End of Season, Now What?

Tonight is Game 161 of the year and the Rockies does have an impact on the playoff scenario.  The Brewers (Rockies’ opponent) and the Cardinals are battling for the Central division title.  St. Louis still has a one-game lead over the Brewers going into tonight when both Milwaukee and St. Louis lost Friday night.  Milwaukee had a 20-4 record in September when Colorado held off the Brewers 11-7 after jumping to an early 11-2 lead.  The best fans in baseball resides in St. Louis and they were cheering for the Rockies in the middle of the Cards-Cubs game.

Bud Black has done a great job in my humble opinion during the month of September after being dealt nothing by the front office.  He is looking forward to 2020 season to see what works and what doesn’t work.  It appears that Garrett Hampson is making a strong case to play CF when David Dahl is not available.  He can also play 2B which gives the club flexibility on the roster.  Sam Hilliard after being ignored all year in Albuquerque with 30 HR and 25 SB finally showed he can bring his game to The Show.  He is making a strong case to play any OF position.  The third player that is showing serious consideration for regular playing time next year is Ryan McMahon.  Everyone is talking about how they missed keeping DJLM but they overlooked the fact that RyMac has hit just as many HRs in less playing time including a few to opposite field.  He also fielded his position pretty good.  His advantage is that he can play both 2B and 1B.  That explains why Yonder Alonso is not getting any starts lately.  A little known fact is that RyMac hits lefties and righties equally good.

The club also has clearly been taking a look at both the bullpen and rotation without the usual suspects.  The rotation still has question marks with Chi Chi Gonzalex, Tim Melville, Antonio Senzatela, and Peter Lambert trying to make some kind of a statement.  None of them is really standing out at this moment.  My eye tests tell me they lead the majors (probably not true but…) in free passes (BB and HBP) issued, very few strike ones, and their inability to get leadoff hitters, 8-hole hitters, and pinch hitters.  They can be good but they won’t be because they can’t pitch like a Kyle Kendrick (Cubs) or a Mike Davies (Brewers).  They only throw around 90s but they are effective because they throw strikes without going over the  middle of the plate.  The pitchers also gave up more HRs than the Rockies hit themselves even in their own house.

Black also put Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, and Wade Davis on an exiled island except for maybe one inning a week or two.  If September is any indication of the future plans, Scott Oberg, Carlos Estevez, and Jairo Diaz will be at the back end of the pen with possibly James Pazos contributing.  Yency Almonte and Sam Howard were given long looks in relief roles.

The goal from the RWO community is to see the front office have some balls to improve the club without signing average players to big contracts.  For now it looks like the 2020 roster will be as follows:

Outfield:  Blackmon (bad fielder, but invaluable bat who can hit anywhere in

the lineup), Dahl, Hilliard, Desmond or Tapia (one has to go), and Hampson backing up as 5th OF.

Infield:  Arenado, Story, McMahon, Murphy (last year cuz of his stupid contract), Brendon Rodgers, and Hampson

Catcher: Wolters and either Drew Butera or Dom Nunez (Rockies is taking a long look at Butera over Nunez)

Rotation:  Gray, Marquez, Freeland (those three must have good years or we’re shafted big time), the last two will be won in spring training – Anderson, Lambert, Castellani, Gonzalez, Senzatela, etc

Bullpen:  Oberg, Estevez, Diaz, Pazos, Almonte (?), Howard (?), Bettis (?), Tinoco(?).  I’m organizing a sit-in protest at the Rockies front office if they keep at least two out of three expensive arms (Davis, McGee, and Shaw).  One is the limit they are allowed to keep and I would pick Shaw.

We will use this as the first thread of the off-season and when this thread gets a little long, I’ll put up a new post to start a new thread.  Go Cardinals!

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roxnsox
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roxnsox

Hilliard is apparently a keeper; his outfield play needs some reps to solidify. It’s sometimes a little too exciting – will he catch it? Won’t he? Hampson is CLEARLY a super-utility – have really enjoyed watching him this month. Will the owner have the guts to replace the GM? I think this is pivotal. And I wish “they” would think outside the box like carp and Bob discussed in the previous thread. Another doubtful item. I think Bettis is done,… Read more »

roxnsox
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roxnsox

And keep Murphy on the bench! Another terrible signing. Let Fuentes run with the job in spring and just see what there might be with him.

Bob K
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Bob K

New Pirates GM Ben Cherington has said that the Pirates do not regard anyone on their roster as untouchable. Should the Rockies go get Story’s buddy Josh Bell to cure their 1st base hole? Besides Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Brian Shaw, who else should the Rockies give the Pirates for Bell?

Agbayani
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Agbayani

Second half stats – I’m going here with fangraphs’ RC+, where 100 is an average hitter (and it’s adjusted for park): Hilliard 145 Nolan 136 Story 123 Dahl 108 Charlie 106 Hampson 103 Alonso 101 McMahon 99 Murphy 88 Desmond 71 Tapia 70 Wolters 42 Daza 38 Hilliard is a keeper! Still very raw – kind of an older (for his debut) lefthanded Matt Holliday. Sometimes the power doesn’t translate from AAA to the big leagues, but his does. Tapia:… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

“McMahon and that elusive righty platoon partner at 1B would be a nice bridge.” McMahon hit for a higher average against LHPs than he did against RHPs. Why on earth do you want to sit him against LHPs? This is one of my problems with managers in general and Bud Black in particular that they can’t get over the LH batter against RH pitcher even when they have the stats to show it. They keep putting players in a position… Read more »

Agbayani
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Agbayani

Bob K. – because reverse splits are almost always not “real” but simply small sample size effects! The correct way of viewing it is to assume that a lefthanded hitter is more effective against righties unless and until he proves otherwise. And McMahon’s 2019 was not his only season in pro ball. Minors 2017: 1.059 OPS vs. righties; .633 vs lefties Majors/minors combined 2018: .817/.682 2019 majors: .781/.785 (basically no split, but over only 150 ABs vs. lefties) And factor… Read more »

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Think about this………while the Rox can’t come to grips with the concept of simple platoons, most “progressive” teams accepted platoons as gospel a half-dozen years ago and have now moved on to openers, bulk pitchers, and swing planes.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

Good article in the Post, quoting outside sources such as Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, and confirming what we all know, in layman’s terms/numbers 😉 Szymborski sums it up perfectly: “… I don’t see a willingness to change. I think it’s a general problem with the Rockies’ organization as a whole, from top to bottom. “I think you need a complete remaking of the organization. I think you need an organization that’s willing to break conventional rules of how things are… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

Projected arbitration salaries for Rockies Players.

Chad Bettis – $3.8MM
Scott Oberg – $2.0MM
Jon Gray – $5.6MM
Tyler Anderson – $2.625MM
Trevor Story – $11.5MM
Tony Wolters – $2.0MM
Carlos Estevez – $1.2MM
David Dahl – $3.0MM
Kyle Freeland – $2.4MM

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

Bob K
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Bob K

Revised projected arbitration salaries for Rockies players.

Scott Oberg – $2.0MM
Jon Gray – $5.6MM
Trevor Story – $11.5MM
Tony Wolters – $2.0MM
Carlos Estevez – $1.2MM
David Dahl – $3.0MM
Kyle Freeland – $2.4MM

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Alright gang – game 6 of the ALCS. Two heavyweights. High stakes. Big money.

Both teams using an Opener.

Move along. Nothing to see here.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

I haven’t been able to watch the LCS games, but from the highlights and summaries – wow! A lot of good stuff. I’ve held my tongue all season, but may I please, one last time, lament the loss of my man Deej? Good grief; what could have been, with McMahon given a full season to blossom at first base, or even move LeMahieu there.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Yeah……visualizing DJ at 1B instead of Murphy just makes you want to cry, huh??? Keep in mind, DJ played a lot of 3B (51 games) this seasons for the Yanks. 51 games @ 3B, 74 @ 2B, 35 @ 1B. The versatility the Rox feign to desire. Giving Nolan 20-25 games off a year as he ages is going to be critical. DJ could have made this a reality also. Signed for 2 years, 24M (almost identical to Murphy). 31… Read more »

roxnsox
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roxnsox

Correct about zero creative or even expansive thinking. He could have turned into a top super-utility player of all time as HE ages, spelling Nolan and everybody else and himself. And to be fair, NOBODY foresaw the season he had. But he was much better than fine on our team, and if we had gotten this same season out of him? It all makes me want to cry. And if Murphy is the starter next year (of course he will… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

Rockies promote Darryl Scott to bullpen coach. He replaces Darren Holmes.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/rockies-darryl-scott-bullpen-coach-darren-holmes.html

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Blah – just shuffling cards from the same old deck. Color me unimpressed.

Bob K
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Bob K

The thing that I remember was when Holmes was first hired, he said that he could fix Rex Brothers. Obviously he failed at that.

Bob K
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Bob K
roxnsox
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roxnsox

As he should. Now, is Nick Ahmed really better than Trevor Story? Discuss.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Defensively – Ahmed is REALLY good. So is Story.

Bob K
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Bob K

From what I read, Ahmed was slightly favored over DeJong and Story. But all 3 are really good defensively. In the old days, Story may have been given a slight edge for his offense which really should not be a factor in a defensive award.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

I know the bat should not come into it, but I guess it was coloring my vision a bit

Bob K
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Bob K

Arenado added another Platinum Glove to his collection also.

Bob K
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Bob K

Normally I cannot stand to listen to Mad Dog Rizzo. Today was tolerable as he ripped Mike Trout as the AL MVP. In his opinion the award should have gone to DJ. He also admitted to being a Yankees fan and his east coast bias.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Whoa – really discouraging Letter issued to fans from Monfort/Bridich/Black.

I say discouraging because it certainly implies all will be back. Doubling down on same strategy. Not promising.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

I didn’t read it that way, carp. Of course, whatever they say must be taken for what it is – spin – with a handful of salt. But Bridich refers to needed changes. Ah, who knows.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

….and now I’m leaning your way, after the media session was described. I can’t believe they said “we expect X and Y to improve, we like our team/players, yada yada” AGAIN.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Here’s what makes it worse: 1. The Dodgers are the Dodgers. 2. The D-Backs extended Mike Hazen, really good GM that was rumored to be the front runner for the Boston GM position. 3. San Diego has the best Farm System in all of baseball….by a wide margin. 4. The Giants have Farhan Zaidi entering year 2 of his GM reign. Zaidi learned the trade under Billy Beane at Oakland and Andrew Friedman in LA (and Tampa before that). We’ll… Read more »

Agbayani
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Agbayani

One glimmer of hope in the Monfort Letter was a cryptic comment about how they’ll be reevaluating the bullpen. “Reevaluate” better mean “DFA” for at least a couple of our aging nonperformers. I think Carp agrees with me: the way to improve the bullpen is to find talented arms who are struggling as starters in your organization or other organizations – the Ottavino way (a failed starter with the Cards), not picking up some 30-something “proven” reliever at a huge… Read more »

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Keep this in mind, next season (2020), relief pitchers will have to face three batters minimum. Take a deep breathe. Think about this new rule for a few seconds. This is a big deal. I think this will change RPing as we know it. The age of the “super” reliever is upon us. Ag – you mention Hoffman. He’s got a golden opportunity next season. I think Senza should be moved to a RPer role as well. Caveat……..if the Rox… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

There are exceptions to the rule. If there are two outs in the inning and the relief pitcher gets the final out of the inning by only facing one batter, the relief pitcher does not have to come back the next inning to face two more batters. The same if there is one out, the relief pitcher may only have to face one (double play) or two batters to end the inning without being required to come back the next… Read more »

Wayne
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Wayne

I haven’t posted in many a year, but I read you all daily. We have 3 pitchers (Davis, Shaw, and McGee) who we owe $35.5 million for next year. We should be able to find 3 entry level payroll kids (Estevez, Diaz, Pazos, Howard, etc) who we can plug in. I think the Rox should trade the 3 expensive, worthless arms and offer to eat 2/3 of the salary ($24 million) which would save the team in the neighborhood of… Read more »

sdcarp
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sdcarp

I think this is a realistic view (meaning we’ll have to pay a high chunk of their salaries and essentially get nothing in return). BIG DEAL. Even if we save 5-10M, that’s something and as you note, Estevez/Diaz/Pazos can’t possibly be worse.

Bob K
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Bob K

Rockies making organizational changes. From MLBTradeRumors: “Thomas Harding of MLB.com confirms that the Rockies have dismissed several minor league coaches, including longtime Triple-A manager Glenallen Hill (link). Double-A hitting coach Lee Stevens and Single-A hitting coach Norberto Martin will also be let go, according to assistant general manager of player development Zach Wilson. A member of the club’s coaching ranks since 2004, Hill was previously first base coach with Colorado’s big league squad from 2007 to 2012. The 54-year-old Santa… Read more »

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Interesting.

One thing that really bothered me (and I don’t believe I’ve commented on it) is what appeared to be a really down year in the Rockies minor league system, top to bottom, very few exceptions.

The Hitting Coach thing is especially interesting. Hopefully, this portends to a change in Organizational strategy with an adoption of a global, Organization wide hitting strategy ala’ the Dodgers (and many other Organizations).

Bob K
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Bob K

It appears that it was Bridich who pushed for the opt out in Arenado’s contract.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/nl-notes-arenado-cano-mets-nats.html

Bob K
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Bob K

RHP Julian Fernandez was taken in the 2017 Rule 5 draft by the SF Giants. He was subsequently waived and claimed by the Marlins. He spent the past 2 years on the MLB IL gaining 2 years of MLB service time. The Marlins have returned him to the Rockies.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/marlins-return-rule-5-pick-julian-fernandez-to-rockies.html

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Saw this earlier today Bob.

Here’s a guy with 2 years of ML service time. Clock is ticking. I bring him to ST and audition him for the BP.

Bob K
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Bob K

That is fine if he is healthy by then. His 2 years of service time were spent on the IL. I say leave him off the 40 man roster and hope that someone else takes him in the Rule 5 draft or just let him become a free agent.. Interesting tidbit that the Pirates are one of 3 teams that have a combined negative WAR from their pitching draftees over the past 8 seasons. Obviously there are teams that make… Read more »

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Why should the Monfort’s want to change the way they do business? Rox finish 2019 6th in MLB attendance (just barely shy of 3M). This coming on the heels of last season’s 7th in MLB attendance at just over 3M. Basically…..about 100K less fans attended this season even though the team went from 91 wins to 71 wins. New TV deal. McGregor Square Project well underway. This should be a big income producer. Team valuation has probably doubled since the… Read more »

roxnsox
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roxnsox

I’d add their loyalty-to-a-fault mode, whether it be to players or bad contracts or stale coaching.

Bob K
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Bob K

RHP Ashton Goudeau doing good in Arizona Fall League.

13 IP – 4 H – 0 BB – 18 K – 0.00 ERA

https://www.mlb.com/rockies/news/ahston-goudeau-rockies-arizona-fall-league

sdcarp
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sdcarp

NICE!

I like this from the article:

“the Rockies eyed Goudeau as a long reliever who would work multiple innings.”

Translation – with new RP rules moving forward (and even without these rules – this is already a trend), the multi-inning (or even full inning) RPer is destined to be super valuable.

Bob K
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Bob K

Rockies LHP Chris Rusin has chosen to become a free agent.

Bob K
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sdcarp
Guest
sdcarp

What a mess.

One of my many takeaways is that Tyler Anderson’s knee situation must be bad.

The other “many” takeaways is that all of this is on Bridich.

Bob K
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Bob K
Bob K
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Bob K
Bob K
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Bob K

Salt River Rafters win the AFL championship game. Rockies Ashton Goudeau pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings with one hit and 3 Ks to get the win.

I am thinking that the Rockies need to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Since he is already 27, he probably needs to be in the majors next year. He definitely needs to be in spring training 2020.

https://www.mlb.com/news/salt-river-wins-2019-arizona-fall-league-championship

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Goudeau looks as tall and lanky as Randy Johnson.

The Rox have all sorts of dead wood on the 40 man. You certainly make room for this guy.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

How many times have I said the Rox should look to the Ray’s and A’s as models????

Well, the Red Sox are currently looking. They’ll most likely hire Chaim Bloom (Rays VP…..he looks like he’s maybe 18 YO) as their GM this week.

That gives us:

Dodgers – Andrew Friedman (Rays)
Giants – Farhan Zaidi (A’s)
Red Sox – most likely Bloom (Rays)

These teams get it. It’s really not that difficult.

Bob K
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Bob K

Looks like the Pirates have pretty much cleaned house. The most recent firing is GM Neal Huntington. Other firings have been team president Frank Coonelly, manager Clint Hurdle, pitching coach Ray Searage and bench coach Tom Prince. Personally I would not mind seeing Ray Searage given a special position in the Rockies organization allowing him the ability to work with development of pitchers at all levels. His latest successful reclamation project was former Rockies pitcher Jordan Lyles who is said… Read more »

sdcarp
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sdcarp

You’re correct regarding Searage. He won’t be out of a job long.

Bob K
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Bob K

Makes you wonder what kind of dysfunction is going on with the Diamondbacks when two men have been offered the pitching coach position and both have turned it down.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

You’ve got to figure Joe Girardi, David Ross, and Jayce Tingler all have to put together staffs, and are in arguably better situations. So, perhaps guys are using the DBacks to gain a bit of leverage??? Who knows.

Bob K
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Bob K

Pat Valaika has been claimed off of waivers by the Orioles. This brings the 40 man roster down to 38. More openings are still needed since at least 3 of the 5 on the 60 day IL will need 40 man roster spots. This does not include spots needed to protect minor league prospects from the Rule 5 draft.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/orioles-claim-pat-valaika.html

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Tyler Anderson claimed by Giants. We’ll regret this one.

Bob K
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Bob K
Bob K
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Bob K
Bob K
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Bob K

Chad Bettis and Tim Melville made it through waivers and were outrighted to AAA. Bettis has already declare for free agency and Melville is expected to do the same. With the previous moves and Butera being a free agent, the 40 man roster should be at 36 once Rodgers, Gray and Oberg are reinstated.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/rockies-outright-chad-bettis-tim-melville.html

They still need to make some trades to shed some big money contracts of players that are not producing.

Bob K
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Bob K

Jairo Diaz is also a free agent.

Bob K
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Bob K

Important dates in 2019 – 2020 offseason.

November 20 is the deadline to protect Rule 5 Draft eligible players by adding them to the 40 man roster. December 12 is the Rule 5 Draft.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/2019-20-offseason-calendar.html

Bob K
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Bob K

Former Rockies pitcher Matt Herges is expected to be hired as the pitching coach for the Diamondbacks.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/diamondbacks-to-hire-matt-herges-as-pitching-coach.html

roxnsox
Guest
roxnsox

Who had the Nats to win it all? Nobody, that’s who. I love when underdogs and teams who haven’t done it (ever, or in a long time) step up and take it!

Bob K
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Bob K

The Giants have claimed RHP Rico Garcia. I found some of the comments to be spot on.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/giants-claim-rico-garcia.html

sdcarp
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sdcarp

You mean like this comment (for example):

“Your suspicions are correct. They obviously know more about who THEY value more highly. My problem is not with their sticking to their valuations. My problem is that their valuations make little to no sense and they keep making the same mistakes over and over again with no consequences to the jobs of front office personnel.”

I agree Bob K

Bob K
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Bob K

I was confident that you would agree with that comment.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Couple of items:

First – FanGraphs top 50 Free Agents:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

I don’t expect much Rockies action with this list. The one guy that fits a clear need and “might” have money for is at #27, Travis D’Arnaud.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Item #2 – also from my beloved FanGraphs – 2020 Steamer Projections: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0 Couple of notes regarding STEAMER. First, this is NOT my favorite projection system. Second (with it being said that it’s not my favorite system), I do find it intriguing that both Gray and Marquez crack the top 30 pitchers based on WAR. I liked a lot oF what I saw in Jon Gray last season. I see one incredibly narrow path to success for the 2020 Rockies… Read more »

roxnsox
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roxnsox

Carp! How the heck do you call Blackmon a black hole offensively? (Or are you speaking of Tapia, #4?)

sdcarp
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sdcarp

I’m sorry, I frequently use the word “offense” when I really should say “everyday.” I think Charlie is a defensive black hole, Desmond is an offensive black hole (and isn’t good defensively either considering his athletic ability). I think our C position is an offensive black hole, and our bench is really both. Tapia confounds me. The talent is there (offensively and defensively) for Tapia. But, is the baseball IQ? So far, I say “no.”

jimboelrod
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jimboelrod

I say give Sam Hilliard a long look in left field this spring and make Desmond an expensive pinch hitter/backup.

Bob K
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Bob K

Trevor Story is the only Rockies player to win a Silver Slugger this year.

Bob K
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Bob K

Here is an Offseason Outlook for the Rockies. They appear to have missed the fact that Jairo Diaz is also a free agent.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/offseason-outlook-colorado-rockies-11.html

Bob K
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Bob K

Once again speculation on who the Rockies should trade away begins. In my opinion, the Rockies do not plan to trade Jon Gray. It just isn’t their style along with the fact that they are already short on quality starting pitching. I do believe that they will be shopping Blackmon but doubt they will get a trade done.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/trade-candidate-jon-gray.html

sdcarp
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sdcarp

These two articles you’ve linked Bob K do a great job illustrating the dire straits (one of my all-time favorite bands) the entire Rockies Organization finds itself in entering 2020. No payroll flexibility. Bad Farm system. Little in the way of attractive, tradable commodities (although the Rox don’t think this way anyway). The best “prospect” (Rodgers) having to overcome a serious baseball injury.

It’s just not good.

Bob K
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Bob K

I assume that the Rockies quietly resigned Jairo Diaz. He is no longer listed as a free agent after 2019 on Rockies Roster. All players have been reinstated from the 60 man IL. The 40 man roster is currently at 36.

Bob K
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Bob K

Rockies sign IF Eric Stamets to a minor league deal with invite to spring training.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/rockies-sign-eric-stamets.html

sdcarp
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sdcarp

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/rockies-trade-rumors-jon-gray.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

If this is true, please make me GM for a day! The Padres system is so stacked, the “right” trade with them could be the beginning of a franchise transformation. Their 2nd tier young guys (Franmil Reyes/Josh Naylor/etc) are better than anyone we have.

Bob K
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Bob K

I have no doubt that the Rockies are getting asked about possible trades for Jon Gray. With the Rockies current shortage of quality starting pitchers, I doubt that Gray will be traded. It wouldn’t be the first time that other teams wanted a Rockies player and no trades happened. I believe that a number of teams wanted German Marquez and Kyle Freeland last year.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

Agreed. Once again, way too bold for the Rockies to even consider a franchise-transforming move. However, I think they NEED to keep him.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

F. Reyes now plays for the Indians (but good overall point)

sdcarp
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sdcarp

That’s right – thanks RnS!

Bob K
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Bob K

From MLBTradeRumors: “It is still tough to gauge whether the Rockies will end up pulling off some major roster moves or simply make a few tweaks. GM Jeff Bridich and owner Dick Monfort have suggested the club will need to improve largely from within, while also expressing optimism that it can do so. But we’ve heard persistent chatter regarding possible trade scenarios involving top Colorado players — much of it speculative, to be fair. Odds are, the Rox will simply… Read more »

Bob K
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