Dexter Fowler rolled his ankle in the first inning last night…in the dugout. He caught his cleat on the steps which caused a “slight roll” in his ankle, so that is why he isn’t starting tonight. Herrera, on the other hand, has been placed on the 15-day DL with a right hamstring strain. DJ LeMahieu has been recalled and will be available tonight.
The team faces Zambrano with Alex White (0-3, 5.09) on the mound.
Today seems like the “Dick Monfort Tour” as he visited the MLB Fan Cave today in NY and he will be on the Rockies Root Sports pregame show at 4:30.
For those hoping he will make some sort of announcement about that firings are on the horizon, shouldn’t hold their breath. Patrick Saunders posted an article last night that quoted Monfort as saying:
I have had people get in my face and say, ‘You’ve got to do this and do that.’ And believe me, I understand the fans’ frustration…I know everybody wants a fall guy and everybody wants blood. I just don’t think it’s appropriate to do…If this is anybody’s fault, it’s mine. I will take it right square between the middle of the eyes…He’s a tremendous asset…I can’t think of a general manager in baseball that’s as good as him. Granted, I don’t know all of them. I do get a chance every once in a while to speak with them, but I just think (O’Dowd) is head and shoulders above…[Jim Tracy] hasn’t lost the team. That answers part of the question…I think Jim is grinding it just like anybody else…He wears every loss. We had a long talk about that, and I said, ‘You just have to shower up and go on.
There are more observations and quotes in the article, which is a good read for anyone looking for answers on how this team is being run by the owner.
One observations made, but not fleshed out in the article, would be that the team is 40 games under .500 wince late 2010. Coincidentally that is just after Keli McGregor died suddenly in April of 2010. Perhaps McGregor’s impact on this team, known to be great among owner, management and fans alike, has yet to be filled by anyone competent.
| ROCKIES (15-27) CF Eric Young, Jr. 2B Marco Scutaro LF Carlos Gonzalez SS Troy Tulowitzki 1B Jason Giambi RF Michael Cuddyer 3B Jordan Pacheco C Ramon Hernandez P Alex White (5.09 ERA) |
You know, as i was typing this pre-game and made the point about McGregor leaving a void and how it is about the same time the team went into a tailspin, it seems to make a lot of sense…He dies in April 2010 and a few months later the team starts losing WAY more than winning, which brings us to 40 games below .500…
Am i right to think this actually might be something worth looking at?
HE HASN’T BEEN REPLACED!!!
How is that possible??? Why don’t we have a team President???
Unfortunately- you are probably correct. Dick Monfort isn’t qualified to run a baseball team. I no longer mind the amount of $ spent by the owners, but the level of accountability they instill in the organization. As I believe Larry Walker once said (paraphrasing and fuzzy memory) “I couldn’t wait to sign and party with the Monfort’s in Vegas.” And now they have to go from owners to take on the role president of the team. At least they haven’t promoted DOD to that position yet! (If Dick Monfort read that, don’t get any bright ideas…_
Yeah, Mike – I’ve never seen it questioned before (them not replacing him being part of our team issues) – it just hit me when i realized his death coincided with our downfall as a team…
We need a president – instead of firing, try hiring someone to fill the BIG void!!!
Yep- hire a true president. And then hopefully he comes in and cleans house. Including the usher at the top of the section where we have a share of season tickets. She never seems happy…
JD,
Funny, I was thinking today the same thing you just mentioned concerning McGregor. He was a young, energetic, and competitive person and his death has left a considerable void in the organization. The fact that Monfort admitted that he doesn’t know many of the other GMs in MLB speaks for itself as to the direction of this team.
You may recall that a few years ago Charlie Monfort was the defacto spokesman for the Rockies, but after a series of gaffes and I believe there was a DUI thrown in there as well, he was muzzled and and now we have Dick, who was supposed to be the ‘smart’ one of the two bros. Scary isn’t it?
They do need to get a good baseball man to come in as president and clean house from DOD, JT, scouting, and player development. That way the Monforts can go back to do what they do well and count their millions they make off this team.
Great questioning, and reasoning. Just look at a couple of other teams in this town: The Broncos hire John Elway and go to the playoffs in his first year, and aquire maybe the biggest free agent ever in the NFL in Manning the next. The Nuggets get Masai Ujiri and he patiently waits for a Carmello trade that nets us several fine players and then gets McGee in here during the season. All they lack now is a true finisher. Dick needs to get a true baseball guy in here to fill the late Kelly’s shoes and get us on the right track.
Really think you are on to something here Jaredean.However it may also be emotional loss also.I read that many on the team were really tight with Kelli,including Tulo.Having lost my 92 year old mother about 18 months ago,I know its only been recently that I’ve come out of a depression and deep funk.And I knew Mom was dying,and it was a blessing she went when she did.The sudden,shocking,mind numbing loss of McGregor could still be an underlying emotional issue as much as a business issue that’s affecting this team.I’m surprised the organization didn’t offer grief counseling and some follow up!
And by the way- EY2 in center field=good. EY2 playing second where he doesn’t have the arm strength to really turn the double play=bad. Although Scutaro sucks anyway.
Just heard an interview with Cowboy and D. Monfort. Wow. His cluelessness is so evident he basically admitted that he doesn’t understand the game or how to judge who or what the weaknesses of the organization is.
Feel sorry for Tracy R. that he basically doesn’t have the freedom to ask the questions that really should be asked. Pretty much softballs.
Wonder if closing down ITR had to do with limitations that the Monforts, via Root, put to him.
Funny that even with softballs Monfort sticks his foot in his mouth.
SERIOUSLY. Our owner admitted to not knowing the business well enough to make a decision. WTF? Then sell the team to someone who cares enough to learn!
Maybe he (Monfort) knows the meat processing business and this baseball thing is just a hobby.
Actually, that’s OK, so long as as he isn’t so hopeless as to not understand he has to HIRE GOOD PEOPLE who really DO KNOW BASEBALL!! Then stay out of the way.
Not even the best CEO can know enough about any business to succeed in running a large organization personally. But he absolutely must know how to hire good people whose expertise can fill important parts of that organization. Then make sure they work together toward the right goals.
Anyone willing to suggest that, given the results over a period of years, the Monforts have hired the best people to run the Rockies? (Keli McGregor excepted)
[sound of crickets chirping]
Some quotes from Dick Monfort during pre-game:
“[last night was] just another game that sort of got away from us…I’ve never been in a business where you can point the blame at one person…I have faith in God and the game and I think it will all come out…The courageous thing to do is hang in there and keep supporting your team…Everyone is doing their job…I think I’m the first person to go…”
Not sure if those are word for word quotes (got them from @purpleordie from twitter), but should be the general overview…i missed it (grrrr) cause i didn’t realize what time it was…
Then fire yourself Dick! Faith in god and the game doesn’t equate to wins! Otherwise, wouldn’t Notre Dame always have a pretty good team?
I guess he has never been in a business where you can point blame at one person because he has always owned a business, and doesn’t realize that ultimately he IS the one to blame.
At the end of the 2002 season, three of us (all season-ticket holders) scheduled a brief meeting with Keli McGregor. He didn’t know any of us, and we were somewhat surprised he reponded positively. Regardless, we expected maybe 10 minutes of his time. Instead, we had a two-hour lunch during which we discussed many aspects of the team. It’s true that we were all uncertain about renewing our tickets, but I don’t believe other MLB team presidents meet with disgruntled customers.
I was most impressed by his candor, his sincerity and his absolute determination to improve the franchise. I can assure you I asked him several tough questions and he answered them all candidly. I walked out of his office with an appreciation I didn’t have hours earlier.
Keli was enormously impressive and I have to believe his tragic early passing has been a large factor in the Rockies’ subsequent troubles. Quite obviously, neither Monfort brother has been able to replace him in any meaningful way. Just as obviously, the team needs to fill the position with a qualified individual.
I and at least a few other people mentioned last year on ITR that the Rockies have been going downhill almost from the minute Kelli MacGregor died.
And I believe they do have a president. I think his name is Greg Fedner (may be wrong) and I think that the only thing he has in common with MacGregor is that he’s a former football player. Don’t know if he ever played baseball.
MacGregor knew baseball and he knew what winning is about. I don’t know much about the other guy. I think he was interviewed earlier this year on Root. That was the first I ever heard about him and haven’t heard anything since.
I recall this as well. Same reaction, except to add I couldn’t recall the name. What does that say?
I saw the pre-game interview and was not impressed. Not a savvy baseball man to say the least. Kind of shocking actually- lots of “I don’t know the answer” and “I’m not smart enough” etc. Thinking about this year going forward, my first best hope is a complete turnaround (highly unlikely of course) but my next choice would be an epic failure of a season. I don’t say that in bitterness – I feel like we need that in order for a big change to take place – a real shake up. The last thing I want is a disappointing, up and down season because every success will encourage management to stay the course, be patient, fiddle with the lineup a little, take credit for baby steps……ugh !!!! Just thinking of those post-game JT interviews makes me lose my lunch. So this is my attitude going forward.
I asked Troy Renck about why Keli wasn’t replaced…his reply, “Job absorbed by Monfort, other departments.”
What a bad bad decision in my mind…
Off-topic, but, following a complete game shut-out against the Rox over the weekend, Kevin Millwood throws six solid innings (3 hits, 0 ER) against a strong Rangers team. No way that we could have made some kind of compromise, salary-wise, to try to bring him back to help out the rotation??
We offered him $1 MIL and another $1 Mil in incentives…he wanted $3 Mil, so didn’t sign…the strange thing is it shows he is making only $1 Mil with Seattle, so unless he is getting $2 mil in incentives then i don’t know why he didn’t resign with the Rockies…Maybe because we didn’t court him right away he was insulted? don’t really know…
He performed “well” on a late-season audition with a club that was tanking. No way that the Rox could have dug in the corporate sofa and figured out some way to make things work out?? He probably wasn’t the end-all “answer”, but would you take his effort every fifth day versus what we have now?
If I were him, I would have been insulted, too. To me, Poker Dan may have bluffed a bit too early on that one. I like his determination.
He probably didn’t want to play for the Rockies. Just a few years ago it seemed like this was the best place to come to play ball. Now it seems like everyone wants outta here. I bet Smith, Stewart and Iannetta were happy they were traded to a different team.
Have written this here before, however Mark Ellis and Kevin Millwood could have been decent pieces for the Rockies in 2012, however basically DanO showed both of them the door on the way out by not being competitive in retaining them.
Just me but I would have signed both of them (the $s are not huge) and kept both Hammel and Lindstrom. Just my opinion but Millwood + Hammel + Linstrom > than Guthrie, even before Hammel started his Cy Young act with “my” Orioles.
Here’s what I’m afraid will happen- Monfort decides to fire himself as club president, promotes DOD to president, Bill Geivett becomes GM, and they hire some recycled manager from the good old boys club. Nothings changes, just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.
Bill Geivett is a HUGE part of the problem … strictly my opinion of course.
Actually Greg Fedner is a guy I know from Ohio. So whoever the pres is, it’s not him
Greg Feasel is the ex-football player you’re thinking of….Exec VP/CEO.
yeah! good game.
Just another “teaser” game. I refer back to the chat during the Dbacks game 1.
Yesterday we got the teaser. Next game we get the taser.
I would to play that same line up until they lose a game
But you know Tracy won’t!
Alex, thanks. Greg Fessel was the guy I was thinking of. Sounded like my friend Fedner. I guess he’s the closest thing to a president. Not sure exactly what an Exec. VP/CEO does. I think that’s Elway’s position with the Broncos but I don’t know how that translates to baseball.
Anyway a win is great. You can’t start a 10 game win streak without the first one. Pooter wants the same line up. I can guarantee you we won’t have the same lineup Friday night in Cincy. I’m sure Helton will be playing 1st and probably Dex in CF.
I know there have been lots of people down on Tulo (led by Ed the Ump) but if the team is ever going to be good he needs to play like he did tonight. One game does not a season make but if you think the team didn’t notice you weren’t watching. After he hit his HR Cargo didn’t just high five him, he hugged him.
What’s killing this club, Part 1, or A Fair Assessment of the Best GM in Baseball: Bad Drafts.
O’Dowd took over as GM after the 1999 season, so his first draft was in 2000. Since then, his draft picks that were actually signed by the Rockies (there were a number he was unable to sign) have contributed the following total Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) in their big league careers (this is total MLB, not just with the Rockies):
2000: 15.2 (best pick? Barmes at 10.4. Atkins/Hawpe provided the rest of the value)
2001: 1.5 (total bust of a draft – best pick was Jayson Nix, a marginal player at best)
2002: 14.3 (best pick was Matt Garza, who didn’t sign with us so I’m not counting him; best who signed was Jeff Francis at 8.9)
2003: 3.9 (best pick was Ian Stewart; the other guys with positive values didn’t sign)
2004: 12.6 (pretty good draft: Iannetta, Fowler, Seth Smith, all making up for the Chris Nelson bust at #1)
2005: 23.7 (all Tulo, who was a fantastic pitch; O’Dowd pitched a shutout after that)
2006: 0 (total bust – best pick who signed with us that year was Michael McKenry, marginal backup catcher. Greg Reynolds was the 2nd pick overall. His WARP is negative)
2007: 0.6 (best pick: Matt Reynolds at 1.5. Casey Weathers went #8 overall and was a total bust. Pacheco was in the draft but is still a negative WARP player overall; maybe he’ll save it, probably not)
2008: -0.6 (still in negative territory. Friedrich may turn out o.k. after all, and Blackmon still has some promise. But no clear successes after 4 whole years)
2009: 0.7 (all Rex Brothers; Tyler Matzek, it’s all on you to save this draft)
2010-11: 0 (nobody’s made it yet, which isn’t unusual)
I’ll skip 2010-11 since those players are still developing. So in 10 drafts, 2000 through 2009, O’Dowd drafted and signed:
– 1 long-term star player (Tulo)
– 1 successful starting pitcher (Francis), a 3rd starter type over about 5 years
– about 31 wins worth of other position players, including 5 guys (Barmes, Hawpe, Fowler, Iannetta) who have been good enough to be starters for at least 4 years
– negligible value in relief pitchers
That’s about 62 WARP overall.
Compare the Giants over the same time period: 95.4 WARP. Compare the Dodgers: 102 WARP. Compare the D’backs: 118 WARP. Compare the Padres: 64 WARP.
The poorest drafting teams in the division have been the Rockies and the Padres.
And which teams are currently battling for last place in the NL West?
That’s a pretty poor drafting record, and it’s my #1 answer to What Went Wrong With The Rockies.
Ag,you da man!Hey thanks for answering my question in a previous post about lead off doubles.The stats made the ROX failures even more infuriating!
Ag I am not a big sabermetric guy, but I kinda get the WAR concept and this analysis is very interesting. Knew that sans Tulo the Rockies drafting has not gone well, but this quantifies that in ways that I had only suspected and could never actually prove.
Now to sum this up (and I have been an occasional DanO supporter) the Rockies are likely the only team in baseball with a manager approaching three consecutive losing seasons, and a GM with a drafting record like that on the job for ten plus years. Stability is one attribute to be sure, however insanity is quite another.
Just guessing this GM/manager love fest doesn’t happen in NY or LA?
Weren’t Matt Holliday, Garret Atkins, Brad Hawpe home grown? They were not included in your draft history. Omitting them pulls down your WARP ratings.
Gary, Orange: thanks!
I’m really trying to be fair about O’Dowd’s draft record (we can talk about his trade record in another thread), so I should point out a couple things. I haven’t looked at the contributions of Latin American signees, but my impressions are that the Rockies have done a pretty good job lately on that front. So it’s “bad at the domestic draft, good at international scouting.” Plus O’Dowd is not the director of scouting or player development, but he is the man in charge. As far as I know, Bill Schmidt came in with O’Dowd as director of scouting. Maybe O’Dowd is loyal to a fault to Schmidt. Maybe he’s a stand-up guy and the key poor draft decisions were his own, so he’s refused to throw Schmidt under the bus for decisions that ultimately weren’t Schmidt’s. But whatever it is, the domestic scouting/drafting record is poor. On the other hand, Roland Fernandez has been in charge of international scouting, and I think he’s done very well. So maybe the problem isn’t O’Dowd; maybe it’s in scouts down the line. And they did fire a few domestic scouts in the offseason. But it seems to me a bigger overhaul/change in thought process is in order here. O’Dowd has (perhaps through Schmidt’s input?) had a few odd fixations in drafting. I guess all GMs do, but one that is clearly a Rockies thing is the former quarterback/multi-sport guy with raw baseball skills. Helton and Holliday were big wins (pre-dating O’Dowd). Seth Smith a minor win. Kyle Parker? Jury’s still out on him. He’s also gone against the grain by drafting first baseman who haven’t torn it up in college Texeira-style: Brad Hawpe, Garrett Atkins, Joe Koshansky, Ryan Shealy. He had some success with converting Hawpe and Atkins to other positions, but perhaps the strangest thing of all is the Rockies inability to find develop anyone remotely qualified to replace Helton. They’ve come and gone like Koshansky and Shealy, and they’ve stalled at lower levels like Ben Paulsen and Kiel Roling are now (although there’s still some hope for Paulsen). It’s now old baseball wisdom from Bill James that good first baseman are always widely available because first base is on the “easiest” part of the defensive spectrum. But for whatever reason, the Rockies have whiffed on all of these guys.
On another point: Gary, I realize I left one thing hanging (I think Jeem may have brought it up) about the “run expectancy” for various runners on/outs situations. Jeem said he’d heard that a walked leadoff runner scores about 37% of the time. And that may well be correct. The reasons I gave a .55 runs expected for runner on 1B, nobody out:
1. That’s based on a scoring environment of 5 runs per team per game. Scoring is down from those levels, so it would be lower now.
2. The runner on 1B may score only 37% of the time, but sometimes you score more than one run in that inning. For example, sometimes you hit a 3-run homer, which brings up the average runs scored.
That brings up another good point about moving the runner from 2B to 3B with nobody out. I mentioned that giving up that out was generally not a good idea. But there’s another way of looking at this. Sometimes we want to maximize our chances of scoring AT LEAST ONE RUN. That’s different than the run expectancies for the whole inning I mentioned above. So in a tie game in the 9th — particularly a walk-off situation — it may very well make sense to bunt the runner over. But that also depends on how confident you are in your next hitter to bring him home.
Enough of the sabr stuff for now, but I am interested in whatever input other folks can add on the “Dan O’Dowd, a 12-year honest assessment” topic …
Here’s another college QB the Rockies drafted that will surprise you:
2000, 30th round–Michael Vick, outfielder, Virginia Tech
(He hadn’t even played baseball since he was 14!)
good (and long) write-up Agb…one interesting fact that I heard on 104.3the fan was of the 300 selections at pitcher that the Rox have had (and it may have been during DOD’s tenure) only 5 have made it to the majors. Even those with questionable math skills can tell you not a model for success. Scouting and DOD don’t come out smelling like roses on that stat.
As always, Go ROX
Ag, just to be clear, not questioning the 0.55 runs. Someone had said the leadoff walk scores 75%, which was way off.
Really good to see some of these numbers. Like moving the guy on 2nd over w/ none out. Well sometimes you may do it because perhaps your club is having trouble scoring runs on the road (who?!??), + you hope to get them jump-started. Knowing the numbers gives you context within which you then judge whether to play the “hunch.”
Ag, I had already figured out the 9th inning,tie game,or one run scenario,but was too lazy too post back.Thanks again.MLB talking heads for years have pushed a lead off walk scores 60-70% of the time so I had kind of just accepted that.Thanks for being the stats guy on this site.I don’t always understand it all,but your posts are always interesting.
Ag. One type of player DoD has almost always drafted is QB’s. Michael Vick, somebody else around the same type, Kyle (?) Parker, Russell Wilson probably some others. Most of them wanted to play football first so usually in just a wasted pick although I understand when you start drafting in lower rounds it’s just like throwing darts against the wall.
I haven’t been following the minor leaguers this year so don’t know how Parker is doing but I thought he had a pretty good year last year. Is that right? Russell Wilson probably would have stuck with baseball but he had a great senior season at QB for Wisconsin and may end up starting for the Seahawks.
Hopefully Jim Tracy has no more sons to waste draft picks on.
Bill, I forgot about the Vick draft. I’ll give him a pass on that since it was a late round flyer. Russell Wilson was more of a problem. I think he went back to football more because he was crap in the minors rather than his dreams of being an NFL QB. The problem with drafting guys like him is that they are great athletes but they just haven’t had time to sharpen their baseball skills. Since they’re already older when O’Dowd drafts them, by the time they work their way up through the minors step by step they may already be passing their baseball primes.
It will be interesting if someone can do a research on this: Pitchers coming up through the minors and when reaching the majors they tend to have a short life span. Is that because of Apodaca or because of high altitude? or both?
I haven’t read through all the comments yet so if I am restating this please forgive me. I for one am happy with Monfort’s response. Maybe he should take over for Tracy and manage the team. That is the type of answer you hear from a leader. He didn’t try to deflect blame and single out someone from his staff. He said blame me, i’m the one in charge, i’m responsible, it’s all my fault. Wouldn’t it be awesome if Tracy could take a little blame and maybe carry some of that load? Every post(losing)game interview I have seen of Tracy he has always this guy needs to do this or that guy needs to do that. He never owns up to being the leader of the team. He never takes the heat from the media deflecting it from his players. Maybe his players would be just a little bit looser. Maybe they wouldn’t feel like they need to take a home run hack every time they get to the plate. Maybe it would make a pitcher just a bit more comfortable knowing the manager has his back that instead of a nervous ball four a pitcher would just paint a corner. That’s a leaders job. That is Tracy’s job. Maybe instead of the lineup carousel Tracy seems to pride himself on (I swear he picks his lineup with a bingo machine daily) he should sit back a little and show some confidence in the team he has.
The players themselves have been asked if they are happy working for Jim Tracy and for the most part they are. I don’t know if they were conditioned to answer a certain way or if they meant it from their hearts.
But I do agree that JT has often called out the younger players more often than the grizzled veterans in the post game pressers. Jim Tracy needs to be tougher on the veterans rather than coddling them. Helton is no longer hitting well. He needs to be replaced in the lineup by Colvin or Cuddyer or even Pacheco. EY needs to replace Scutaro at 2B and bring energy into the lineup. Rosario should be playing 2 of every three games and Hernandez 1 of every three games instead of the other way around. Moyer must be out of the rotation as he continually blows up the bullpen after just two times through the lineup. Trade Rogers for a marginal prospect.
You are right to a certain degree about Mr. Montfort saying it was on me. But the words are empty if not backed up by actions. Also he has seriously hurt the organization by taking over Kelli MacGregor’s job himself instead of hiring a qualified president. Rockies has been downhill since his death because he was never replaced.
Meh. I’ve seen teams completely suck and not be called out for it and maybe they have a bunch of smiles on their faces and it makes for a complacent clubhouse, doesn’t make them a better team or better individual players.
The answer is someone in the middle: calls out bad play AND admits his own mistakes.
My only problem with Tracy’s post game pressers is that he doesn’t do it fairly. Otherwise guys like Tulo and Helton would have their names come up more often.
Well of course the players are going to say they are happy under Tracy. They are not going to say, Tracy sucks and I have no respect for him. What they really believe, I don’t know. But they have been playing like they don’t care about him. Because sooner or later (probably later) if the Rockies keep playing this way Tracy will eventually be gone. He’ll become an adviser to the Montfert or something like that.
OK on to Great American. Who do we have going? Friedrich or Guthrie? Yikes: fly balls. At least it should be good and soupy wet down by that big river.
Reds hit ten (10) homers in just-concluded four-game sweep of Braves at GABP.
Wonder how many more this weekend, high humidity notwithstanding.
Buck Showalter OR Kirk Gibson would have looked really good in purple – but the Rockies are stuck with Tracy & Sons for the indefinite future.
If you want to get really depressed, there is an article about Showalter and what he has done to turn the Orioles around in less than two years. That article talks about making players accountable, attention every specific detail, tough management style, and a no nonsense approach that often rubs the GM/owners the wrong way.
Wow what I would give to see that management style with the Rockies! And finally there is this Oriole player quote, “With Buck you absolutely know that you are not going to get out managed by the opposition.”
Yet there are some that think Tracy holding players accountable equates to throwing them under the bus. I’d like to know what they would think of a take charge type manager.
Nailed it ProgMatinee.