2016 “On the Record” Prediction Thread

Ladies and Gents – it’s once again time for our 2016 predictions. Before we get started, here’s a link to the 2015 predictions from the group (some good stuff here – worth a review):

2015 RWOer’s Predictions

At a bare minimum, let’s do this:

Rockies W-L record
Rockies final position in NL West
Rockies Best Player
Rockies Biggest Surprise Player
Biggest Disappointment Player

But please feel free to add more predictions – many more predictions if desired. Think “out of the box.” Crazy stuff like Pete Rose and Paul O’Neill supporting Donald Trump (of wait, that’s already happened). Deadline is before first pitch, game #1. Good luck!

{Edit Note – RMH/Jaredean – I can’t add images, for some reason I don’t (and never) have access to the “add media” toolbar. So feel free to add some sort image if desired}


    • sdcarp

      March 20, 2016

      Here’s sdcarp’s 2K16 version 2.0 (there may be a few updates before opening day)(updated 3/30 to reflect Reyes situation)

      2016 Record – 68-94. I have to say….I won’t be shocked if we do somewhat better than this.

      NL West – Dodgers > DBacks > Giants (I think their pixie dust “luck” finally runs out to an extent – not a Johnny Cueto fan) > Rockies > Padres. So I have us 4th, ahead of the Padres. It will be a distant 4th.

      Best Player – Arenado (sorry – this isn’t exactly a revelation).

      Surprise Player – Story (again, sorry. another non-revelation). Was tempted to put Mark Reynolds.

      Disappointment – Hundley. Last season was a mirage. Some, maybe many, will put LeMahieu here. But I think he will mostly verify 2015 in 2016.

      Additional predictions:

      1. If used as a SP from day #1, Chatwood won’t make the entire season.
      2. Walt Weiss is mercifully relieved of his duties by the non-waiver trade deadline.
      3. Cargo is traded by the non-waiver deadline. Rox fans in general won’t be happy with the return. But it will open the door to David Dahl’s Coor’s debut in July.
      4. Reyes never plays another game in a Rockies uniform. 3/30/2016 – I’m calling 60 game suspension then a Rox/Reyes buyout.
      5. Matzek never plays another game in a Rockies uniform.
      6. Tyler Anderson likely never plays a game in a Rockies uniform.
      6. Jon Gray doesn’t develop as virtually every Rockies fan hopes. It’s not that he will be awful, but as a SP, he’s a #3/#4 type. As a RP…..Wade Davis type.
      7. Eddie Butler also comes to grips with the fact that he’s a RP. This is not a bad thing…..except in the eyes of most Rox fans.
      8. Hoffman, Senzatela, and Marquez on the other hand…….are SPers and make significant strides this season. Jesus Tinoco does so as well.
      9. Chettis asserts himself as a #2 type SP – even by other team’s standards.
      10. JDLR rides off into a Rockies sunset. He’ll not be good enough to be worth trading at the deadline…..and then won’t be brought back by the Rockies next season.
      11. Jenny Cavnar tears her ACL (oh wait – that already happened) – and also becomes an even better play-by-play announcer.
      12. I’ll be watching Byung-ho Park. This is a guy the Rox could have snagged relatively cheaply (by baseball standards). I have a suspicion that he may be a very servicable power option for the next 4-5 years.

      Enough for now. As noted, there will be a few tweaks and/or additions prior to opening day.

      3/30/2016 update – the Jason Motte injury opens the door for Miguel Castro. Since the Rox have decided Castro is a RP (right or wrong), I think this opportunity is good. It’s much easier to integrate RPers into the Majors. I have been consistently trending more bullish on the Rox (don’t think overboard here, I’m talking maybe 73 wins instead of 68) BUT if the Motte injury is significant (pitcher+shoulder=not good) then my 68 win projection is looking good.

      • roxnsox

        April 2, 2016

        Carp! I just put in my predictions, without having read any of the other posts, and find we were thinking alike on our Surprise and Disappointment… lol

    • Pooter

      March 21, 2016

      Final Record: 89-73

      2nd in West, Wildcard Winners!

      Rockies Best Player– Cargo wins MVP!
      But considerations also go to DLR with 17 wins, Gray with 17 wins as well. Rockies have lowest bullpen ERA in MLB

      Rockies Suprise Player– Mark Reynolds leads team/National League in Home Runs

      Biggest Disappointment– Lyles, Butler

      Comeback Player– Chatwood 14 wins

      • Pooter

        March 23, 2016

        Please replace Gray’s name above with Bettis. Gray is a wuss.

        • sdcarp

          March 23, 2016

          LOL – Pooter, I can actually see Chettis having a big year. I won’t be shocked if he goes 200 IP, good peripherals, and 14-15 wins.

    • Mike Raysfan

      March 25, 2016

      69-93 I think the West will be:


    • rockymountainhigh

      March 27, 2016

      I took a sabbatical from RWO as it’s going to be a long season. I’m back!

      2016 record: 72-90
      NL West: D-bax (cuz I hate big market teams), Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Padres (cuz we have to make sure we finish ahead of jaredean’s wife’s team)
      Best player: NoDo and he will be in top 3 in MVP final vote (remember he was MVP in AFL at same time as Bryce Harper & Mike Trout played but only he took longer to get to elite level)
      Surprise player: Arenado – most steamers say he will regress, I say he will improve upon last year’s numbers cuz he has a big chip on his shoulders (only #6 third baseman in a poll???? and Justin Turner of Dodgers was #5????)
      Other surprises: Blackmon and DJLM won’t regress and put up another consistent year; Reynolds playing 80% of time over Paulsen and uses Coors Field to rejuvenate his career; Jeff Hoffman is best SP at end of year
      Disappointments: almost the entire rotation except Bettis and maybe JDLR if he avoids injuries; Parra – he puts up stinker and we speed Dahl and Tapia up the pipeline; Hundley only 60% of 2015 stats

      Other predictions:
      Story is OD starting SS and sticks the whole year. He has shown maturity and is a quiet leader; didn’t he work out with Tulo at Camp Tulo after the 2014 season?

      Tony Wolters will come up in late May and stick with team to game 162 when we find that it’s worthless to carry Descalso, Ynoa, and Reyes if we have Adames as super-utility player.

      Reynolds/Paulsen – 80/20 playing time for Reynolds

      Tom Murphy will come up and start the majority of the games in June or July

      Eddie Butler joins rotation in June and puts up #3 or #4 SP stats

      Christian Bergman will be in long relief the whole year and quite serviceable.

      WW won’t turn bullpen decisions over to Steve Foster. Enough of managing the BP, Walt.

      Simon Castro will be the first short relief pitcher called when an injury hits the BP.

      Gopherg is in AAA all year as he continues to serve gopher balls.

      Rusin, then Hale will come up to replace injured or ineffective SPs sometimes during 2016.

      Rockies upper management will be mapping the pitches thrown at Coors Field. They expect the BP to throw FBs at least 80% of the time while keeping BB/9 under 2.50. Motte threw 95% FBs last year as did McGee with 92% or 93% (I might be off on McGee’s FB %)

      Senzatela and German Marquez promoted to AAA mid-season to prepare for 2017.

      CarGo and McGee traded at deadline for pitchers whose FBs are rated 60 or better.

      Chatwood only goes 130 innings and gets shut down in August when Rox are out of playoffs. Hoffman in his place.

      Rusin has to be on the roster as he is out of options.

      There’s my predictions! On a side note; I read in PR a couple of weeks ago an article about Parker French and I’m excited for him for this reason: (don’t remember the exact numbers, but it was something like 3 BBs in 50 innings pitched. holey moley! He’s my man 5 years down the road as will Jack Wynkoop.

    • Colorado Thistle

      March 29, 2016

      I regularly predict a good season for the Rox and have been regularly disappointed. I say that they will go 80-82, winning six of seven games at the end of the season but losing the last one to miss the .500 mark.

      Trevor Story will be fun to watch and the story of the season. The kid can flat hit.

      I think Nick Hundley will go backwards a bit.

      I think DJ and Nolan will continue to prove they earned those Gold Gloves and both will also impress with hitting. I think Nolan continues to show that he is a superstar, HOF-caliber player. I’m looking forward to watching him play defense daily as much as any other part of the season.

      I just hope the pitching isn’t a complete dumpster fire.

      • sdcarp

        March 29, 2016

        Ag has threatened to publish a PAT that nets us a 500 record in 2016. IMO…..that’s (500 record) the ceiling of a realistic 2016 PAT.

        You essentially nailed it. As you note, we just have to figure out how to mitigate the pitching dumpster fire. I think the Pen looks like a solid, mid-pack group (if they don’t get over-worked). I’m on record as liking Chettis and even the group competing for the #5 slot (Bergman/Rusin/Flande). We need a bolt of lightning to strike in the #2-#4 group.

    • lwesche

      March 29, 2016

      I want to know who can possibly be the closer if we happen to have a lead in the 9th?

      • rockymountainhigh

        March 30, 2016

        If I was manager, I’d go closer by committee. Put in the best/hottest pitcher in earlier innings to snuff out the fire and let somebody else available close. Closing is overrated; a smart manager would bring in the best pitcher in high leverage situations earlier than the 9th inning.

        • sdcarp

          March 30, 2016

          RMH – I can not possibly agree more with you on this one. But for some reason, major league Managers struggle with this concept. Every year, a half-dozen teams threaten “closer by committee,” but it rarely pans out. This is not a Walt Weiss problem, the is a Manager problem in general.

          With McGee and Motte (and ultimately maybe Miguel Castro), we’re setup well for “CBC.”

          I have to give Bridich and Company major credit for making some “out-of-the-box” (and absolutely correct) 25 man roster decisions. They have a little momentum at the moment. Perhaps we actually will pursue CBC.

          • sdcarp

            March 30, 2016

            SCRATCH my comment. Jason Motte has a sore shoulder.

    • Banjar

      March 30, 2016

      Just read that charges will be dropped against Jose Reyes. I’ll bet that the MLB and Rockies’ lawyers are working overtime on this one.

      • sdcarp

        March 30, 2016

        Add the Players Association Attorneys as well. It’s an Attorney bonanza.

        I’m now calling a 60 game suspension (I continue to maintain it has to be more than the 50 game PED first offence).

    • Gary

      April 2, 2016

      Having watched the few games on ROOT this spring I submit the following.The ROX are one of only 4/5 NL teams that even have winning records.We have been killing the snakes who have owned us the past couple of years or so.My big predictions are the ROX go 102-60 and win division easily.Walt is named Mgr.of the year and the Monforts immediately give him a LIFETIME contract.The owners also rip out the rockpile and fountain park and build a night club including a Cannabis social room.Chatwood is great.Lyles will suck and be gone by ASG.Parra will prove a stupid signing and Dickerson will be an AS for Tampa.I will attend 2 or fewer games and will try to be as annoying with my posts as always.PLAY BALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • roxnsox

      April 2, 2016

      Here goes, on my gut or a whim, having read almost no prognostications:

      76-87, because I’m buying the Bridich plan and saying it’s infused some energy into the guys
      4th place, just because I want progress
      Best player: Arenado, because duh
      Biggest surprise: Mark Reynolds
      Biggest disappointment: Nick Hundley

      • roxnsox

        April 3, 2016

        OK, 76-86. I guess even the bad teams don’t get 1 extra game/chance.

    • Bob in WV

      April 3, 2016

      I guess if I’m going to predict anything I better do it now. Because our expectations as a group are so low (no PAT this year, Ag) I’m expecting a finish better than most would predict. In fact, our slogan this year will be “Nobody saw us coming!” as the team is competitive throughout the season, but falls short at the end with a third place finish. So relatively I am optimistic this spring.

      Record: 86-76
      Final Position: 3rd
      Best Player: Nolan
      Biggest Surprise: Injuries are minimal
      Biggest Disappointment: Parra

      More likely:
      Record: 68-94
      Final Position: Dead last again
      Best Player: Blackmon
      Biggest Surprise: Reyes
      Biggest Disappointment: A ton of injuries again.

      I am going on record here with the first set of predictions.

    • ProgMatinee

      April 3, 2016

      I’ll play the optimist. Lets say 78-84 with just enough glimmer of hope to get us excited in the offseason.

      Best overall player: Nolan
      Best hitter: Cargo
      Best pitcher: Bettis
      First trade: Blackmon
      Biggest disappointment: Weiss use of bullpen

    • Agbayani

      April 3, 2016

      DATELINE: October 2, 2016, 9:00 pm MDT (the regular season just ended, and the Rockies finished 81-81)

      I think we can all agree that 2016 put the fun back in baseball for Rockies fans. Sure, .500 (and a 3rd place finish) isn’t exactly what every fan dreams about, but it was certainly a start. Let’s look at the preseason projections (I’ll use fangraphs Steamer projections, but most any other reliable one will do) to see what went right.

      Steamer said 68-94, and we outperformed that by 13 (!) wins. The obvious place to start is pitching. Steamer had this for our starters:

      De La Rosa – 2.3 WAR
      Bettis – 1.9
      Gray – 1.7
      Lyles – 1.5
      Chatwood – 1.2

      DLR pitched as expected (giving us 177 slightly above average innings, and putting that unfortunate nickname to rest forever), but Bettis emerged as a true # 2 type starter — 180 innings, 3.0 WAR. And when Chatwood hit the DL again, nobody predicted Kyle Freeland would step in to take about 100 very good innings, adding another win. And then Lyles gave us half a win more than expected by actually staying out there for 160 innings. In all, our starters added 2.0 wins to the Steamer projections. That got us to 70 wins right there.

      And the bullpen? Well, there was the hidden strength of this team. Steamer hated it preseason with the exception of McGee (65 IP, 1.5 WAR). McGee was better than that, accumulating 2.0 WAR. And Boone Logan? Who say this one coming: 1.0 WAR, mostly by staying reasonably healthy (Steamer had him at 0.3). Qualls (solid, as projected), Motte (not so much, also as projected), and Miller were o.k., but again we say a young player emerge, this time in Miguel Castro: projected as replacement level in 40 IP, he actually went almost double that and accrued 1.2 WAR. And finally, Steamer thought Ottovino would only go 15 innings. Steamer does not know Adam Ottavino’s intensity. He went more than double that, and put up his own 0.6 WAR (Steamer had him at, you guessed it, an appropriate Zero WAR). Add all that up and the bullpen added about 2.5 wins. And that, along with the starting pitching, got us all the way to 72.5.

      So where did we find those additional 8.5 wins? Well, in the field of course.

      Catcher: Steamer saw 1.2 WAR out of Hundley/Wolters/Garneau. Tom Murphy took over for good in July and cranked that up to 1.7 total out of the position (0.5 wins better than projected)

      1B: Paulsen projected as replacement level, Reynolds at 0.5. Reynolds did just a little better than expected as he got the majority of the playing time, generating 0.7 wins. Paulsen did a little better than expected, generating 0.3 WAR. 1.0 WAR out of 1B is still pretty crappy, but it was 0.5 wins better than projected.

      2B: DJ projected at 1.2 WAR. Sure, the BABIP dropped from 2015, but we got just a little more power out of him and even some additional value on defense and the basepaths. He was an average starter – a 2.0 WAR guy, better by 0.8 WAR than projected.

      SS: Steamer projected Jose Reyes as getting only 35 plate appearances; let’s hope Steamer knows something we don’t know. Bridich dumping Reyes after he found no takers for him by May (hey, who wouldn’t want an alleged wife beating, proven washed up, demonstrably whining SS? What, nobody?) was the best move he’s made as a GM. Story had his occasional adjustment issues, but he locked down the job with his fine fielding and high power/high strikeout approach. He was projected at 1.2 WAR; he gave us 1.5. That’s + 0.3 wins, and that’s a really promising rookie season.

      3B: Arenado peaked last year, right? Ahh, that’s what Steamer thought. Steamer was wrong. He emerged as an elite player this year. Steamer said 4.4 WAR; Nolan said 6.4. + 2.0 wins.

      LF: Gerardo Parra and Ryan Raburn projected to combine for 0.8 WAR. Guess what? Walt finally learned how to do that platoon thing right and he squeezed 1.3WAR out of the platoon. + 0.5 wins.

      CF: Charlie Blackmon projected at 1.2 WAR, which is kind of weird since he was coming off back-to-back 2.0 WAR seasons. And he was the same old Charlie, actually even a little better, putting up a 2.4 WAR season. Add 1.2 wins.

      RF: Cargo projected as a 2 WAR player? In other words, an average rightfielder? Really? That’s what injuries and injury-induced lack of production do to you in a projection system. Cargo’s second half in 2015 was, I guess, pretty much the real deal after all. He was good for 4.7 WAR in his last fully healthy season in 2013, and I guess he’s still that same guy. + 2.7 WAR over his projection.

      Bench: well, sometimes projection systems hit the nail on the head. The bench wasn’t worth much at all – it performed at a purely replacement level, much as projected. (What, you thought Daniel Descalso would break out?)

      So add it all up, and you get:

      Starting pitching: + 2.0 wins
      Bullpen: + 2.5 wins
      Position players: + 8.5 wins

      Total: + 13.0 wins

      And that’s how a 68 win team became an 81 win team.

      The season itself? Well, I was about ready to give up at the All Star break, but then came that surprising winning streak. In retrospect, maybe I shouldn’t have been surprised since everything went right all at once:

      – Ottavino came back, pushing guys like Castro into earlier innings and moving us toward that Royals “5 inning game” model

      – Freeland stepped in and gave us an immediate boost to the rotation

      – Murphy took over for good at catcher and showed he belongs

      – And most importantly, we hit a soft part of the schedule at the same time. Coming out of the ASB, it was Braves, Rays, Braves, Orioles (in full collapse by that time). That pushed us close to .500, never really in contention, but close enough for that strong September finish (and how about that David Dahl kid!) to give us hope for 2017.

      And let’s hope that one day we look back at 2016 and see a lot of what we saw in retrospect in that 2006 club … the one we never realized at the time was ready to go to the World Series the following year.

      • Gary

        April 4, 2016

        Ah Ag,still crazy after all these years.I’d be lying if I said I understood half of what you wrote but I would be thrilled if you nailed it!

    • rockymountainhigh

      April 3, 2016

      That was enjoyable to read how u make all the adjustments. I’m surprised you used Freeland instead of Hoffman in you’re WAR projections.

      • Agbayani

        April 3, 2016

        RMH, I thought about using Hoffman, but since he’s coming off TJ surgery and has yet to pitch a full year, I thought it more likely that Freeland would be the surprise new (and effective) starter. When I think about it some more, I was overly optimistic in saying 100 MLB innings from Freeland — I guess I’d be more than happy with 80 (since even in the best case scenario he’ll get about 60 or 70 in the minors first).

        • sdcarp

          April 4, 2016

          It’s not at all far-fetched to think we could potentially receive 1.0 WAR (or somewhat significantly more) from “Prospect” pitchers. It might end up being a combination of Freeland/Hoffman/Marquez etc.

    • Agbayani

      October 2, 2016

      And the winner is …. Roxnsox, with a prediction that was just one win better than the final result. And take away one of the bullpen losses, and she was right on the money. Seems like this stagger toward the finish line is being taken differently by Rox fans (including me) than the last few seasons. The good developments were so positive that this finally feels like a 75 win season that is part of an upward trend …


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