Christian Friedrich did more than his part to give the Rockies a chance tonight. He accomplished several feats, in only his second major league game, that have been elusive from the Rockies starters. Friedrich struck out 10 batters, a team high, while going seven innings. He only gave up one walk as well as one run, a solo shot to Blanco in the sixth.
He left the game with the score tied 1-1, the equalizer coming from a monster shot thanks to Wilin Rosario, hoping the team would pick him up for the lead and eventual win in the top of the eighth.
Not only would the Rockies fail to score, but bad luck would strike yet again and again.
First it would be a foul ball smashed into the dugout hitting Troy Tulowitzki in the leg that would signal the beginning of the end for the team. They would fail to score, ending the hope of a win for Christian.
The bad luck would continue in the bottom of the eighth as Rex Brothers came into the game to replace Friedrich. He only faced one batter, and he made his pitches, but a slapped ball to Scutaro was just outside of his range to allow him to throw out Blanco in time.
Belisle replaced Brothers and he also pitched very well, but things did not go his way either.
First was a bunt up the first base line that danced just to the left of the chalk. Rosario fielded it at the last possible minute but made a poor throw to Herrera who was covering first, tossing the ball over his head.
Blanco moved to third on the Rosario error.
Belisle did get Cabrera to fly out to Gonzalez for the first out, but Posey singled up the middle to score Blanco and break the 1-1 tie.
The damage could have been minimal after a Pagan fly-out, but again a ball found a hole between Nelson and Scutaro to score another run.
The inning finally came to an end on a ground-out, but not after the Giants put two on the board.
The Rockies would rally in the ninth with a Johnny Herrera one out single and a walk to Giambi. Scutaro would double on an error by Arias, bringing home Herrera and putting pinch runner Alex White at third. But a strikeout by Dex and a ground out by Nelson sent the team packing and putting another loss their column, their 12th loss in their last 15 games.
The only good news is that Tulo’s x-rays were negative. He thought he broke it after the shot hit off his left fibula:
When I went to the on-deck circle, I was sure it was [broken] because I couldn’t feel anything…I guess you have a nerve in there like the elbow and that’s what caused it to go numb. I know I am going to be really sore tomorrow. I don’t know after that. I am not a doctor. But I’m glad that it’s not worse.
Freidrich is a stud!! That is all I really feel like saying right now.
“Freidrich is a stud!! That is all I really feel like saying right now.” ditto
The really good news is that Christian Friedrich is pitching SO much better than his last two seasons in AA Tulsa would lead to you to believe was even possible (at AA let alone MLB). However the bad news is that his MLB success is now blowing some huge holes in the evaluating technique for starting pitchers based on the Tulsa stats theory.
Will the league catch up to him and figure out his stuff? I honestly don’t know the answer to that, but I love the fact that he works fast, throws strikes and doesn’t panic when a batter gets on base. Although I will admit that the Giants lineup last night sans Posey was basically AAAA players for the most part.
I wrote this somewhat in jest about the left handed starters about six months or so ago, however I am starting to take my latest theory slightly more seriously. Has any recent MLB team ever fielded an all left handed starting rotation:
1. DLR
2. Pomeranz (Cleveland #1 pick)
3. Friedrich (Rockies #1 pick)
4. Outman (Oakland #1? pick)
5. Cabrera (led ALL minor leagues in Ks in 2011)
And the Rockies still have three more potential left handed replacements coming from the minors with Schmidt (Angels? #1 pick) by 2013, Anderson (Rockies #1 pick) by 2014 and Matzek (Rockies #1 pick) by 2015, if he can ever find the plate with that heater.
By any reasonable measure that is alot of left handed starting pitcher talent and depth!
Better fix my errors: Josh Outman was a 10th rounder originally drafted by Philadelphia, and Nick Schmidt was drafted in the 1st round by San Diego.
GREAT POST
With Guthrie being activated tonight, the question is who will be removed from the roster to make room? My guess is that E. Rogers may be DFAd. You hate to lose an arm like his, but I hope they try to sneak him through and no one claims him so he can go down to CS. We’ll see.
Witha that 96 mph heater there is no way that Rogers clears waivers!
Somebody like the Royals or the Twins will take that gamble.
Hey, i’m willing to try the all lefty thing. Whatever it takes.
Offense is again our main concern, as it always seems to be when we’re on a road trip.
20 runs scored on this west coast trip over 7 games. Less than 3 runs per game, and that’s including the relative “offensive outbursts” of 6 runs in the final SD game and a shocking 5 runs against Ted Lilly. And with the possible exception of Volquez in Game 1 on the trip, we haven’t faced anyone’s best pitcher. It’s all been #3-5 starters:
Volquez
Suppan (shut us out! 37 year old guy who spent all of last year in AAA putting up fairly crappy numbers)
Bass
Capuano (yeah, he’s hot, but still .. not Kershaw)
Harang
Lilly (Rockie-killer)
Vogelsong
They tried to restructure the lineup to avoid this kind of collapse: Scutaro because he puts the ball in play/works the pitcher, Cuddyer because he’s a solid, line-drive hitter not swinging for the fences, Hernandez because he’s going to try to do something instead of standing there waiting for Ball 4 (or striking out looking), and … the results are exactly the same. I’ve been very critical of O’Dowd here. I think the “clubhouse culture” thing is nonsense peddled to unsophisticated fans to make them feel as if management is addressing root problems. But I would have thought that guys like Scutaro and Cuddyer would really improve our road performance over “feast or famine” types (Stewart, Iannetta). I thought maybe that would make us a somewhat worse home offense but better on the road in pitcher’s parks. But no. Same old Rockies. Is it something about putting on the Rockies uniform that causes this? I’ve got to think it’s the Coors Field hangover effect, but even that doesn’t make a lot of sense since our offense started it’s anemic road performance in Houston BEFORE we’d even played a single game at Coors. I think O’Dowd made mistakes, but he had no reason to think a road performance like this was going to happen again.
This is how predictably bad this club has become: I turned off the tv after the top of the 8th. I knew it was over. I agree that Friedrich looked tremendous. At least they couldn’t hang a loss on him. Like Agbayani points out, we changed the team and yet we end up with the same results. We changed the hitting coach and we get the same results. I’m not a Jim Tracy fan, but I don’t think changing the manager would get us any different results. They just need to win some of these games. The Nicasio gem against the Dodgers and last night’s Friedrich game should be wins. We’d still be griping, but at least we’d have two fewer losses in this current stretch of misery. Any half-decent team wins those two one-run loss games.
What i find confusing is the fact that the rockies were not expected to map the playoffs this year. So when tracy took over in 2009 we made the playoffs, playoffs were expected in 2010 and 2011 (which we did not make and underachieved those years) so we have steadily got worse and worse since tracy has taken the reins and expectations have decreased! the way the players were managed and taken care of was quite abysmal in some part. Is that not a slap in the face of the Monforts does that not show you the problem. racy and O’Dowd are the problem.
Article in the denver post O’Dowd said quote ‘we don’t do business around here like that’ when referring to a question on is a shake up coming staff wise. How can he say something like that he’s not Brian Cashman or Theo Upstein we are not the yankees he does not deserve the right to say something like that he’s achieved very little since being a GM made terrible decisions and sucks at his job, he should doing everything in his power to steady the ship
I feel for Tulo he said last night he understands the criticism from the fans and media etc he said he knew the expectations on him and what he signed up for (10 year contract) at least we know with tulo he does not lack effort and ill do everything in his power to regain form as for fowler he just hasn’t improved at all!!!!
My only cavaet to my thoughts is this: I like these guys. I really do. From O’Dowd on down to Justin the Bat Boy. For 81 days of the summer, I can take my boys to 20th and Blake, point to any Rockie, and say “There is nothing wrong with striving to be like him”. So, yeah, for me…there is some currency in having a quality character team. And the same comment about Tulo trying hard can be said about DOD or anyone else. Nothing is for lack of effort on this team.
All that said- they are still not a good team. One day, I go from screaming to get rid of Tracy, and the next I’m thinking that no matter who the manager is…he can’t get Cargo to stop swinging at low and away in the dirt, or Dexter from striking out, or Tulo from blowing it in key situations. It’s like groundhog day every day. Troy Renck has the easiest job in the world- keep recycling old Tracy quotes and how Tulo will break out sometime, etc, etc, etc.
I just wonder how it stops. I’m tired of the “early inthe season” excuse, patience, etc. No- there is no time to be patient, and we need a sense of urgency. It’s like a CEO joining an earnings call and saying it’s still too early for estimates…be patient, Wall Street.
Someone needs to call a spade and spade in that clubhouse and say the truth- we are one of the bottom 10 teams in baseball. No more “hoping” to get better, and “being” patient…just go produce…and improve upon your pathetically abysmal performance this year.
Go break a bat…throw something…hire a woman manager…I don’t care. Just get it done and stop telling me it will get better.
Mic drop…out.
BOOM!
On the rare occasion when Dexter makes contact he hits Tulo with a line drive. Sad.
I’m curious. If you look at say Helton’s stats and look at say Tulo’s stats and look at say Fowler’s stats … are Fowler’s that bad compared to the others or are they reasonably close?
stewart made a nice play:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21456745&topic_id=29461918&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_21456745&v=3
Chris has actually been pretty good at defense lately, although he still can’t throw it accurately to first, but as long as Todd is there (and the 1st base blue is in the wrong spot) he will get his outs…
Raysfan, excellent question. When I have some time I’ll figure out by what percentage key players are over or under performing our reasonable expectations for them. I think that gives us a much better sense of where the problems have been than simply saying Cargo’s been awesome” or Fowler’s sucks.”. I say stuff like that all the time on the game chats, but if we’re trying to figure out what’s gone wrong it isn’t very enlightening.
As a starting point, let’s look at OPS+. Basically OPS (OBP + SLG prcentage) put onto a scale where 100 is average, and higher is better, adjusted to take home park into account:
CarGo: 138 (all star level)
Helton 101
Cuddyer 101 (not good to be league average at an offense heavy position like 1b or RF, but not bad either)
Tulo 87
Dex 85
Ramon 81 (these guys are dragging us down so far)
Scutaro 60
Nelson 56 (these guys are killing us)
Good bench performers
Colvin 119
Rosario 116
Giambi 115
EY 114 (only 25 plate appearances)
So the answer to your question: only CarGo is exceeding expectations. Cuddyer is doing well relative to his teammates, but has been a bit below average for a rightfielder. Helton is doing about all we can expect of him at his age, but you do expect more pop out of your first baseman. Tulo, Fowler, and Hernandez have been equally crappy, but I expect all to move to their expected level of performance. Same with Scutaro, who’s been off to a really disappointing start. Nelson? Unfortunately, not much reason to believe he’ll rebound much since his established level of performance isn’t much better than what he’s doing so far. The bench has been a pleasant surprise so far, but all those small sample size warnings apply.
So my take? Everyone except CarGo and the bench is to blame, and pretty much in equal measure.
Interesting. Does this take position into consideration? How about payroll or batting order?
I bring this up, because without looking in up, I would pose that almost every team’s 8th or 9th hole hitters are “killing them”, otherwise they wouldn’t be hitting in those respective spots, would they?
How many teams can 3, 4, 5 players that score highly on the charts?
Do many catchers really score as high as Hernandez?
IMO you have to cross reference this by “expectation”. I think you might say that “expectation” (or potential) is irrelevant to the discussion, but “expectation” feeds directly into things like salary, batting order, playing time, etc.
My point would be that Scutaro probably is “killing” this team 2 or 3 times worse than Nelson because a)more important batting position b)higher salary consumption c)role as veteran.
Seth Smith: 123
I’m just sayin.
But seriously Ag, awesome post.
Of all of the players we traded Smith is my absolute favorite…i constantly hit the drum for Smith and was upset he wasn’t played daily…i felt that he had a lot more to show us as a team, but wasn’t getting game practice against lefties and that helped his average tank…
Over his past 12 games Smith is hitting .351 (13 for 37) and was the hero Monday against the A’s:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/20120515seth_smiths_bat_leads_athletics_to_win_over_angels/srvc=home&position=recent
Prog, things like batting order and salary don’t factor in. They do in other measures, and I’ll poke around some to find interesting metrics that take those things into account.
You’re right: catchers don’t hit much. So relative to his position he hasnt been that bad.
To see how a really great hitting team compares, here’s the Rangers starters:
Napoli 126
Moreland 104
Kindler 121
Andrus 121
Beltre 121
Murphy 103
Hamilton 240 (not a typo)
Cruz 100
Young 89
Wow.
Of course, the poor start to the season is really frustrating. But what is doubly frustrating is that I don’t see where help comes from. I can see some help coming in the starting rotation with DLR, Pomeranz, and Chatwood, and later on with Cabrarea and Bettis. I can seem some bullpen help coming from CS and Tulsa. But position player help seems a long way off. We have talked about Arenado taking the job at 3B, but after a strong start he has slumped, so it may be that he’s not going to arrive until the Tulsa season is over. The only position player at CS who seems to be having a very good season at bat is McBride, but I don’t have the sense that he is more than a reserve player at the major league level. Other guys at Tulsa, such as Ruttledge, are doing OK, but not really distinguishing themselves. Corey Dickerson seems to be having a great season for Modesto, but he’s years away from being a major leaguer. Several of our best outfield prospects have had their seasons delayed due to injury.
So, it seems that we are left with what we have right now, which isn’t great. Colvin needs to get more playing time over Fowler. We need to see what he can do. Rosario needs to play at least twice a week and keep improving. Third base seems like a black hole right now. Agbayani didn’t post numbers for Pacheco and Herrera, but I doubt that they are any better than Nelson’s. It’s a killer if you don’t have a 3B who can hit, but I don’t see an answer there until Arenado is ready to be a Rockie. Frustrating.
Johnny “Sparkplug” Herrera: 90
Jordan Pacheco: 48
Yeah, Johnny is off to a really nice start … for him. That 90 is, of course, only 90% as good as an average player, and the average STARTER is even better. But I’ll take his hitting and his glove over Nelson.
At the start of the season I said that I’d bet that Iannetta-Smith-Stewart would outperform Hernandez-Cuddyer-Nelson. Now, other than Smith none of these guys is off to a particularly good start. But guess what? The old Rockies ARE doing somewhat better than the new Rockies. And the A’s even have a winning record despite the big hit they took to their “clubhouse culture” when Smith arrived.
McBride is turning into an interesting throw-in in the Ubaldo deal, but he basically would fit in the Giambi role so we don’t have room for him. The Sky Sox don’t even know where to put him most days — he’s even reverted back to catching a game or two, his original position — shades of Jordan Pacheco position confusion? They can’t play him at 1B because the Rockies Manager For Life’s Son is currently firmly entrenched there, along with his .216/.270/.319 hitting line … I’m all for feel-good stories, but sometimes the Rockies organization seems to take that to extremes, don’t they?
And Julian, I’m all for Colvin getting his chances, but I’d use him to spell Helton more than anyone else. Todd’s history is that he can’t make it through the season, and he’s the only one of CarGo-Fowler-Cuddyer-Helton that really shouldn’t figure in our plans beyond this year.