
So, when you enter a season and the one single unifying voice between the news outlets and fan site combined is that the pitching for the Rockies was completely 
questionable and it would be a miracle if they competed at all, you have to wonder why anyone would be surprised after the 33rd game of the season that our starting pitching is a combined 6 – 12 and scraping bottom in almost all of the statistics.
One of the biggest red flags? Matt Reynolds has the most wins on the team. A reliever has more wins than any of the starters.
HITTING
Is it the Coors Field Effect?
Fans hate the phrase. The Hall of Fame will have to deal with it come Helton inductee time. Is the altitude of Coors to blame for the team hitting going missing on the road?
Is it mental? Is it physical?
There are those that say it doesn’t matter. And those that say it does.
But, one thing is for certain: this team isn’t hitting on the road.
With one of the most impressive lineups since the Blake St. Bombers, at least on paper, hitting wasn’t supposed to be an issue this year. All of the trades made during the winter meetings seemed to focus around shedding under-performing bats and bringing in lumber that could launch the ball to new heights.
Cuddyer, Hernandez, Scutaro and Blake were all supposed to beef up a lineup in ways we hadn’t seen in years.
For the most part it worked.
Blake was a bust and Scutaro hasn’t been anywhere near his 2011 numbers, but Cuddyer and Hernandez both proved they belonged on a team that honored hitting above all else.
And then a funny thing happened on the way to the scoreboard.
Tulo didn’t show up.
You can’t blame the Coors Effect for the approach you get from Tulo with runners on.
You can’t blame the Coors Effect for the approach you get from Tulo with nobody on.
You can only blame Tulo for his home run or bust cuts on each and every swing.
Troy Tulowitzki, as anyone can see, is going through another rough spot at the plate. His desire to be the best that ever played is quickly turning him into an over swinging bundle of negative. He knows it and we know it. Tracy just seemed to figure it out as he moved Tulo down to fifth in the lineup.
But, Tulo isn’t alone. Tulo isn’t the reason we put up 19 hits over the three game sweep to the Dodgers.
So, is it acclimating after altitude that has our boys bumbling? Or, is it just not understanding how to hit in key situations?
Say what you will about Jim Tracy as a manager, but his mini speech to the team in San Diego about treating the next few ballparks differently, by not going for broke at every bat, was sage advice.
Too bad it fell on deaf ears.
FIELDING
If there was one thing that was key coming into 2012, one aspect of the game that was a given, it was the gloves. If pitching wins games then fielding saves pitching.
You can’t strike out every hitter every time.
Balls get put into play. Gloves have to be used.
The Rockies have an excellent history of great fielding. Helton is one of the best gloves you will ever find at first base in the history of the game. Tulo, CarGo and Dex were all considered impenetrable if a ball was hit their way.
So, with a struggling presence on the mound then every single ball launched into the field of play becomes even more important. Getting that ball to the proper bag becomes a must.
In 2007 the Rockies made MLB history with their fielding percentage at .989. Last year they were 13th at .984. This season so far they are 23rd with a .979 and 26 errors. They only made 68 errors in all of 2007.
It is worth repeating: if we aren’t pitching well then we better darn well be fielding.
MANAGING
Many fans call for the head of the team when they body isn’t winning. The shouts for Tracy, Apodaca and O Dowd’s heads on a plate get louder with every loss, especially series losses, not to mention sweeps.
On the one hand, it is Tulo’s hand on the bat making those horrible swings, not Carney’s.
On the other hand, it is Esmil on the mound walking batter after batter while Tracy is just sitting there watching.
The players are the ones playing the game, this is true. The argument that the owners and managers shouldn’t be the scapegoats for poor play is only as true when viewed against the idea that the players are only as good as the support they are given. If that support isn’t solid then they are setup to fail.
So, how is this team setup to fail? It all comes back to pitching. Pitching was the big question mark and management knew that as much as anyone.
If the owners wanted to give their guys a chance on the field, they would have brought in the best on the mound.
It is completely demoralizing having to field behind starters that have consistently failed to see a seventh inning or later.
When all is said and done, pitching is king and pitching is what has been neglected for too long. Coors will only see the loyal gracing the seats and eating the treats for so long before they recognize that their hard-earned dollars aren’t being spent judiciously. Ownership needs to recognize what every single player, reporter and fan has been saying all along: you can’t win games with our rotation on a consistent basis. Period.
I’d like to thank D The Ranter for the use of the images above. His blog Rockpile Rant has not only excellent insight from an excellent fan, but some of the coolest pictures you will ever see. Go check it out!
Great article I still say its Tracy and O’Dowd, there was a reason tracy was fired by the Dodgers and Pirates 4 out of his last 6 managerial seasons have been below .500 he makes bad in game decisions and his lineup decisions are very poor at times IMO, O’Dowd is an idiot plain and simple NO ROTATION HELP IN THE OFFSEASON WTF!!!
I’m tired of hearing the excuse that Tulo is “trying too hard”. It reminds me of a AA little league game where a kid swings and misses by a foot a pitch over his head, and all the well meaning parents say “wow, great swing” and “way to be a hitter, Billy.”
Tulo is a professional and should understand about taking a controlled swing, situational hitting, and letting the game come to him. If he hasn’t learned that by now he never will.
I guess I would expect Tulo’s big brother…Jason Giambi…to take him aside and explain some of these things to him, as well as anyone else on the team that is struggling. Isn’t that one of the main reasons that he was brought back??
So to keep the discussion on track, the question is “what’s wrong with the Rox?” I have a couple of big picture “wrongs:”
1. Pitching development. We’ve drafted some guys generally considered pretty darn good by most scouts (most recently, Matzak and Friedrich come to mind). They get into the organization and tend to make a splash very early, then regress…..in some cases very significantly. This makes me think the Rox are trying to make major mechanical changes to them. Take a guy in the 1st round that you like……as is! I’m OK with taking someone with high upside but awful mechanics in the 20th round, but not the 1st.
2. Player development – in general. I’m leaning towards thinking the scouting might be OK (except the Longoria bust), but we’re just not developing the players as well as some other organizations.
3. This isn’t “big picture,” but too much lineup tinkering with the major league club.
I’m not a Tracy fan, and have been saying for a while that it’s time for a change of Managers. I’ve held out hope for DOD, but I’m beginning to think it’s time for a system wide restructuring, and that has to start at the top. I’d look to organizations known for success in small(ish) markets and known for player development to find a new GM (Tampa, Texas, Atlanta, etc.). Lets find a guy like Alex Anthopoulos and let him begin rebuilding the structure. I’ve noted numerous times that Mike Maddux is an excellent Managerial candidate.
Just my 2 cents!
I agree with your comments on Tulo. I think the first step to fixing this team and Tulo is moving him out of the cleanup spot. I am very glad Tracy was finally able to do that yesterday.
This is the lineup I would like to see:
EYJ CF It is time to give him a shot!
Scutaro 2B
Cuddyer RF
Cargo LF
Tulo SS
Helton 1b
Hernandez C
Herrera 3B
This group in the rotation needs to step up!!! This rotation has to have Guthrie, Chacin, and De La Rosa pitching well. The Rockies should plan Chacin’s return to be in the same week as DLR’s. Moyer, Pomeranz, White, Freidrich need to realize that they are pitching for that last spot in the rotation and need to have urgency and fight!
Get the rotation set as Chacin, Guthrie, DLR, Nicasio, and whoever, and then get the lineup set and see what kind of success this team can have. If not good by trade deadline, then it should be time to un-load.
In the middle of a terrible Rockies losing stretch no one wants to hear it however really it is NOT the starting pitching, as they have pitched just about as expected sans the ace (Guthrie) and his bike accident.
If you look at the statistics the Rockies offense seems on paper to be fine, however it is far from being what it should be. All those extra hits and runs in those home game blow outs cumulatively hide some awful hitting performances away from Coors. Nineteen hits in three games at Dodgers statium really isn’t that bad until you realize that they didn’t have to face Kershaw or Billingsley.
So here are my grades for 2012 so far:
Offense: C however it has to be a B or better as well as consistent on the road for the Rockies to compete for a playoff spot.
Defense: D and it really has been worse than that when you consider all the plays that really should have been errors in addition to the ones recorded.
Pitching: D+ but that is what everyone expected anyway without DLR or Ubaldo.
My point here is that the offense and defense have the talent to be solidly at the B level, and the pitching has the talent to improve once the #1 and #2 starters (DLR and Guthrie) start pitching again but unless the offense and defense improve it is not going to matter.
BTW can I just mention here again how much I hated the Guthrie for Hammel/Lindstrom trade? It is not that I don’t like Guthrie because I do, but rather that a so called pitching starved team like the Rockies should NOT be in the business of giving up two solid MLB pitchers for one very average one – that just should not happen!
Hammel wasn’t consistent for years and had never pitched the whole year. Lindstrom was a bit inconsistent. He didn’t strike out batters as much as you think he would given his decent velocity. Rockies was looking for a starater who can give us 200 innings year after year. So I think it was a good trade. If you haven’t heard, Hammel has got knee problems and he’s missed his last start. After only four starts you are calling Guthrie below average? Too small of a sample.
Guthrie is going to be a free agent after this season, so if they were looking for someone “who can give us 200 innings year after year” they looked in the wrong place.
That would be “very average” not below average based on Guthrie’s recent past performance – still a terrible trade!
So now the Rockies are left with Pomeranz throwing those precious 2012 innings (remember the FO says he can’t throw more than 150 innings this year) pitching shutout baseball at the AAA level. I know that this should make all the sense in the (baseball)world, but I just do NOT get it. Decisions like this should get somebody fired?
Just based on what we do know, Pomeranz is a better MLB starter (right now) than either White or Friedrich, so let’s put the best starting pitcher (of the three) in AAA???
I find it interesting that the fielding has gotten worse each year that JT has been here.
Yep……and marginal (I’m being kind) pitching needs excellent fielding to have a chance.
Base running too.
It might be easier to name what isn’t wrong with the team…then again, I’m not finding much.
I think Dinger is generally doing a good job.
Dinger…classic.
I’ve been critical ………. but it’s also important to be fair and point out some good things.
First, I think the Hernandez/Rosario catching combo is doing well, and is being managed well by Tracy. Rosario is obviously rough around the edges defensively, but his offense and energy are unmistakable.
Second, I think the Cuddyer signing (even if the price was high) is working out really well. The guy is a player. Love his attitude. The jury still out on the other deals, but Tyler Colvin has a chance to be very worthwhile.
Go ahead and give me the thumbs down; I’m expecting at least ten of them. I will come across sounding like a Rox organization defender or putting positive spins on everything that has gone wrong.
Starting pitching: It has been a mess no doubt about it, but we do have reinforcements that we did not have last year. Throw in a couple of missed starts by Guthrie that kept the mess grating bigger than it should have. Now we have reset the rotation: Nicasio, White, Friedrich, Guthrie, and Moyer who should be in the bullpen by now. Pomeranz, Chatwood, and/or De la Rosa (June 2 start vs. Dodgers is being looked at) are waiting in the wings to see whom they need to replace to mop up the mess. Guthrie, Nicasio, Friedrich, and the others (DLR, Chatwood, White) have shown flashes to give us quality starts. Moyer has continually guaranteed early bullpen work which is why he needs to be eliminated from the rotation. Guthrie, Nicasio, and Friedrich had just started to pitch together as part the rotation and we haven’t had the chance to get a string of quality starts just yet. Everyone is jumping and hollering that the rotation is a major failure. We need to be patient and let the new rotation take hold. Too early to call it a failure; year to date it’s a D- rating, but I forecast a B rating as soon as Moyer is out of the rotation.
Bullpen: The picture should be clear by now who is effective and who’s not. A simple barometer of effectiveness is the BB ratio. Yesterday exposed Rogers and Reynolds and they should be on their way out soon. You can’t come in and walk the first batter. Brothers is a little up and down; move him to 6th and 7th inning low stress innings to tighten him up. Outman has just come up so we need some more time to get a read on Outman. We also need more time evaluate Carlos Torre and Adam Ottavino. If they don’t make at least two changes within the next week, I can’t defend the Rox’ handling of the bullpen personnel. If they eliminate the guys walking two batters an inning and the starters go deeper (which they will now that they have pushed the reset button except for Moyer) then we will have an outstanding bullpen.
Hitting: I have no qualms with their lineup. They have usually hit when they needed to but our own pitching has made their good production look like they were shut out. Now I suggest three adjustments. Yes I am a staunch Tulo defender, but I’ll have to agree with other posters that moving Tulo out of the cleanup spot might be beneficial similar to what the Cards did to Matt Holliday last year. I have a better idea than those posted earlier. Move Tulo to the 2-hole like he did in 2007 and let the guys behind him do the heavy hitting. We have waited long enough on Fowler so time to hit the reset button and put Colvin in CF. He will strike out half of the time, but when he doesn’t he can rattle the pitchers. So I can live with his Ks. Finally, Chris Nelson/Pacheco/Herrera musical chair game is going to end come June. None of them stood out as of today. Time to bring up Nolan Arenado. Even if he doesn’t rake like he’s been raking at the lower levels, I’d rather get him some experience now than later even if he turns out to have about the same production as the 3B committee.
Defense: You are what you are. I notice most of the errors occur when the pitchers start walking everybody and it’s hard to stay focused when you are standing out in the field for extended periods of time. We have the talent and we just need to tighten up the focus with help from the hurlers on the mound.
I’m not too crazy about JT but I don’t blame him for the cards he was dealt. At least he’s been able to play Draw poker. Toss out pitchers and get new pitchers to get a better hand. I hope he would make a couple of adjustments in the lineup that I suggested in the previous paragraph. He’s already playing Colvin more and Fowler less. He at least moved Tulo to 5th but I think 2nd is better. The Arenado alarm clock is about to go off.
Unlike most avid Rockies fans, I’m taking a wait-and-see approach. We hit the rotation reset, took a look at the bullpen, and made a couple of subtle adjustments in the lineup. A major difference this year over last is that we have a lot of reinforcements. We had scrap last year as reinforcement parts. I can see the daylight at the end of the tunnel. All it takes is a sweep or two on the road (i.e. 2009 starting in Houston last game, sweep 4 games in STL, etc) and we will be back on track. Way too early to be calling for everyone’s heads.
RMH, Good post. My sentiments exactly. Way to early to start blowing things up as has been suggested. That would only be a knee jerk reaction. Good business practices don’t adhere to fork lift changes at the first sign of any adversity.
If we go back to 2009 at about this time of year or later in May the Rox were worse off than this team is now. Besides, I think this team is much better than that ’09 squad and there is much more depth in the organization.
Love Tulo in the two-hole. Also agree on the starting pitching. While Moyer was a feel good story over the first couple of weeks he’s now just in the way of seeing our young arms develop. There seems to be the question of who Guts replaces when he comes back and I think what’s best for the team is to get Moyer out of there and keep the young guys. Whichever young arms don’t get it done between now and when DLR (and I’m thinking Chacin will be back around the same time) then send em back for more seasoning.
While I think Tracy and the coaches should always bear some responsibility, they ultimately don’t have as much say on who to draft/sign/trade. Which brings me to the scouts and DOD. They’re inability to let go of certain players while they still have value is infuriating. And the unwillingness, in the case of Esmil. It’s obvious that the kid just can’t seem to get it done here but since he’s out of options we still feel the need to throw him in there to get shelled for 2+ runs an outing. Just cut bait on the kid and wish him well. (fyi: I think he can do very well for someone, we just can’t afford to keep him around with what he’s currently giving us.)
Rockies 10 game winning streak begins tonight.
NOT!
Jared, really nice summary.
Compare 2009. Why can’t we turn it around just like we did then?
Well, I suppose we could. But 2009 was special for the Rockies because the top 5 starters made all but 7 starts that year. That’s right, only 7 starts from the likes of Jose Contreras (2) and Frankie Morales (2). This year we’ve already missed 5 starts from our top 5, we’ll keep missing starts from Chacin until he finds whatever he lost. Sure, we expect to get De La Rosa back, but Pomeranz has been iffy, nobody expects a full season at any level of success from Moyer, and then Guthrie goes and falls off a bike.
“Much more depth in the organization?” Where are they hiding it? Through trades we’ve accumulate 3 first round pitchers (4 if you count Ottavino), but 2 are already on the big club and the other two aren’t exactly setting the minors on fire. Remember we had the 2nd player chosen overall waiting in the wings in 2009. Greg Reynolds was his name. And we had Greg Smith, the earlier version of Guillermo Moscoso, a guy who put up superficially nice stats in Oakland but really was a marginal big leaguer. Add to that the lack of positional depth. Arenado is the only blue chip position player above A ball. Rosario was another, but he’s already up.
So there really isn’t a whole lot of help on the way from the minors. Some of the lower guys are promising, from Cabrera (AA, and I like him) to Bettis (hurt) to Trevor Story (really young), but everyone has promising players in Low A ball. Hector Gomez was promising as all heck a couple years ago. Ian Stewart was the best thing since sliced bread 7 years ago.
All is not hopeless. There’s a core here of Tulo and CarGo in their primes, there’s some really nice complementary players like Rosario and Fowler (and maybe even Colvin), and there’s a decent supply of B grade type prospects coming up like Wheeler. But the help isn’t on it’s way before next year or even 2014. That’s why I say do what we did in 2004-5 with the young players. 2 years later we had discovered a bunch of young guys who could really play like Holliday and Atkins. (Atkins was really good for a year or two if folks can remember that far back.) I think that’s kind of fun to watch. But you know what? O’Dowd and Tracy wouldn’t be around to see the fruits of that strategy in 2015, not following a couple 67 win seasons. So they keep trying to piece things together like the Broncos in the last few Shanahan years to finish respectably and keep their jobs. And that may mean missing your chance to commit to being really good in the future.
Agreeing with you more and more Ag,except for Fowler.He is late inning defensive replacement player at best in my mind.He simply kills the offense,especially on the road.
I found it interesting that JT used the exact word I used in chat during the game yesterday. “Embarrassing”
I thought the media would be tough on the Rockies after they way they have been losing games. I did expect to hear stuff like “No lead is big enough for the Rockies” but I didn’t expect to hear, not even from the national talking heads, stuff like ” The Rockies season will be done before the end of May”
I think it’s done NOW!!!!!!!!!!!
For those of you calling for management’s heads on a plate, DOD has said there will be no firings in the near future:
http://tinyurl.com/roxDODfire
I don’t normally consider myself a fair weather fan, but I am considering purchasing Mlb.tv and watching the Indians games rather than the Rockies with my 3 hours a night I can dedicate to baseball.
say it ain’t so Prog, say it ain’t so…
i can understand getting frusterated and not wanting to watch because the stress level is too much…personally i’ve tried to catch every game in one form or another over the years and don’t see myself changing that, but one thing I have strived to do is not get so emotionally caught up in it…
I remember in ’09 when we were playing the Phils in the NLDS and after we took the 2nd game (beating Hamels!) I remember thinking, “man, we got this – we are gonna win at home and it is gonna be sweeeeet”…Well, we all know what happened and the way it went down…Street had only blown 2 saves all season and I trusted him with the ball.
After the play offs ended I must have been VERY down because I blew off going to a concert i’d been talking about for months and just moped around the house…it was pretty hard to get over…my wife was patient, but said that it might be better if i didn’t get so wrapped up in the games (regular season and post) because it really affected me a lot…
I tried really hard in 2010 to separate myself a bit more and by last season I didn’t let a loss kill me as much as it had…the drawback? The wins weren’t the same either – i wasn’t jumping off the couch after incredible innings, yelling for anyone to hear…I was very excited, but not quite to the level I had been…it is a hard tradeoff to be sure…
I still get VERY involved when at Coors, so that will never change, but for the sanity of my family, work and myself i had to disasociate myself a bit…i still get involved and my heart stops a bit during the tense moments – but I don’t feel that same depression i was feeling for years…
Good Post! I did some very foolish things after that second blown save agains the Phillies. I still have a hole in a closet door that I can look at and remind myself of that night.
I do enough team jumping in the NFL, Rockies, Nuggets, and Huskers will always be my teams no matter how bad they may be. Must say it is going to be difficult to root for the Jets this year!!
Good post, Jared. That’s how I have to look at my love of the Rockies…..they can’t be the barometer for my life. “When they win, I’m happy and when they lose, I’m depresssed”. THAT had to change. I love to watch baseball and I live in Colorado so they are my team. I can’t just randomly pick another team and become a fan (but I understand the temptation to do so). What I’m struggling with is that baseball is my sole hobby from April to October and I’m not enjoying the games. I devote a lot of my free time to the game – and I’m sad and feel foolish doing so this year.
You gotta jump on during the game and chat with RWO fans…we make it a bit easier to enjoy (misery loves company)…
I know God and family comes first but baseball is a near third. :lol Honestly, these losses, especially embarrassing ones, drains me, as if I had a personal stake in the outcome. Its pretty absurd, but that’s how it is. I’m not sure how long I can do that without just pulling my hair out.
For those asking for DOD’s walking papers:
http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_20632368/kiszla-its-time-rockies-dan-odowd-produce-winner