The old adage says there are 162 games. Everybody wins 54. Everybody loses 54. It’s what you do in the other 54 that matters. Ed the Ump made a revolting observation the other night about the other 54 when you consider the Rockies. The home team is 40-68 after 108 games, tripping along at a vigorous .370 clip, which projects to a 60-102 finish. Let’s see… 60-54 = 6; 102-54 = 48. Colorado is on pace to go 6-48 in the other 54. 1 in 8. There’s your 108 game assessment.
Coming out of Arizona in April, the starting pitching presented the biggest question for the Rockies. It remains so. Jeremy Guthrie, Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio and Drew Pomeranz were supposed to lead a rotation filled-out by one of the dozens of no. 5 starter-quality arms BIB Dan O’Dowd assembled over the winter. That guy turned-out to be 49 year-old Jamie Moyer. That should have been a clue right there. Then Guthrie failed, Chacin went-down, Nicasio went-down, Pomeranz needed delivery repair, and Father Time caught-up with Moyer. Leaving the dozen no. 5s to carry the slack. They didn’t.
There’s always next year, and visions of a rotation featuring Jorge De La Rosa, Pomeranz, Chacin, Nicasio and Jeff Francis are certainly inspiring. Mix-in a couple of no. 2-3 types to push that group and maybe Earth won’t be such a cruel, unrelenting planet.
Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers, and Josh Roenicke form the core of what has been a pretty decent Colorado bullpen. Adam Ottavino and Carlos Torres promise to be pretty steady complements. And with the gang of left-over starters and other prospects to fill in the gaps, it seems like then ‘pen’s in reasonable shape.
Defense has been a significant shortcoming for the Rockies in 2012. One thing you can say about playing at altitude and at Coors Field is the amount of “randomness” increases, that is there is a greater degree of “bad juju” that can occur. Consequently you’ve got to have the tightest practical defense to succeed. With the emergence of Josh Rutledge, Colorado is looking very strong “up the middle.” With Rutledge at second, Troy Tulowitzski returning to short, and the “three center-fielder” outfield of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Tyler Colvin, the Rockies have the makings of something special. And you’ve got your most professional player, Michael Cuddyer, and your hardest working player, Eric Young Jr backing things-up.
The fatal flaw in the mix presently is Wilin Rosario at catcher. It’s surely subject for debate, but my belief is the guy simply can’t play the position. He’s mis-cast. No team pretending to contend can be sincere with that kind of defense at catcher. But as we all know, the Baby Bull has a serious bat. I like Gary’s idea of moving him to first-base, and I think it would be great to bring back Yorvit Torrealba, a proven WINNER, to pair with Ramon Hernandez in a true 50-50 veteran catching tandem. Pitcher-confidence would benefit, and with Rosario and Jordan Pacheco available, the MFL would have treasured third catcher options.
That leaves first and third base defensively. Todd Helton’s Hall of Fame defense at first will be missed (presuming his days as a starter are over), but Cuddyer is an option, this Matt McBride apparently can hit, then there are Andrew Brown, Charlie Blackmon, and Tim Wheeler at Colorado Springs. We all love the performance Pacheco has turned-in at the plate this season, but his offense is one-dimensional and defense remains suspect. Nolan Arenado was supposed to be Josh Rutledge and waits for his chance at Tulsa. And there is Chris Nelson and five or six other middle infield types the BIB has been stockpiling, perhaps hoping one of them will turn out to be a starting pitcher. Or, perish the thought, you could make a bold trade or even splash some cash around at a free-agent or two. Gotta make all those Cardinal fans that showed up last week pay for something.
From the offensive standpoint, even at catcher, none of the players discussed are Mendoza-line types. The Rockies should have plenty of pop. ”You know they’re going to hit.”
Meanwhile, the Rocky Mountain Death March will trudge on, even as we contemplate the foregoing and ask how in the hell is it these guys are going to lose 102 games?
Shit happens.
“There’s always next year”…I grew up a Cubs fan because of WGN, long before the Rockies (go Denver Bears/Zephers!).
In any case, I’m tired of this saying.
I think that Pacheco has played well enought to keep the 3B job until Arenado arrives. Yes, he doesn’t have a lot of power, but he does hit for a good average and doesn’t strike out that often (although he doesn’t walk much either)
I’m impressed by McBride, not so much by the limited view of Brown that we had.
I wonder if Cuddyer has any trade value to try to get a decent starting pitcher. We could fill a rotation internally based on the guys that we have, but that assumes that every injured pitcher is healthy by the start of next season, and also assumes some improvement on the part of the starters.
Rosario is a conundrum. You like his power, but not his defense. Can he learn to become a good defensive catcher? Or do we have to start over with him at 1B? Given the other guys who could play 1B, such as Cuddyer, Colvin, McBride, and Pacheco if Arenado arrives, things would be so much better if Rosario could improve as a catcher.
Very nice write-up Jared. And to think I agree with 90 percent of it.
Mostly to the commenters: I see no value in Rosario at any place other than catcher. So they better work on that or trade him to some other club that thinks they can fix him. Nobody needs a first baseman who projects as a league average hitter.
Pacheco: neat player, gotta love how he has that uncanny ability to make solid contact. But very few walks and no HR power. Kind of like a right handed American Ichiro but with a subpar glove and no speed. The problem is that that’s not like Ichiro at all, since an Ichiro without speed or great defense is not a very valuable player. I say move him back to catcher and see if he can handle it at least as a backup.
Andrew Brown and Matt McBride don’t give me much cause for optimism. If forced to choose I’d say I’m higher on Brown because he’s a true outfielder and he appears to have more value as a platoon player — he has pretty strong platoon splits, whereas McBride doesn’t. They both hit well at AAA (Brown a bit better despite what you read), but not so well as to think either one could start full time in MLB. So there’s nothing to get excited about there.
Rutledge, on the other hand, may really be something to get excited about. He’ll return to earth as pitchers learn him, but no doubt about it, this is a fantastic debut and a really promising young player at a premium defensive position.
Oops, I mean nice write-up JEEM. Not enough snark in it, so I assumed it was Jared…
Ha! See, a couple wins and I get all nice-nice.
Confession: I have been believing the hype on Rosario, and not until your comment this morning, and then this one tonight did I actually look at his stats (beyond the moon shots). Not pretty. OK, off with his head. Thing is, he seems like such a nice guy…
Hey, Wilin is young and a rookie, and he’s handled big league pitching better than we had a right to expect. But not so well that he can make it at a corner position. By the way, I had some time to check tonight, and it turns out Rosario actually was signed as a shortstop (hard to believe with that body, but he was 16). So the converted catcher syndrome (not a tough guy, plays dodgeball behind the plate) may apply here.
Love your writing, Jeem, especially the sarcasm. Amazing the number of AAAA tooled players the Rox acquire. Every team needs at least one or two of these guys coming off the bench but we can throw out a complete starting squad.
I like Pachecho as the super utility guy, and I’d make sure he caught a couple times a week.
Nelson is another guy you root for, thinking that a little regular playing time he’ll turn the corner, but…
EY2 keeps getting better and better, too bad his arm betrays him.
I’d send Rosario to catching school this winter and see if his desire can overcome his shortcomings. I agree with Ag that his toughness is a big issue.
Cuddyer ins’t going anywhere until next July, if then–too expensive.
Thanks Doc. Nelson, yer right, he never gets a chance to get on a roll. He always seems to pull something… Or hit the Red Bull too hard.
We here at RWO are SO ahead of the curve:
http://m.denverpost.com/denverpost/db_14591/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=8XmDdtTy&detailindex=1&pn=0&ps=5&full=true#display
It was such a “nice” article Jeem that I too had to check the author line twice to make sure that I had the right guy tied to the right piece – but your usual sarcasm is great too!
For those that want to take Rosario off the plate and move him to first/third, and it may yet come down to that eventually – it is still too soon to give up on him being a starting catcher. The real conundrum for me is that while he needs MLB time to work on his offense, he also needs AAA time to work on his defense.
There is only about four weeks or so left in the minors, but I would option him to the Sky Sox along with the “catching” coach (Weinstein I think?), and play him there virtually every day until the end of the AAA season concentrating on the defensive aspects of his game.
Rosario can come back up in September to get some more MLB starts and ABs, but in the meantime lets see what Pacheco and McBride can do at the MLB level along with the veteran Hernandez. We won’t know if these two guys can catch in the Show unless we give them a chance – right?
Jeem,
Great article. You should apply to the DP. Oh wait, we’d rather have you writing here. That’s because you’re better than any of the hacks that write for the DP.
The only way I get exiceted about next season is if MFLJT is GONE, GONE, GONE.
I do like our up-and-comers, in addition to our latest outfield group, but without COMPETENT management, it doesn’t mean a whole bunch.
Thanks Figmon, high praise. Work for the Post: sounds like another job to get laid-off from…
another pretty good analysis of the 4-man rotation on BR:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1290612-is-project-5183-and-its-75-pitch-limit-revolutionary-or-simply-insane