The Colorado Rockies will not contend in 2012. The Rockies were not able to assemble a competitive starting pitcher rotation out of training camp. The off-season strategy of stockpiling no. 5 type starters to supplement the holdovers from 2011 (in various classes of health) and organizational prospects not only failed to produce a competent rotation; when ineffectiveness and injury created opportunities, only Christian Friedrich, of whom little was expected, stepped-up.
31 games ago, at the 1/3 point of the season, Colorado had finally heated-up, along with the weather, winning 6 out of 7 on a homestand against the Astros and Dodgers. Whatever optimism that run generated heading into the summer portion of the schedule instantly vaporized as a run of nearly unprecedented dismal pitching ensued. On June 19, after losing 10 of 11 the team announced Jeremy Guthrie was removed from the starting rotation, and that moving forward the Rockies would use an unconventional 4-man rotation, with each starter limited to 75 pitches. The losing and poor starts continued undeterred until July rolled around, when Drew Pomeranz was recalled from Colorado Springs, Guthrie returned to the rotation, and Friedrich delivered a decent appearance to complement the good work of returned-from-exile Jeff Francis.
Amid the losing there were significant developments of note. Jordan Pacheco, Chris Nelson, Rex Brothers, and Wilin Rosario established themselves as bonafide major leaguers, age began to get the better of future Hall of Famer Todd Helton, and Tyler Colvin’s exceptional play elevated him to starter status.
With Colvin in right-field the Colorado outfield is formidable. All-Star Carlos Gonzalez in left and Dexter Fowler in center give the Rockies essentially three center-field-quality defenders, and each sports a batting average of .300 and above. The infield on the other hand is unsettled. Pacheco’s defense, while improved, continues to thwart his effort to secure the third-base job, with Manager for Life Jim Tracy preferring Nelson’s glovework. Nelson meanwhile continues to be nagged by leg injuries, precluding him from securing either the second or third-base jobs. Incumbent second-baseman Marco Scutaro, who had taken-over at shortstop when Troy Tulowitzski’s groin injury re-surfaced, is now back at second due to an apparent sore arm and the availability of Jonathan Herrera to fill-in for Tulo at short. And the MFL appears to be experiencing acute angst over relegating Helton to the bench in favor of Michael Cuddyer at first. Tracy values Helton’s defense, and it can’t be argued that whenever others have filled-in defensive lapses have occurred.
Scutaro, however, who along with Guthrie is signed only through October, is likely to be dealt in the coming days, as is Guthrie, with the Rockies seeking payroll relief and hopefully value in return for two veterans who don’t figure in their long-range plans. Others who could be dealt include bench players Jason Giambi and Eric Young, who haven’t been particularly effective for a team that’s seldom been close-enough late to need the bench, rehabbing catcher Ramon Hernandez, Pacheco, and Cuddyer. Pacheco, a decent-enough story, is maddeningly one-dimensional, a singles-doubles hitter who rarely walks, with little power or speed, and a liability defensively. Cuddyer, if his contract can be moved, has the potential to return significant value, and quality first-basemen are not typically in short-supply on the market, at least for teams that haven’t been spoiled by Todd Helton’s superior defense for a decade.
Hernandez is under-contract through 2013. The Rockies ought to consider hanging-on to the veteran, who’s been out most of the season with a hand injury. Rookie Wilin Rosario, who’s enjoyed a break-out year offensively, has caught a lot of hard innings, learning the game’s toughest position on-the-job with Hernandez out. Rosario has struggled with passed-balls and wild-pitches from Colorado’s erratic pitching, as well as with throwing accurately to second base. The youngster’s defensive foibles have often given rise to ensuing defensive imprudence by the Rockies infield, and the team could benefit from Hernandez resuming the primary catcher role for the remainder of 2012, solidifying the defense and giving the young pitching staff a veteran presence behind the plate as the team seeks to put together a credible second half of the season. In 2013 his and Rosario’s roles could reverse, Rosario assuming the primary role with the steady veteran as back-up, a mentor to the “Baby Bull” who brings some pop offensively.
With Scutaro moving-on the obvious infield alignment would feature Nelson at second, Herrera sitting in for Tulo at short, and Pacheco at third. Might as well play the New Mexican steadily to see if he can master the position defensively. Should Pacheco be moved, Nelson could slide-over to third, giving prospects DJ LeMaheiu and Josh Rutledge opportunities to showcase their worth as second-basemen. No. 1 prospect Nolan Arenado should arrive in September to compete for the 2013 job at third-base.
In the end, however, the key to extracting some merit from a lost season falls-back on getting consistent competent performances out of the starting pitchers. Ironically the hotly debated 4/75 rotation may have resurrected the career of Jeff Francis. The left-hander embraced the concept without question, and it has seemed to enable him to focus on physically and mentally executing for 75 pitches, giving way before fatigue undermines his ability to hit his “spots.” Hopefully the strong appearances continue. Pomeranz is finally on the scene and looks dominating. His emergence could be indispensible. Friedrich has acquitted himself reasonably well considering he ought to be winding-up his first AAA season and pointing to a MLB debut in 2013. Guthrie’s departure ideally should coincide with Jhoulys Chacin’s return to the rotation from the disabled list. But the talent remains alarmingly thin.
The bullpen in contrast has been steady. Brothers, Matt Belisle and Rafael Betancourt comprise effective 7th, 8th, and 9th men. Matt Reynolds provides the situational lefty role, Adam Ottavino the righty. The others, including Guillermo Moscoso, currently in Colorado Springs, mix and match depending on the need for and work-load of the starters’ piggy-back men.
The Rockies’ offense is solid if inconsistent. It’s played frankly like a last-place team, too often pounding the ball but losing 14-10, then wasting the rare well-pitched games by falling 3-1.
So chins-up RWOers! No 100 loss avoidance policies here. 77 games to go. Let’s win 48 of them and finish even.
I am still mystified as to why people on here think Cuddyer was a bad pickup or that we should get rid of him. Sure his contract is hefty, but this is a guy that is 2nd on the team in RBI and 3rd in Runs. His average isn’t spectacular at .264, but in order to win games (ignore the pitching for the sake of this argument) you have to score runs, and he is #2 and #3 on the team in the 2 categories that represent run scoring potential. Furthermore, on the defensive side of the ball, he has the 4th best fielding percentage of players with at least 400 innings of play. So I understand the impact of his contract, but unless we can get some significant potential in return, I think getting rid of him is a bad idea.
No question. “Just sayin.’”
If you don’t move Cuddyer then you end up carrying a 4th outfielder like Colvin who should really be playing everyday, plus you block Blackmon and Wheerler and any other OF prospect from making any contribution for the next 2 years.
Meanwhile, you have gaping holes in the pitching staff.
So if you don’t move Cuddyer, IMO you need to move some OF.
Having 6 MLB ready OF is a luxury 1st place teams can afford. Not last place teams.
Do you guys have an opinion on that?
I’m considering Cuddyer to be the starting first baseman, understanding neither the MFL or HOFer would agree with me. Helton plays 2 days a week with Cuddyer and the outfielders shuffling around as needed to get everyone rest. So you don’t displace an outfielder with Cuddyer except when someone else is getting rest
But to me, first basemen are a dime a dozen, and there’s always some big galoof out there you can acquire who’ll hit 25 homers and drive-in 80. Won’t play defense like Todd, but we’re the only team in the league that values that highly. We need to get over it. Anyway, as Wyorox notes above, Cuddyer is a hell of a player and should be desirable to somebody out there that doesn’t visit this site to get reminded day-after-day how “overpaid” he is. They’ll take him and the 10.5 per without blinking an eye, and as you note, hopefully give us some pitching in return.
Now I keep hearing about how close Wheeler and Blackmon are and I’m wondering about it. Wheeler’s hitting .297 but he’s only got 1 HR and 18 RBI in 43 games. Blackmon’s hitting .221 with 2 HR and 11 RBI in 39 games. Woo hoo. I know nothing about Wheeler, but that number of games indicates to me he’s been hurt. I do know Blackmon’s had the turf-toe thing for 2 years now, and I guess it’s healed, but who really knows. Some guys never get over that. So I don’t know if I buy that these guys are knocking on the door and blocked.
I guess I’m living in the past when those 2 were considered prospects. Now it seems they are washouts. The hits keep on coming. Even the position that used to scream depth is looking empty. We are truly lucky fans.
As much as it pains me to say it, I agree on your Todd comments Jeem. I’d hate to see him go out of the game way past his prime (arguments can begin if that’s a moot point already??). I would rather watch the Rockies contend without Todd than the current status quo–don’t go for looking for solid logic there, that’s just my gut (and emotional) reaction.
Jeem–the other thing I wanted to ask-not to criticize, but for knowledge–its a lost season, so on the Rosario topic, why not just let him finish out the season, make mistakes, but grow and go into next year stronger as opposed to have Hernandez come back and start? I like Rosario and hope to see him grow and be our solid catcher.
Prog totally agree on the 6 OF is a luxury thing….we can’t afford luxury now, we’re on a ramen diet!
Funny, I had not been watching the games regularly before the ASB, but now that we haven’t seen them in a few days, I’m looking forward to watching our team. Like a scorned lover I guess…..
Let’s face facts: Blackmon was a marginal prospect before he got hurt. Now he’s an injury prone marginal prospect. There’s still a chance he’ll emerge as something better, but there’s really no trade value there. Wheeler is still a good prospect but it’s time for him to start turning it on. Most evaluators seem to think he’s certainly not a star in the making, maybe a faster Seth Smith or something like that?
There’s a bigger problem here, which is the total lack of MLB ready players in our farm system. AAA? Wheeler is the only true prospect on the roster, and he’s having a crappy year (no doubt partly because of the injuries). AA? Arenado is now officially in “lousy year” territory. He’s still young for his league, but unless he turns it on in the last couple months his star will be falling fast. Rutledge? Seems to take him a while to adjust to each league, but his star is rising again. But he is generally viewed as guy who doesn’t have top prospect talent. He’s still our best in-house 2B prospect though. Lower minors? Trevor Story is rising, but is anyone else? Dahl (this years 1st round pick) is certainly off to a nice Rookie ball start, but he’s a kid in Rookie ball. Pitching? Cabrera may still have a big league future (that brutal ill-advised start they gave him still has me spooked though), but there’s no special arms anywhere above high A, where the special arm (Matzek) is starting to implode again, and the other special arm (Bettis) hasn’t pitched all year. So those folks who are waiting for help from the farm will be waiting a long time.
That’s why I say the future is now. Look, everything went wrong this year, but this club is best positioned to make a run in 2013-14, not later. Tulo and Cargo get really expensive after that,and likely will be in decline. Fowler will be gone or expensive. There’s no real impact player ready to hit the majors anytime soon. Might as well go for it now; what’s to lose? Things really can’t get any worse than the first half this season.
Maybe Arenado doesn’t come up in September. Get his attention.
Not criticism, it’s just a discussion piece. What the site is for.
I guess I was just thinking Wilin maybe could use a break from the day-to-day, watch how the veteran does his thing. Give the pitchers someone with more experience to work with for a couple months. I’m probably wrong.
I really like Wilin, by the way. He can really rake it, and he always seems like he’s having so much fun, despite what’s got to be a stressful job, handling our pitching staff while adjusting to the major leagues as a catcher, having to refine his defense, etc.
But I also think all the passed-balls have really taken their toll on the pitchers, who get themselves into enough trouble on their own, without the ball rolling to the screen twice a game. That plus I’m worried about getting an umpire killed…
It’s just one of those annoying “oh no not again” things that drive me nuts. About three years ago it was our pitchers hitting guys. Seemed like every game some guy would be cruising through an inning fine, then he hits a guy. And of course even if there’s two outs somehow the guy always comes around to score… Drives me nuts.
And then all these pick-off throws sailing high and to the right over the cover-man’s head. I think they’ve led to some ensuing “fire-drill” type situations where the throw is wild, then the outfielder gets it, and the runner’s trying to go first to third, so the outfielder has to be a hero and throw him out. Then that throw’s wild, etc, etc. Our defense isn’t good enough to be reckless, and it seems like we are a lot.
But anyway, mainly thinking Wilin could use an easier load for a couple months, then next year he’s “the Man” from opening day on.
And yeah, I’m looking forward to the second half as well. I just love this damned game too much. But wouldn’t it be cool if we could like play .575 ball from here on in? See some games where we compete nightly? So Monfort’s got an excuse not to fire O’Dowd.
Why not switch Wilin to first.I know he already has played third,and taken ground balls there.I mean if “any big galoof” can play first,then why not Wilin? I think in the long run it makes more sense as he can continue to grow as an offensive force with less chance of injury,and less chance of the rigors of catching wearing him out by Aug./Sept.If he can play first,it also fills the gapping hole that Todd’s retirement will create.Then we could trade Cuddyer in the off season for a reasonable starting pitcher,play Colvin everyday,use the two veteran defensive catchers[both of whom have some pop],and play Todd 2-3 times a week + pinch hitting.Just spit-ballin’,but somewhat serious about the idea.
Hey we are right on-topic! Nice story about Rosario by Pat Saunders in today’s Post.
Thorough and undoubtedly more informed assessment of the trade situation by Tom Harding on MLB.com:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120710&content_id=34810638&vkey=news_col&c_id=col
Nice thoughtful intrigue all around. With the 11.4% payroll reduction this year Cuddyer’s $$ is no problem, keep him and play him at 1st 80% of the time. In my mind outfield is set at Cargo, Dex, & Colvin. With Baby Bull hitting with power don’t need as much from 3rd so see if Pacheco can kick up his defense a little. Stay with Herrera and Nelson. Get rid of Marco, Guthrie, and Giambi for yes…more pitching but not 5th starter types, buck up and get some arms damn it. And last but not least get rid of Odud, and Tracy. Look what other “Mid Market” teams have done the last 15 years with limited cash & great baseball minds running the show, think Cards 2 WS winners, Florida 2 WS winners, Arizona, White Sox. If they can do it then we should be able to pull it off also.
MR. Monfort sell the team…please, I think the Omalley’s of San Diego want to buy a team or even better to Mr. Kroenke who knows how to assemble winners.
I’m out
I’m not going to argue with wanting Monfort to sell…but what exactly has Kroenke done for the Avs and Nuggets? The 2001 Avs weren’t his product. But later renditions were and they’ve been down ever since. The Nuggets success was mostly due to the Carmelo draft, not outstanding free agent signings. Neither the Nuggets nor Avs have been huge payroll teams since his family took over. So honestly, not overly impressed with Kroenkes as owners, yet.
Hey y’all,
sitting here board on a hot Friday and I got to thinking about some of the predictions I made earlier this year.
1. Rockies will be in 1st place by All Star break. WRONG!!!!
2. EYJ will be starting CF by beginning of July. NOPE!
3. Helton will have a break out season. Wrong again!!
3 strikes, IM OUT!! I don’t know about everyone else but I sure am looking foward to football season!
Dude, you need to stick with us. We need your moral support for the tough road ahead. 48-29. Go Rockies.
You weren’t alone in being optimistic…the poll on the site before the season asking how many games the Rockies would win this season:
85 – 89 (37%, 28 Votes)
80 – 84 (28%, 21 Votes)
79 or less (19%, 14 Votes)
90 – 94 (15%, 11 Votes)
95+ (1%, 1 Votes)
81% thought we would be a +.500 club at seasons end…
The current poll shows the opposite view:
Lose 96 – 100 (32%, 10 Votes)
Lose 91 – 95 (26%, 8 Votes)
Lose 101 or More (23%, 7 Votes)
Lose 90 or Less (19%, 6 Votes)
really good start of a dicussion board Jeem! Lots of interesting breakdown.
Some thoughts regarding the posts…
While I think Colvin has been the pick up of this season, let’s not start shipping anyone out just yet. But I have felt comfortable in his play at either position and hope he continues to produce.
Ag—would tend to disagree that Arenado is in the “lousy year” season. I know we all want to see the mega-star results but when it doesn’t meet our expectations (as different to everyone), it isn’t a lousy player necessarily. The one consulation I have is DOD questions his maturity. Coming from someone who has brought 5 draft picks up to the majors…I don’t put much stock in his evaluation anymore. Bring him up at some point and learn…would have been great to have him around Giambino all year.
Remember that if we all want new ownership…sometimes you get the downside of change…if they would sell to someone out of state, what says they won’t try to move the club if our fan base declines…which I doubt and would hope not.
Hoping like most(all?) of you we start heading in the right direction this half.
Go ROX!
To go along with this, there is speculation that Rutledge could be called up tonight…he left during the fourth inning last night with Tulsa and headed to Denver according to reports…he could be called up for tonight, which would be a big indication on Scutaro/Nelson/Johnny or even Pacheco…
Nelson is supposed to be healthy now.
Here’s a proposal. Scutaro for Jair Jurrjens straight up.
Doubt the Braves are smokin’what you are Prog!
Hmm. Looks like something is up w/ ATL anyway. Not sure they’d give up Jurrjens. They’re supposedly looking for pitching too, perhaps even “renting” Greinke.
How would Jurrjens be at altitude? I think I remember him pitching at Coors. Wonder how he did. I think maybe he has a fragile psyche. Might not be a good fit.
But something is definitely up.
He is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his career pitching here.
According to the Post, Ruteledge has been called up and will start at SS tonight. Todd on DL. Chatwood sent down and Eckstrom (?) or somebody was called up to be a piggyback pitcher.
Mike Ekstrom. 29 year old RH reliever out of Portland OR. 2-1/2.64 in 37 games. Been up 4 times prior to today.
I’ve posted all of the moves made today in the game day post (http://www.roxwalkoff.com/2012/07/13/hernandez-activated-rutledge-called-up/)
There were a lot of them!
I presume based on performance they would move Cuddyer or Colvin into 1B so EY is your 4th OF. Does Nelson play 3rd while Scutaro plays 2B or does Nelson sit in favor of Pacheco. Either way both those guys should be playing more than sitting.
Kind of overstacking the IF if they don’t move Scutaro or someone else.
Just my 2 (or 4) euros here…
Cuddy shouldn’t go anywhere this year. If you are doing a youth movement (which looks to be the plan in the 2nd half), you want a ‘good guy’ veteran in the room. Helton is wrestling with his MLB mortality (and his hip), Tulo is out until late August/Sept., plus he really isn’t the right guy to guide the young (too tightly wrapped).
I have loved following the career of Todd Helton and respect him immensely. However, I think the time has come. Give him a ‘victory tour’ in September, throw a “Todd Helton Day” in September, then move on. Cowboy just suggested a grand sendoff for Todd next year… sorry, but September is the right time for the grand sendoff. There shouldn’t be a next year, unless he becomes Giambino.
Colvin has been a treat, and is young. However, Denver fans are sounding like Cubs fans did 2 years ago. Let’s see what he does next year before anointing him anything. Remember, Dex is very streaky. Colvin might need to remain as a super utility OF/1B in the meantime until he puts 2 in a row together. The Cubs are losers, but Theo isn’t stupid. He let him go for some reason.
The Rox have serious defensive issues at 1B with Todd not being part of the equation anymore. Rutledge is the 2B of the future, unless he decides to start smoking crack, or forgets how to hit. Hope he gets off to a fast start, so they don’t decide to bury him next month.
Trade Ramon Hernandez, Marco Scutaro, Jason Giambi, Raphael Betancourt, Mark Guthrie, Dan O’Dowd (lol) and whatever prospects are required to load up on +++A or +AA talent.
Build future pitching staffs with ‘grizzled old vets’, use what they offer, then move on. 5 #3 starters are better than 5 #5 starters. Let the young guys establish themselves, then move them for more flexibility. It’s proven that pitching at altitude is always going to be a challenge. So what’s wrong with a staff with guys like Guthrie (yeah, I said it), Francis, Pomeranz, a guy like Livan Hernandez (not him actually) and a guy like Freddie Garcia (not him either)? Although I must say that a rotation of Chacin, Pomeranz, Nicasio, Friedrich and Francis will do for the next 1/2 season. But you can’t expect young guys to be effective and be injury-free at altitude. 3 old guys, 2 young guys. With interchangeable parts!
Don’t get too excited when the new guys put together a winning streak or a good run. The team still sucks. The GM is a lame duck. The new GM will likely replace the MFL. We are about to (if the owners have an ounce of brains, which I am not sure of) undergo a major renaissance at Coors Field. Hope it’s fun to watch. This sure aint!