HOT STOVE 2016

One last big RWO Hot Stove push before Spring Training kicks in fully.  Here is your chance to start “fresh” with your thoughts on what went right, wrong or not at all during the offseason.  What have you heard that’s coming up and what would you like to see before spring first pitch?  Let’s blow this sucker up like past Hot Stove threads and keep it goin’ till the Purple Kool-Aid’s a flowin’!!!

Attachment

jaredean

Fan of all things Baseball, perpetual Rockies dreamer, family man and dog owner.

173 Comments

    • sdcarp

      January 19, 2016

      Kyle Parker to be DFA’d.

      I’m here to eat a little crow on this one. When he was drafted, and early in his minor league days I defended him regularly. My thought process was that since played football….and therefore baseball only part time, he could be a late bloomer. I stubbornly stood by this belief until last year. Obviously too much swing a miss, but he just doesn’t look like the dynamic athlete that he did as a Clemson QB.

      Parker DFA’d, Wilin in Korea. I really hate to say it, but I’m not at all optimistic about Matzek and Bulter. That whole little micro-generation has sort of flubbed save Nolan and Dickerson.

      Reply
        • Agbayani

          January 20, 2016

          RMH, I’m kind of optimistic on Matzek too. Unlike some of the other Steve Blass Disease guys, Matzek has had this before (really, twice before) and has gotten over it, so why won’t the third time stick?

          Reply
      • Agbayani

        January 20, 2016

        Kyle Parker: surprising to me since I thought they’d give him one more year. There really isn’t anyone pushing him at 1B in the minor league system – Will Swanner? Nope. Orioles have a couple minor league first basemen who are now blocked with the Chris Davis re-signing — why not snag one of ’em? I am no Ben Paulsen optimist, and I am an outright Mark Reynolds hater … can it be THAT hard to find a serviceable first baseman?

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          January 21, 2016

          A name to keep in the back of your mind – Jake Bauers. He’s a Ray’s 1B prospect. Borderline top 5 guy in their system. Started in the Padres system and ended up with Rays……maybe in the Wil Myers deal? He’s trending towards being a solid average, really solid OBP type guy with moderate power (polar opposite of Reynolds). The Rays need an OFer, and have been linked with the Rox. Jus’ sayin.

          Reply
    • sdcarp

      January 21, 2016

      I just want to say – if the Rox sign Yvonni Gallardo (and thereby give up the 38th pick in the amateur draft) you’ll never hear from me again, because I will have died from shock and anger.

      Reply
      • Bob K.

        January 21, 2016

        For some reason Gallardo has always pitched very well against the Pirates. He has always pitched very poorly against the Rockies and has never pitched well at Coors Field. I agree that it would be a terrible mistake for the Rockies to sign him.

        Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        January 22, 2016

        Fasten your seatbelt and drink some purple vodka, sdcarp:

        Rockies and Gallardo’s agent meet again today (Friday) after meeting yesterday (Thursday) according to Thomas Harding.

        Reply
        • Bob K.

          January 22, 2016

          Per MLB Network, Gallardo’s ERA at Coor’s Field is 10.07.

          Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        January 22, 2016

        Nunez was rated only two spots behind Stephenson the first round pick of the Reds.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      January 22, 2016

      Let’s step into “hypothetical” for a moment (this is a reach – use your imagination!):

      Fundamental change -Let’s assume that a light switch flips on at the BSCS and they suddenly “get” the concept of sell high and flipping players that have no current value at the deadline.

      Now – with the above assumption, allow me to postulate this:

      1. Sign Gallardo (and lose 38th pick) for 4 years. He’s 29. Looking at his last 5 years, he’s about a 2.5 pitcher (1 bad year, 1 good year, but in general consistent).
      2. Flip JDLR at the deadline. The return will likely be similar to that 38th pick. JDLR will be attractive as a short term rental. He long term valuable is very questionable as he’s nearing that magic 600-700 post TJ IP threshold.
      3. So we’ve essentially replaced JDLR with YG and replaced the 38th draft pick with a trade.
      4. The idiotic signing of Qualls allows Miguel Castro to be a SP in ABQ this season. It’s worth the gamble for the 20 YO.
      5. A Gallardo signing virtually guarantees Chatwood to the Pen…..which will help his post 2nd TJ chances.
      6. Move McMahon to 1B.
      7. Extend Arenado.
      8. In a very risky show of good faith…..extend Jon Gray. (It’s a show of good faith to all young pitchers in the Rox Organization).
      9. Going back to my “fundamental change” premise…..be opportunistic with Nick Hundley and DJLM.
      10. Go back to original foul territory at Coors.
      11. Extend nets.
      12. Fire Dinger.

      Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        January 22, 2016

        The Monfarts need to show that they’re moving in the right direction by doing the easiest task of all – fire Dinger. At minimum, have the ushers move him away from the home plate in the ninth inning.

        Reply
      • IggyRox

        January 23, 2016

        When your team is owned by the Montforts, why do we even give a rat’s whatever about Dinger? Dinger is the least significant thing on this ‘team’. Until we cure the base problem, a thousand Dingers won’t change things around here.

        Reply
    • Julian

      January 22, 2016

      Should we bring back Carlos Torres, who was just designated by the Mets? There’s an interesting article about him on mlbtraderumors.com.

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      January 25, 2016

      I submitted my ballot for the Purp 30 list and there were 41 ballots cast. Almost feels like being a HOF voter. sdcarp also submitted his ballot. Below is my personal ballot and the PR community ranking in parenthesis. I think I did fairly well pretty much in line with the community tabulation except for #29 Breiling Eusebio on my ballot (blame sdcarp for influencing me to put him on my ballot LOL 🙂 ) There are still eleven more prospects to be revealed in the near future for the top 11 of the Purp 30 list. All of my top 11 (except Murphy and Nikorak swap places) will closely match the PR community’s list.

      1. Brendan Rodgers (4)
      2. Jon Gray
      3. David Dahl
      4. Jeff Hoffman (3)
      5. Ryan McMahon (5)
      6. Kyle Freeland (8)
      7. Raimel Tapia (6)
      8. Mike Nikorak (16)
      9. Forrest Wall (11)
      10. Antonio Senzatela (9)
      11. Trevor Story (7)
      12. Dom Nunez (13)
      13. Miguel Castro (12)
      14. Ryan Castellani (19)
      15. Tyler Anderson (17)
      16. Tom Murphy (10)
      17. Christian Adames (15)
      18. Jesus Tinoco (14)
      19. Peter Lambert (21)
      20. Tyler Nevin (20)
      21. Kevin Padlo (22) Update: Replace Padlo with German Marquez to keep my list simple.
      22. Daniel Montano (32 – HM)
      23. Alex Balog (23)
      24. Jairo Dias (28)
      25. Jordan Patterson (18)
      26. David Hill (35 – HM)
      27. Javier Medina (not top 35)
      28. Zach Jemiola (33 – HM)
      29. Breiling Eusebio (not top 35)
      30. Sam Moll (26)

      My subjective interpretation for the ballot is that if I’m within five places of the community’s accumulative ballot, I’m pretty much in line. With that said, I am more opportunistic than the PR community for Nikorak, Montano, Medina, and Eusebio. I’m more pessimistic than the community for Murphy and Patterson. I count all HMs the same as #31 as it gets difficult to separate the players at the bottom of the Purp 30 ballot.

      I’d like to see sdcarp’s ballot here and compare to PR 30 ballot.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 25, 2016

        I did cast a ballot. Here’s what I posted December 14th:

        sdcarp’s Top 30
        1. Brendan Rodgers
        2. Jeff Hoffman
        3. Ryan McMahon
        4. Jon Gray (I’m high on Gray – but not quite as high as most. However, I will say this (being an old guy) – in 1987 the Braves traded 36 YO Doyle Alexander to the Tigers for a kid named John Smoltz. Smoltz was brought up in 88 and struggled. But he started taking off in 89. Physically, Gray reminds me a bit of that 20 YO Smoltz kid. Not even remotely saying Gray will become Smoltz “like.” But I see some physical similarities).
        5. David Dahl (think Adam Eaton of the CWS)
        6. Antonio Senzatela
        7. Trevor Story
        8. Forrest Wall
        9. Kyle Freeland (nice to see him re-establish himself in the AFL).
        10. Raimel Tapia.
        11. Dom Nunez (this is the C in the system I like. Big bat AND defensive skills).
        12. Breiling Eusebio (18 year old LH SP. Key stats from Domincan Summer League – 72 IP, 76K, 1.88 ERA. I’ve never even seen a photo of this kid. But the DSL is no joke. Any 18 YO LHed SP with a K/BB ratio like this opens my eyes)
        13. Mike Nikorak
        14. Tom Murphy (I’m not as high on him as many. See him as a swing-and-miss C without great pitcher skills. He just got rid of one of those. IMO this is the Prospect we should be shopping the most).
        15. Jesus Tinoco (the steal of the Tulo trade. Was really tempted to go higher. Kid throws strikes).
        16. Miguel Castro (signing Qualls and Motte to 2 year deals make me think we’re going to try turning Castro into a SP).
        17. Phil Nevin (move him to 1B).
        18. Peter Lambert (I think he’ll throw strikes).
        19. Jairo Diaz.
        20. Tyler Anderson.
        21. Christhian Adames
        22. Daniel Montano
        23. Carlos Herrera.
        24. Alex Balog.
        25. Ryan Castellani.
        26. David Hill (another guy that I think will throw strikes).
        27. Wander Cabrera.
        28. Carlos Estevez.
        29. Sam Moll.
        30. Jordan Patterson.

        By Christmas, I hope we’ll be able to insert 3 of the following names (or similar):

        Raul Mondessi Jr (KC)
        Alex Jackson (Sea)
        Spencer Adams (CWS)
        Carson Fulmer (CWS)
        Tyler Danish (CWS)
        Courtney Hawkins (CWS)
        Luke Weaver (StL)
        Marco Gonzalez (StL)
        Reynaldo Lopez (Was)
        Austin Voth (Was)
        Brandon Nimmo (NYM)

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          January 25, 2016

          If I voted today, I would switch Hoffman and McMahon.

          Reply
        • sdcarp

          January 25, 2016

          Two thoughts to add:

          1. Breiling Eusebio’s stat line should also include (only) 16 walks.
          2. I’ve long said its a mistake to rate minor league systems by depth (although depth IS a good thing). I look at “difference makers.” By “difference maker” I mean a potential legit all-star (not a “my team sucks but had to send one guy” all-star). I great farm system is lucky to have 3 difference makers at any given time. I thought we only had one – Brendan Rogers. But I’ve upgraded Ryan McMahon to that level. We’ve got a couple of others that have the potential to step up to that level. So we’re borderline making an “A” grade on my tougher scale.

          Reply
          • rockymountainhigh

            January 27, 2016

            I think we have more “difference makers” than you think if we go by top 10 at each position by MLB.com Jim Callis:

            Dom Nunez (#7)
            Jon Gray (#6)
            Forrest Wall (#4)
            Ryan McMahon (#3)
            Brendan Rodgers (#6)
            David Dahl (OFs not yet unveiled, but he’s likely to be top 10)

            Jeff Hoffman apparently just missed top ten RHP position. Rockies prospects were missing only from LHP and 1B. Looking at the above list, all were ranked (Dahl?) #7 or better.

            If most of them, if not all, are difference makers when they reach the majors we are looking at this line up in this window of contention:

            Gray, Hoffman, Matzek, Butler, Anderson, Tinoco, Castro, Lambert, Balog, Castellani
            C – Nunez, Murphy
            1B – McMahon, Nevin
            2B – Wall
            SS – Rodgers
            3B – NoDo
            OF – CarGo, Dahl, Dickerson, Blackmon, Patterson, Tapia, Montano

            super-utility – Adames, Padlo

            Bullpen – Diaz, Oberg, Moll, Miller, Ottavino, Chatwood

            My future roster has got me thinking maybe this is the reason JB is holding on to the four lefty OFs until their value sky-rocket and get a #2 pitcher in return (or let them walk if his poker faced gamble backfires, really nothing to lose for the window of contention)

            Reply
            • sdcarp

              January 27, 2016

              Keep in mind my definition of a “difference maker” is a legitimate future all-star. No way I see all those guys becoming future all stars. That would be some sort of unprecedented achievement for a Farm system, any Farm system.

              I do see some solid everyday players, some role players, some complimentary players……..lots of potential usefulness. I see more in Rogers and McMahon. Hoffman……maybe, health permitting.

    • Mike Raysfan

      January 25, 2016

      Ok, so I’ve been out of the loop most of hot stove for most of the winter. Too much winter stuff going on. I’ve been watching MLBtv periodically to keep up. They really haven’t had much to say about the Rockies all winter. I just had it on and was kind of shocked to hear Rosenthal say the Rockies are trying to get Dexter Fowler. HUH?

      What have I missed. I thought they are trying to unload outfielders?

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      January 25, 2016

      Blackmon signs for $3.5MM. Only LeMahieu is still not signed.

      Reply
    • Julian

      January 27, 2016

      7 prospects in the top 101, although none in the top 20. McMahon has too many errors at 3B. Maybe they should move him to 1B.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 27, 2016

        Two thoughts here – first regarding McMahon, on the surface, I thought the same thing. Too many errors. But I’ve read several scouting reports (independent of one another) that actually claim he should become above average at 3rd – defensively. Obviously there’s a (good) roadblock at 3rd in Denver at the moment. So this may become a moot question and he’ll move to 1st anyway.

        7 in the top 101 is outstanding. None in the top 20 (although I bet Rogers will be in that position this time next year) underscores my “concern” that while very deep on the Farm, we may lack just a bit at the most elite, top end level. I don’t like the way many publications rank Farm systems. I think ranking should be skewed towards elite guys. Just my opinion.

        Reply
    • roxnsox

      January 28, 2016

      Dickerson to the Rays for P Jake McGee (two minor leaguers also exchanged, don’t know who). Analysis please, fellas! 🙂

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 28, 2016

        I’ve been skiing all day. Did we make a trade!

        I have a Rays mole that I’ll likely talk to tonight. I’ll report back to the troops later.

        Reply
    • ProgMatinee

      January 28, 2016

      Good: 1 less LH OF to block David Dahl’s eventual call up

      Bad: They dealt the one with the biggest upside.

      If they intend to flip McGee this is the kind of trade that usually bites the Rockies in the ass because pitchers lose value after a stint at Coors.

      That said, can’t have enough relievers on a team that burns them up quickly.

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      January 28, 2016

      I’m going to wait until all the pieces fall in place. It might not be the only trade; McGee could be flipped for a good prospect or we don’t know what prospect we are getting in return (won’t be TB’s top 10). We also don’t know who we flipped to the Rays yet.

      For me, the best thing from the trade is not having to worry about Dickerson in the OF. I like Parra, Blackmon, and CarGo in the OF. The OF meets one of my criteria in “Winning at Altitude.”

      It’s just me, but I love the just 2 BB/9 ratio for McGee.

      Update: It is German Marquez we are getting in return from TB. Looks similar to Tinoco. My favorite stat of course is this…. less than 2 BB/9. Rumors on PR has him ticketed for Modesto or Hartford.

      Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        January 28, 2016

        I’m glad it was Padlo we gave up instead of another good prospect. We had a logjam at 3B in the first place. Arenado, McMahon, and Tyler Nevin. I prefer Nevin and McMahon over Padlo.

        So we used the Padlo currency to get German Marquez a pitcher. More pitchers and less bottleneck at 3B down on the farm. Great trade.

        Reply
    • IggyRox

      January 28, 2016

      Never been a big Dickerson proponent, but I like a lot of the kid and a lot of his game. Didn’t like his D, didn’t like his base running. Perfect AL guy to play 1B or DH.

      That being said, they didn’t get enough for him. I actually like McGee, but he should have been the #2 guy in the deal. They gave up a professional hitter (thanks Woody Paige) for a setup guy. That’s why we’re all so frustrated.

      Good news is my Yahoo fantasy baseball opened up today and the Broncos are in the Super Bowl (not necessarily in that order).

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      January 28, 2016

      Roxnsox wanted analysis – so here’s analysis (and keep in mind what my Mom always told me – “it’s worth what you paid for it,” which in this case means ZERO.

      1. Smacks of Monfart’s tampering. He believes we can be good in 2016 and is handcuffing Bridich.
      2. Remember what I always say – the other 29 teams are smart. In the era of advanced analytics, everyone is hip to our home vs. road splits. We (Rox fans) are WAY overvaluing some of our players.
      3. I actually like McGee (and Parra). They don’t make much sense on a 60-70 win team, but they do some things well.
      4. I like Parra even better as a corner OFer (as opposed to a CFer in a Blackmon trade scenario)
      5. In theory, McGee is the poster child for “flippable” at trade deadline. Unfortunately, I’m not sure the Rox get that concept.
      6. The Rox still haven’t come to grips with the sell high concept, but they get a solid B+ on the sell low concept (dumb asses!).
      7. #6 being said, I’m OK with dealing Dickerson. I just wish we had received 2 German Marquez’s instead of a McGee (who may yet be turned into a Marquez at the deadline).
      8. Speaking of Marquez – RMH made the Tinoco comparison. I can see some of that for sure. He’s not the physical specimen that Tinoco is (Tinoco is a big, strong kid)…..but otherwise there are similarities.
      9. From the Rays perspective, sort of a low risk, potential high reward trade. They already have several young SPers in their rotation, and several more waiting in the wings. So Marquez was completely expendable to them. With the DH, they can hide some of Dickerson’s warts.
      10. I had somewhat recently revised my 2016 prediction downward to 62-100. McGee over Freidrich might be worth a win or two. Parra in place of a part time 2015 Dickerson (because of his injuries) might be worth a win or two. Motte is a marginal improvement over Ax. Qualls…..OK, I’ll take a win away. A confident Bettis and healthy Lyles is probably 3-4 wins. So I’m leaning towards the current 2016 project (let’s call it sdcarp p16.3) of 68-94.
      11. Please Dear God do not sign Yvonni Gallardo and give up that 38th pick.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 29, 2016

        BTW – regarding my 2016 projection and our 15/16 Hot Stove…..none of these deals change my outlook the we can field a respectable team in 18 and perhaps a contender in 19. The deals don’t change the time line (which is a big reason I question making them). The only real positive I see coming from the deals (looking to the future) is that there’s no doubt in my mind Miguel Castro will be turned into a SP. This could pay positive dividends. What I don’t like (reading the tea leaves) is the Chatwood will remain a SP.

        Bottom line – with the Hot Stove season winding down – extremely disappointed. The BSCS is doing nothing but reinforcing its reputation for ineptness.

        Reply
    • Julian

      January 29, 2016

      I’m surprised we couldn’t get more for Dickerson. It certainly doesn’t look great on paper. But if we get a decent closer for a while, and then flip him, and if the young pitcher, who I assume will start at Hartford, one day is a back of the rotation starter for the Rockies in their contention window, then maybe the trade will be ok. It means that Parra plays left field, which us an upgrade.

      But I can’t believe it’s Jan. 29, and management hasn’t provided us one additional starter for 2016. So, it appears that we are going with DLR, Bettis, Gray, Lyles, and one other of Chatwood, Rusin, Hale, etc. I assume that Butler and Matzek will start in AAA.

      Reply
    • Pooter

      January 29, 2016

      This off season I have to say my optimism is at an all time low. HOWEVER, this deal kind of raises my hopes a little. I like Dickerson, but this deal kind of gives me a vision of a plan for 2016.

      Bullpen: Great (When Ottavino returns) Dominant!
      Offense: Great

      Starting Pitching: This is where I usually get fooled. You look at all of those guys and it appears to be a bunch of solid pitchers and for the first time some depth. Just like a bullpen without a closer, a pitching staff without an ace is just as ineffective.

      They need at least 3 positive surprise performances out of their rotation. One being the emergence of an ace in Colorado. I look forward to seeing Chatwood back, I hope he does well!

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      January 29, 2016

      Here’s my quick take on some of the ever-perplexing (Blackmon’s term!) Rockies moves:

      1. Gallardo? No, no, NO! Rosenthal talks about the plummeting market for Gallardo and suggests he may have to accept a one-year/make good contract from someone: http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2016/01/26/foxs-ken-rosenthal-teams-shy-signing-former-rangers-starter-yovani-gallardo.

      I guess I could live with that (the 38th draft pick is, well, not the most valuable thing in the world to surrender), but Gallardo (decreased velocity/K rate, etc.) is one giant red flag. How’d you like to have not one year of Kyle Kendrick, but 4!

      2. Dickerson, McGee, a couple middling prospects: carp hit this one on the head, so I don’t have much to add. It’s the old “in a vacuum …” thing — kind of a fair exchange, but why? It does ring of Monfort meddling: “Jeff, I don’t care what you do, but just make sure we don’t have all those bullpen meltdowns this summer.” I liked Dickerson, I would’ve stuck him at 1B, found a really fast/great defensive/cheapo outfielder instead of Parra, but then, well, that just wouldn’t be the Rockies, would it …

      Pooter’s comment: yeah, we actually could — IF things break right — have a really good bullpen:

      – Qualls: kind of sucks, but fairly cheap. At his age, I’m not sure he can give you more than 50 or 60 o.k. innings, which is a problem for the Rockies since a guy like him usually gets overused out of necessity. But he still projects as …. better than what we threw out there in the 6th/7th innings last year.

      – Motte: carp says the velocity may bounce back a bit. I don’t like the 2 years, but he could wind up being pretty good.

      – McGee: TJ surgery 7 years ago, but little mileage on the arm, so carp’s 700 innings thing won’t be an issue. He’s been really good, but there’s a reason the Rays let him go — even a really good 60 innings or so doesn’t help that much. Pushes Boone back into the lefty specialist role, where he can…

      – … Logan: I hate, hate, hated this signing, again because of the 3 years. But I’m stubborn, and I still see good stuff in between injuries, and I’m kind of mystified as to why a reliably decent reliever has had such bad results over the last 2 years. Is it a Coors thing? Let me make a prediction: he’ll be decent this year! (and let me remind you that this is from the guy who predicted a Wilton Lopez bounceback …)

      – Ottovino: smart, works hard, he’ll be back by June

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 30, 2016

        Couple of additional thoughts here Ag;

        1. German Marquez was already on the Rays 40 man roster. So now he’s on the Rox 40 man…..hence Friedrich’s DFA. I’m OK with losing Friedrich. I’ve noted many times were a bad team and have lots of dead weight on the 40 man. But by placing Marquez in Friedrich’s spot, were consuming that spot by a guy that won’t sniff the majors until mid-2017 at the earliest. This fact is why he was probably weighed on the Rays decision making process.

        2. The trade illustrates why the Rays (a perennial playoff contender on a shoestring budget) are so much smarter than the Rox. A Dickerson/Pearce platoon for them is projected to be worth 2.7 WAR. Quite similar to 132M (+/- 25M per year) Justin Upton’s projection. Better than Cargo’s projection (for 18M). The Rays match the Rox and Tigers for about 6M per year. Somewhere Billy Beane is smiling. Super interesting article:

        http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016s-most-promising-platoons/

        3. Have to say…..Doug Fister to the Astros worries me. They were one of Gallardo’s suitors.

        Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      January 29, 2016

      It seems the majority of the fans, not just here but all over the cyberspace, seemed to dislike the trade. Forgive me if I sound like an everlasting optimist. That does not mean I am optimistic about this year, just that I’m “representing” the alternate viewpoint.

      Moving Dickerson out meets one of my “Winning at Altitude” mantras; now we have two Gold Glovers in the corners and a respectable CF. Plus if Dickerson gets injured again, then we would have moved him when the value was still high.

      I get the sophisticated sabermetrics saying it doesn’t improve the team much in terms of wins in the immediate future. But I totally understand what JB is doing; get rid of pitchers that can’t command his pitches while stockpiling pitchers in return.

      The bullpen JB is building is a test to see if a lockdown bullpen makes a difference in games won/lost. Then JB will know for sure that is required to win championships. We acquired Motte and McGee for the back end so we can let the future BOBs pitch in low leverage situations (like Oberg, Diaz, Castro, Ottavino, Miller, Moll, etc).

      As for those who whine about not getting a #1 or #2 type starter via a trade, a top shelf starter is not needed if the Rox has a rotation of five JDLR types. When the 2007 Rox went to the WS, did we have a top shelf starter? NOPE. (Francis doesn’t count). Did we have a #4 and #5 starter. NOPE. (Mark Redman nowhere near that good). Instead JB has stockpiled the pitchers and all we need is five #3s to win at altitude. There’s about 15-25 SPs that I can list here, but saving space here.

      The Rox will have three players (CarGo, McGee, and DJLM) flippable at deadline to those who are desperate for missing pieces. In return JB will continue stockpiling pitchers.

      I’m ok with stockpiling pitchers, getting rid of high BB/9 pitchers, while not giving up the farm. That instead of nuclear rebuild is perfectly ok with me and I can sleep well at night.

      Reply
      • Pooter

        January 29, 2016

        I agree on everything but Francine not being considered an ace in 2017. Anyone that wins 17 of more games in a year should be considered an ace. I like and for now will trust in JB’s plan

        Reply
        • Pooter

          January 29, 2016

          I meant 2007 obviously… Long week!

          Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 29, 2016

        FWIW – you know I TOTALLY respect your opinion, even though I disagree with some significant chunks of it.

        I’ll say one thing about Dickerson that bothered me (footnote – I’m about to get very hypothetical and use “gut” feel)……..when he made his ill-fated comeback from plantar late last year, it appeared to me that he had really lost his conditioning. It appeared to me he had gained significant weight (not good weight). Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I’m reading too much into it. Maybe there were extenuating circumstances. That being said….if I’m in that position, I’m in the Gym everyday working my ass off. I didn’t see visual evidence that he was doing that. That did make me wonder a bit about attitude. Jus sayin’.

        Reply
    • Bill

      January 29, 2016

      I’ve been out of touch most of the winter but checked in this morning to see what the reaction was to the trade. We knew that once Parra was signed that the Rockies would have to get rid of one of their left-handed hitting outfields. (Although this being the Rockies nothing but head-scratching is really certain). But I like the trade. I got to see McGee pitch quite a bit and he is a talented hard-throwing left-handed pitcher. And is SO to BB rate is great. Will he crack here at Coors? Who knows but he said the right thing. Said he grew up in Reno so was used to pitching at altitude. 4500 feet or so. And unlike others we have picked up in the past he does throw strikes.

      Dickerson could end up being a great hitter. However his fielding left a great deal to be desired and his base-running was a major contributor to the Rockies goal of getting at least one runner thrown out on the bases each game. I think he’ll have difficulty finding balls in the Tampa dome. And, if I remember correctly, his home/road splits we horrible. Even worse than the usual Colorado numbers.

      Been so long between checking out my favorite site that I had to login. Wow! By the way I was watching a Nuggets game from last weekend and they showed Charlie Blackmon hitting a back to the basket half court shot like Rocky the mascot. But he looked overweight to me. And that gets to me to one of my pet peeves. The Nuggets have one of the best mascots in sports and the Rockies have the worst.

      I’ll probably go back into hibernation until late February unless the Rockies make some good news. But wanted to comment on the TV situation and the blackout rules. The one big purchase I make each year is the full MLB package. I love to watch baseball and getting one more year to listen (and watch) Vin Scully is a treat. But for the budget minded get the MLB radio package. I believe every game is available from either the home team or visiting team broadcasters. I’m not sure if the Rockies are playing that we can listen to the other teams broadcasters or not. I usually listen when I’m in the office and I just put it on my computer.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 29, 2016

        Illustrates just how bad he is, and how we (myself included – in fact I was on his bandwagon) over-valued him as a Prospect.

        Reply
    • Julian

      January 30, 2016

      And it illustrates how bad we have been at drafting and developing players. Hopefully the new regime will be better.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 30, 2016

        Agree. One huge hurdle that we have to clear is coming to grips with the “draft the best player available regardless of position or need” concept. We did that last year with Rogers. We need to continue with that thought process in the 1st round (and perhaps even the 2nd round).

        When you look back at our 1st round draft mistakes…many were picks to fill a need, and therefore better players were passed over. Pick the better player, let him develop, and trade him for “need” a year or two down the road if necessary. This goes to another issue (there seems to be so many!), we need to be able to think in multiple steps instead of a single step. Think two or more moves ahead instead of making a single move with no apparent additional plan. If we acquired McGee with the idea of flipping him at the deadline……bravo! But based on past Rockies history, please forgive me for believing we haven’t thought that far ahead.

        Reply
    • Agbayani

      January 31, 2016

      So we have both Dickerson and Blackmon looking out of shape … thankfully, Gerardo Parra and Cargo look ripped. Maybe the Rockies need to bring in their Venezuelan strength and fitness coach.

      One thing on Bridich: he still isn’t doing anything to mess with the club’s prospective roster come carp’s 2019 (possible) competition window. McGee has 2 years left of club control; ditto Cargo; ditto Motte and Qualls. They went 3 years on Parra. So I’d be stunned if they gave Gallardo 4 years, although if his price keeps tumbling I guess I could stomach 1 or 2 years. So it’s now all on the prospects and draft picks …

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 31, 2016

        A appreciate that you put “(possible)” when reference my 2019 contention window theory. It’s certainly possible…..I just hope they do the correct things.

        This subject has come up on other websites, and I frequently say I’m frivolous with the Owners money. So I should really practice what I preach and not get so negative about the Qualls signing because fundamentally you’re correct. It doesn’t impact the contention window. If Monfart wants to spend and go from 60-65 wins to 65-70 wins more power to him.

        Reply
    • Agbayani

      January 31, 2016

      Pooter said our bullpen looks great, hitting looks great, starting pitching looks awful. Well, I kind of disagree: starting pitching could (could!) be kind of o.k. It all depends on Gray, Bettis, and Lyles, all of whom — if healthy — have looked like kind of average starters, which is a huge upgrade over what we’ve seen recently.

      As for hitting? Well, I was going to go through the post-Dickerson lineup, but one of the purplerow writers, Matt Gross, beat me to it, so I’ll just go with what he said:

      “For a glimpse into what I’m talking about, here’s 15 of the projected on-base percentage numbers of the Rockies who are likely to get the most plate appearances this season, according to FanGraphs:

      Jose Reyes: .343
      DJ LeMahieu: .338
      Carlos Gonzalez: .336
      Gerardo Parra: .336
      Nolan Arenado: .333
      Charlie Blackmon: .333
      Mark Reynolds: .332
      Cristhian Adames: .323
      Daniel Descalso: .321
      Nick Hundley: .319
      Trevor Story: .307
      Ben Paulsen: .306
      Rafael Ynoa: .305
      Brandon Barnes: .302
      Tom Murphy: .296

      That’s right folks, Jose Reyes is the guy projected to have the highest on base percentage on this team right now.”

      Nice work, Matt. That’s the truth: post-Tulo, post-Dickerson, we’re now left with Cargo (assuming he stays), Arenado, and a bunch of mediocrities or replacement-level offensive players. This is not a lineup that will scare anyone. Strip out some of the Coors inflation and it’s a downright weak lineup, something we haven’t seen around here for quite some time.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        January 31, 2016

        I read Matt’s article last week. The offense is indeed headed towards awful!

        Reply
        • roxnsox

          February 1, 2016

          Oh no! So we’ll be average-to-bad in all three phases now? If true, the pain level grows. Give me some names of hitters in our pipeline to keep my hopes alive!

          Reply
          • roxnsox

            February 1, 2016

            Of course, there are four phases in baseball (I guess – SP, RP, Offense, Defense). I was channeling the football cliche favorites.

            Reply
            • sdcarp

              February 1, 2016

              It’s tempting to add a 5th phase (Managing).

              Here’s the thing…..the BP might be good. I can even a see a semi-realistic scenario (healthy McGee, healthy Motte regaining strength 75 IP+ removed from TJ surgery, continued emergence of Justin Miller, correctly inserting Chatwood in the BP instead of SP) where the BP might be somewhat significantly above average.

              I can also see a semi-realistic scenario of at least average defense. Parra is a significant upgrade over Dickerson. Story/Adames/Descalso represent an upgrade over Reyes. C and 1B should remain about the same.

              We’ll get hammered at the #1 and #2 SP slots simply because we don’t have a #1 or #2 caliber starter. But we have a half dozen guys competing at 3/4/5 that could match up fairly well to most of the other 29 team’s 3/4/5 guys.

              So that brings us to offense and managing. It gets sort of ugly in these last two categories.

    • Agbayani

      February 1, 2016

      roxnsox, the hitter I’ll be watching is CF prospect David Dahl. His minor league career was interrupted a couple times — torn hamstring, then lost his spleen (hey, who needs a spleen? I didn’t even know I had one) in a collision. But he was a high draft pick out of high school and everything suggests he has the talent. I’m hoping to get a look at him if I can make it to spring training this year. A good start in Tulsa, I don’t see why he couldn’t be a September call up, or even earlier.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 1, 2016

        Hartford is the new Tulsa. Yardgoats are the new Drillers. But who knows, the Yardgoats have to play the first 6+ weeks on the road, so they be livin’ on Tulsa time.

        Reply
    • EdtheUmp

      February 2, 2016

      Hello boys and girls…

      Hardly any postings this fall/winter. Traveling with my queen and the 3 dogs enjoying the great outdoors…but…Spring Training games begin in a month.

      RMH is gonna join me the 5th thru the 12th. Any of you RWOers who are coming to the Valley are welcome to join me anytime…I have GREAT seat location tix.

      Sec 109, row 4, seats 7-12 and sec 109, row 5, seats 11 & 12…I can arrange tickets for any games you wish to see. Just let me know on this site and I will share my email address with you in order to coordinate.

      I’m done with the Rockies being competitive…I am now going to embrace the old adage, “I’ll believe it when I see it”.

      I will purchase the single-team TV option from MLB and try and endure the inevitable “I thought they would be above average but now realize I drank way, way too much purple Kool-Ade”.

      Here’s to the warm sunshine about to envelop all who head to the Valley to watch and absorb our wonderful game “up close and personal”.

      All the best to the best fan-site in baseball.

      Reply
      • roxnsox

        February 3, 2016

        Spring training remains but a dream for me, but it’s nice to keep in the “you never know” pocket – and thanks for the warm invite, Ed!

        Reply
      • jaredean

        February 6, 2016

        Ed, you are the man! Thanks for posting this my friend and if i can somehow make it work i’d love to bring my son down and watch a game with you. Always a good time catching some Rox with EdtheUmp!

        Believe it when i see it…that should be the sub-headline for the site 😉

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 8, 2016

        Ed – we’ll be in Phoenix the 9th – 12th. Not sure of our exact schedule yet. I haven’t been to the new Cubs stadium yet, nor out to Surprise. So I’d like to knock at least one of those off my list. Otherwise, I’ll probably choose based on pitching matchups and position battles.

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 7, 2016

        Every year (I mean EVERY year) some team says they’ll use 2-3 guys in the Closer role, mix and match, play the hot hand, etc. You know all the code words. Yet….when the games get real, Managers seem to almost always revert to the traditional assigned roles concept.

        Maybe (finally!) the Rox will be the Club that really implements the “team” approach to Pen assignments. I do think Motte and McGee can effectively Close in the correct situations. And…..if they can and do, it subsequently allows the Rox the flexibility to ease Ottavino back gradually, in lower leverage situations. I also believe Justin Miller will continue to emerge as a 7/8th inning force. Tyler Chatwood “could” really excel here as well (yet I fear the Rox will succumb to the SP need with Chatwood and finish his elbow once and for all). But…….the Pen (on paper – pardon the pun) has a chance to be above average if used correctly, and not over-used.

        Reply
    • Agbayani

      February 7, 2016

      63-99! That’s what one of the best sabert guys, Clay Davenport (claydavenport.com) now has for his Rockies projection. And yes, that would be the worst team in baseball — even the Phillies project at 65 wins. Ouch.

      Reality will likely be somewhere between the more optimistic projections I’ve seen — somewhere on the order of 74 wins — and Davenport’s floor. But really, amazing how this club has, by basically standing still, dropped even further back as everyone else improves.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 7, 2016

        I was trending downwards (below 62 wins before Christmas). Then our series of head-scratcher moves has me “up” to something in the 65-68 range now.

        I’ve also been looking at some of the early 2016 projections (notably ZiPS) and its brutal. I also now TOTALLY get why opposing Clubs weren’t offering what the Rox wanted for Cargo. In hindsight, I believe Bridich et al walked away from the Winter Meetings knowing the return for Cargo wouldn’t be what they (and certainly myself) had hoped and formulated Plan “B” (sign Cargo’s buddy Parra and trade either Blackmon or Dickerson).

        As we have noted previously, it’s not our money, and no damage as been done to the contention window timeline. So “Yay Team.” But please don’t cave and sign Yvonni Gallardo unless it’s a ridiculously Club friendly contract.

        Reply
    • Agbayani

      February 7, 2016

      EDIT: Davenport’s got some cleaning up of his data to do – in other charts he shows the Rox at 64 wins (kind of rounding error). Here’s the key underlying thing: for position players, projected WAR:

      Arenado 5.0 WAR
      Reyes 2.6

      That’s right, Jose Reyes — JOSE REYES — projects as our second best position player! (I guess that’s assuming he plays)

      Yes, I think Cargo will outperform his projected 1.5 WAR, which is dragged down by his injury plagued last couple seasons. But still …

      And on the pitching side, the highest projected WARs (starters and relievers):

      McGee 1.5
      Qualls 0.9

      Again, let that sink in for a moment. Right now, CHAD QUALLS, 37 year old journeyman reliever, projects as our second most valuable pitcher. Ugh.

      I will provide my “Planet Alignment Theory” sometime in spring, but this time it’ll involve how this club could potentially hit .500, not how they could make the playoffs, which is a totally unrealistic goal. But the other side of that equation is the Negative Alignment Theory — if things really go south (Cargo stays injury prone, Adames/Story play full time at SS, Chatwood/Ottavino don’t make it back to effectiveness, Bettis breaks down again — you get the story), this could be the worst Rockies team ever without it even being particularly close. Think 56 wins or so …

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 7, 2016

        Ag…..you’re the Owner of the PAT franchise.

        Can I buy a franchise and publish my PAT for us being 500 in 2017? (You’re wasting brain cells for 2016).

        Reply
    • Bob in WV

      February 7, 2016

      Well, now that that little Super Bowl distraction is behind us it’s time to start thinking baseball again. Last year I swore by the “I won’t be optimistic in the spring” mantra as I felt there was no way we had any chance to win the division or wild card. This year I am a bit optimistic as I feel we have reached rock bottom and have nowhere to go but up. I should clarify that my optimism is for having a better record than last year with younger players starting to assert themselves. I see no chance that the team will be remotely competitive for any post-season berths.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 8, 2016

        Bob – I like your thought process, as well as Ag’s (coming up with a PAT to be 500, instead of being a playoff team).

        For the last 4 years, I’ve been driving the Rockies criticism bandwagon….but even I believe we’ve hit rock bottom and a rebound is in sight. I have been saying for 2+ years that 2018 might be a 500 season. Now…..I’m leaning towards modifying my 2018 horizon to 2017. I think many fans (perhaps even a majority?) can come to grips with being bad if they know a plan (and more importantly, personnel) are in place to right the ship.

        Here’s where I am…….I don’t care what our 2016 record is if the following occurs:
        1. The majority of our key pitching prospects show significant growth.
        2. Dahl and McMahon continue to emerge as potential plus everyday players in the very near future.
        3. We have another good amateur draft and once again get all the kids signed and playing by the end of 2016.
        4. We learn to sell high as the trade deadline approaches.

        if these 4 things occur, I don’t care if we have 55 wins, 65 wins, or 70 wins in 16.

        Reply
    • Doc

      February 8, 2016

      I hope we get all four Carp, but I’m thinking we’ll be stuck with accomplishing #3 as a “rash of unforeseen injuries” sabotages #1 and #2 and #4, well, that would be a major breakthrough IMHO.

      Reply
    • jaredean

      February 8, 2016

      guys, i’m really sorry about the weird issues with the current site. I’ve been working VERY hard to get a new site up before first pitch of Spring Training and this current site is falling apart all around me. I hope to have a little “glimpse” for you guys soon as to the direction. It will be a completely updated look and feel with hopefully a still familiar sense to it.

      Stay tuned…my goal is to have it up next week – at least in Beta!

      Reply
      • Gary

        February 10, 2016

        Will follow you any where fearless leader.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          February 10, 2016

          Agree Gary……looking forward to the new site!

          Reply
          • jaredean

            February 10, 2016

            thanks guys – i’m quite annoyed that this site is breaking down – so glad to have the new one about ready!!!

            Reply
            • roxnsox

              February 11, 2016

              You rock. Thanks AGAIN:)

    • Agbayani

      February 9, 2016

      Prospects, Schmospects … on the Overrating of Prospects, Part 1:

      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-colorado-rockies/

      Really good evaluations, showing a lot of hard work put in. But … see this comment on baseballthinkfactory by the always worth reading Walt Davis:

      “…No one’s system is that good.

      …Just looked at his Cubs rankings and I’ve got to agree. He’s (the fangraphs author) got 10 players with a median projection of 50 or higher — which is supposedly an “average regular” or 2 WAR player. In the Cubs case, none of them project very highly — Torres is the best 60 (3 WAR) — but 5 are “above average” (2.5 WAR). The Rox come in with 13 “average regulars” or better.
      ….

      … Basically, I can believe that the Cubs top 10 can be expected to produce 40 WAR total within 6 years of service time (say, one at 15, 2 at 8, 3 at 3 and some spot duty). I can’t believe that they’re all expected to produce 8+ WAR (or 80+ WAR total).

      …I’d love to be wrong.

      ….As a reminder: in MLB last year, there were only 130 position players and 81 pitchers with 2+ WAR. Somebody else can run numbers for 4+ WAR over the last 2 or 6+ over the last 3. But we’re probably talking just 7 per team and we’re saying the Cubs and Rox have 23 players expected to be that in their systems right now?”

      -And Davis also points out that this is a problem with all prospect ratings. It’s kind of a Lake Woebegon effect for minor league system evaluations.

      Now, that doesn’t negate the fact that the Rockies have developed a strong minor league system. It doesn’t negate the fact that relative to other MLB systems it has more depth (and maybe more future big league plus performers?) than most other systems. But if the author “can’t see … how Trevor Story can be thought of as anything less than a major league starting SS” and Story is our TENTH best prospect, well, that’s just an insanely good system, the likes of which I’ve never seen before. So a good dose of skepticism is in order when looking at these prospect evaluations …

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 9, 2016

        Ag – this gets me back to one of my longtime pet peeves…..I don’t like the concept of ranking farm systems based of depth.

        Now, don’t get me wrong. There’s nothing wrong with depth. In fact, it’s a great thing. But I’ve always maintained that the most accurate way to look at farm systems is by the number of truly elite prospects (I use the term “difference makers”) are in the system. In my mind we have two, maybe (probably) three that fit this category:

        Rodgers
        McMahon
        Hoffman (he’s the maybe probably)

        Note that I define “difference maker” as future legit All Star. I see David Dahl as Adam Eaton-esque. This is a (very) good thing, but it’s not a legit future all star. I see Jon Gray as solid #3 starter, but not a legit future All-Star. I see all sort of role players and even everyday contributors. This is GREAT. But I tend to agree with the baseball think factory in general.

        One (of the many) things we need to come to grips with is trading some of this farm depths for needs. We did this with Padlo in the recent Dickerson deal. We have the depth to do more of this type maneuvering.

        Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      February 10, 2016

      I bought the just released Baseball Prospect book. Nice info on prospects and lists all kinds of sabermetric stats. PECOTA projections as well. This book will come in handy when it comes to trade rumors (or actual trades) and I can read up on the unheard-of names.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 10, 2016

        RMH – I subscribed to BP for years. Great publication. I have to say that I found the PECOTA projection system (disclosure – I haven’t looked at that system in the last couple of years) had a hard time handling players coming back from injuries. But….the stories in the publication were typically excellent.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      February 10, 2016

      The sound you just heard was me exhaling……as it appears that we’ve dodged the Yvonni Gallardo bullet. Thank you Orioles!

      I have to say….we’re moving down the “head scratching” list. Less than a week after the Snakes traded for Jean Segura (while they have young, cost controlled, excellent defensive MIers Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed), the Orioles are on the verge of signing Gallardo and may apply the “if we lose the 14th draft pick as compensation, we might as well lose the 29th draft pick as well” and sign Dexter Fowler. Both of these above mentioned moves (assuming the Orioles situation plays out like this) make much less sense than Dickerson for McGee and a solid Farm SPer.

      Conversely, I think the White Sox taking a chance on Mat Latos for 3M is a great move.

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      February 11, 2016

      Random thoughts as the warm spell has me thinking spring training:

      1. Corey Dickerson = Seth Smith. While I hated that Smith trade, and didn’t like the Dickerson trade, surely the return for Dickerson is better than the return for Smith. Anyone remember Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman? By the way, Seth Smith has had a nice little productive career.

      2. Where’s Justin Morneau? Still unsigned. Cheapo 1 -year deal for him paired with Mark Reynolds in a platoon wouldn’t be so horrible I guess. Ahh, low expectations…

      3. Thank goodness no Gallardo. The Orioles now are starting to remind me of the Rockies c. 2012. The window of opportunity is closing and they are desperately trying to keep it open a crack. This will not end well.

      4. Which brings me to Dexter Fowler. I have to assume teams with their advanced defensive stats have concluded he’s a poor defensive center fielder. Otherwise, why the total lack of interest? Maybe it’s the draft pick? Really, he’s pretty ok! Didn’t the Cubs do really well with him in CF?

      5. Ryan McMahon vs Ian Stewart as 19 year olds: Stewart well ahead. As 20 year olds: McMahon passed him. I hope this means something good.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 11, 2016

        Boy…..the Ian Stewart vs Ryan McMahon comparison gets (I think…..solely my opinion based only on anecdotal evidence) into comparing fairly similar physical specimens with what appears to be entirely different brains. I’ll leave it at that.

        Reply
      • Bob in WV

        February 15, 2016

        I sure can’t comment on anything to do with Ian Stewart. I once noted that his first year stats were much better than Mike Schmidt’s. Very humbling to my baseball knowledge ego.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      February 11, 2016

      I’m always excited for Spring Training. I cherry pick games based on scheduled pitchers, young players/prospects scheduled to play, etc. I’m even on a mission to visit all the Parks in Phoenix. So while being excited about ST for 2016 in general……..my excitement hasn’t been Rockies based, until the NRIs were announced today. Lots of expected names on the list (Dahl for example). But I’m super-excited that Ryan McMahon and Dom Nunez made the list. This will be fun!

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      February 12, 2016

      NRI announced:

      Left-handed pitchers (5)

      Yohan Flande
      Kyle Freeland
      Jason Gurka
      Sam Moll
      Harrison Musgrave

      Right-handed pitchers (8)

      Matt Carasiti
      Shane Carle
      Simon Castro
      Gonzalez Germen
      Nelson Gonzalez
      Jeff Hoffman
      Brock Huntzinger
      Brian Schlitter

      Catcher (4)

      Ryan Casteel
      Dom Nunez
      Will Swanner
      Jackson Williams

      Outfielders (5)

      Noel Cuevas
      David Dahl
      Rosell Herrera
      Jordan Patterson
      Michael Tauchman

      Infielders (2)

      Ryan McMahon
      Kyle Parker

      I’m more focused on pitchers than offense mostly because our “Lift Factor” for team offense looks to be headed to the worst in franchise’s history. (“Lift Factor” is the opposite of “Drag Factor” which measures how much lift to the offense the individual hitters can contribute.) So this year I’m taking the attitude that I will focus on watching the pitchers and screw the offense as we have a ton of pitchers moving up the pipeline towards Coors Field. And we can’t be any worse than last year. I’d rather see 100 3-2 losses than 8-4 losses. Nothing more frustrating to me than watching other team jump out ahead in the first inning or two and/or watching the guaranteed bullpen meltdowns. (Remember Fowler’s GW HR off Hawkins???? or the granny off Betty????)

      With that said, I’m looking forward to seeing Harrison Musgrave, Sam Moll, Kyle Freeland, Shane Carle, and Jeff Hoffman in Scottsdale. And I’d like to see how well Dom Nunez can control the bases as well as handle the pitching staff.

      It looks like Kyle Parker and Rosell Herrera will be given their last chance to prove why they should be more than organizational fillers.

      Reply
      • Bob K.

        February 12, 2016

        ” looks like Kyle Anderson and Rosell Herrera will be given their last chance to prove why they should be more than organizational fillers.”

        I assume you mean Kyle Parker. I have no idea who Kyle Anderson would be.

        Reply
    • Agbayani

      February 14, 2016

      Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list:

      37. Jon Gray
      39. David Dahl
      40. Brendan Rogers
      43. Ryan McMahon
      68. Jeff Hoffman
      97. Tom Murphy

      This kind of tracks Carp’s idea of depth but not (yet) any prospects considered truly “elite.”

      But a quick note on these lists. The Rockies-only ranking on Baseball America goes like this:

      Gray
      Dahl
      Rogers
      Hoffman
      McMahon
      Freeland
      Murphy

      So Hoffman is a better prospect than McMahon on one list, a worse prospect on the other list … I imagine this is because the team-only list is the opinion of one writer, the Top 100 list is a consensus opinion. Whatever, they’re all good prospects.

      An additional note on Carp’s “depth vs. elites” theory: remember the mid-2000s Rockies!
      The 2007 success was, in retrospect, kind of flukey, but look at who the prospects in our system were following the 2003 season. It was guys like:

      Matt Holliday
      Brad Hawpe
      Garrett Atkins
      Clint Barmes
      Ryan Spilborghs
      Ian Stewart
      Jeff Baker
      Jeff Francis (Aaron Cook had just graduated to the big league team, but wasn’t very good)
      Ubaldo Jimenez
      Franklin Morales (signed, but not even in Rookie ball yet)

      And then in the summer of 2004, we added:

      Chris Iannetta
      Manny Corpas

      It wasn’t until the draft of 2005 that we added Tulo …

      Was there a truly “elite” prospect among that bunch? Here are the Rockies on BA’s 2004 (the post-2003 season) Top 100 list:

      24. Chin-Hui Tsao
      57. Ian Stewart
      93. Jeff Francis
      94. Jayson Nix

      The next list (2005) saw Ian Stewart (!) move into the elite ranks:

      4. Ian Stewart
      23. Jeff Francis
      26. Chris Nelson (!)
      82. Ubaldo Jimenez

      And the previous year (2003) included Aaron Cook at 41, and Chin-Hui Tsao at # 93.

      So this is a very long-winded way of saying “depth matters” — it’s great to have an elite prospect or two (we got those later on with Stewart, who ultimately bombed, and Tulo, who didn’t, but who never ranked higher than 15th on BA’s lists), but you need to develop a lot of contributors at a lot of positions. That includes solid starting pitchers (Cook, Francis), league-average starters at other positions (Atkins, Hawpe, Iannetta), useful role players (Spilborghs, Barmes), and hope that one or more of those B-type prospects (Ubaldo) emerges as an elite player.

      So while I’d like to see one or more of our 6 “Top 100” prospects move into that “elite” range, I’m feeling pretty good about the major league pipeline in general.

      Of course, if this is 2004 all over again, we’ll have to be patient and make it through 3 more crappy years …

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 15, 2016

        Very nice. I agree Ag.

        There’s still plenty of room to make the Farm better……hence my desire to hold onto the 38th overall pick this year. Also one side note……..Brendan Rodgers has slid down some of these lists a bit after a bit of a lethargic showing in GJ and some winter workout situations. I’ve even seen the ubiquitous word “attitude” creep into some descriptors. I’d be careful to put too much stock (pro or con) in the HS kids performances during the first summer/fall after they’re drafted. It’s a long year for an 18 year old. In fact, I read somewhere that the Cardinals do not attempt to teach HS kids anything that first post-HS summer. They just let them play and get used to the surroundings. Real instruction and mechanical tweeks don’t begin until the winter.

        Another interesting note regarding depth – I think (someone please correct if I’m wrong), we may be facing a bit of a potential Rule 5 hit next December. For the first time in a long time, we’ll have multiple guys that will eligible AND desirable (we’ve always had plenty of eligible guys, but no one wanted them). So this traffic jam may impact the way we look at trades as the summer deadline approaches. For example, if offering Cargo alone doesn’t get the player targeted, adding one or two of these Rule 5 eligible (and desirable) candidates as a sweetener can be done without any real impact to us (we may well lose the player anyway). Something to monitor as July approaches.

        Reply
        • roxnsox

          February 16, 2016

          The dreaded “attitude” word about a kid! Hope it’s not true, or at least is just his tender age showing itself in one of the negative ways that it might in the circumstances. I like the Cardinals’ approach (I think we all respect that organization).

          Also, re: Ag’s post above, I was surprised Holliday was never an elite prospect. I guess he was a dark horse or a late bloomer, or maybe to be “elite” you have to play defense? LOL. And Ian Stewart, well, we all know how THAT turned out after such eager anticipation…and anticipation…and anticipation… This discussion kind of goes to show the value of projected rankings and outcomes, period. (Does it work better in other sports? I’m asking.)

          Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 15, 2016

        Cut and paste from the Saunders article:

        “The study found that only 65 percent returned to pitching at a major-league level (compared with 87 percent after one surgery) and that on average they lasted three years or fewer at the big-league level. What’s more, the innings pitched dropped nearly in half when the player did return. Also, walks jumped from 4.02 to 4.79 for every nine innings pitch.”

        I’ve been screaming this at the top of my lungs for years. DO NOT PUT 2nd TJ PITCHERS IN A SP ROLE!!!!! The outcome will not be good.

        Chatwood throws gas and has command. As a RP managed correctly, he can throw the fast ball and change up, spare his elbow the slider induced stress, and be useful for years to come. As a SP, he needs (and will use) the slider frequently. Just say NO to SP.

        Reply
        • Agbayani

          February 15, 2016

          Chatwood: Carp, I agree … as you’ve pointed out, his chances for post-2nd TJ success are far greater as a reliever. But … he really doesn’t add much value as a reliever. I guess it’s possible that he could really take to the bullpen role and with a 2-pitch mix see the K rate go up, kind of the Ottavino model. But that wasn’t the case when he worked out of the bullpen before (although that was inconsistent). So he’d probably be more Taylor Buchholz (remember him?) than Ottavino as a reliever. His value so far has come from what was — for about a year — an unusual ability to induce groundballs. And despite what was always advertised as a great curve, he never K’d many.

          So I guess what I’m saying is this: moving Chatwood to the pen would no doubt be good for Chatwood, but I don’t see it as being particularly a good idea for the Rockies, who desperately need starters, and if Chatwood is even 90% of what he was in 2013 as a starter, guess what … he’s our Ace (which sadly says more about his competition than about him). He’s also a free agent after 2017, so if I’m Bridich, I”m probably inclined to roll the dice and try to maximize value for these 2 seasons, Chatwood’s 2018 and beyond status be damned … hey, it’s a dog eat dog world out there!

          Reply
          • sdcarp

            February 15, 2016

            It’s funny – I’m trying to protect Chatwood, but I’m willing to bet if you ask him, he says “I want to be a SP!”

            Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        February 15, 2016

        Guess you guys skipped over the part were it says that he was so far removed from the first TJ the bone almost completely healed and the doctor says it is almost as good as the first TJ.

        I choose to be optimistic…..

        Reply
    • Bob K.

      February 15, 2016

      Chris Nelson is back on a minor league contract.

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      February 15, 2016

      CHRIS NELSON!! Do we need depth at 2B or 3B????? Adames, Descalso, Story, Wall, McMahon, Nevin….

      Waste of money even though he’s in the minors….

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      February 16, 2016

      Two fantastic articles regarding rating Farm Systems. The first is presented by Jeff Zimmerman. This is my preference because it attempts to account for elite Prospects (I call them “Difference Makers”):

      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-farm-systems-ranked-by-surplus-war/

      The second – presented by Chris Mitchell:

      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-farm-system-rankings/

      It’s stunning to me how quickly, and quietly, Milwaukee has rebuilt their system. Here’s the thing – they’re still sitting on Jonathan LuCroy who they will no doubt trade for a premium return. So it’s only going to get stronger in the short term. The Brew Crew will be one of my Spring Training visits for sure.

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      February 17, 2016

      roxnsox, excellent question on Matt Holliday. I looked up his prospect ratings.

      – 7th round pick out of high school
      – made an immediate impression in Rookie League ball as an 18 year old, then put up pretty ordinary numbers in the minors till he was called up
      – NEVER made a Baseball America Top 100 list

      As for fielding, if I remember correctly he was a 3rd baseman who got moved to LF because old football injuries caused him throwing problems.

      Oh, and by the way Mike Trout was # 88 on the BA list in 2010 …

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      February 17, 2016

      Ian Desmond

      I posted this wacky thought on Purple Row:

      Disclaimer #1 – personally, I’m in favor of holding the 38th pick

      Disclaimer #2 – I’m going to use very broad numbers for the sake of the “discussion.” I realize they’re not exactly correct.

      Jose Reyes is owed very roughly 44M over the next 2 years. That’s 136K per game. Let’s say his DV suspension is 75 games (it’s got to be more than the first offence PED suspension, right?). So that’s 10M+ saved if we don’t pay him for those 75 games (FWIW – I’m not sure I believe this, but this is what Rosenthal seems to imply). Then we release him (IMO Reyes never plays a game in a Rockies uniform again anyway). Anyone living in reality will more or less agree that had we flipped him late last season we would have eaten 75% of his salary. So………even though we’ve gotten here via a very unfortunate chain of events, we may be in about the same place that we would have been anyway minus a low level Prospect.

      Take the +/- 10M and use it (an obviously some more) to “invest” in Desmond semi long-term with this thought – he plays primarily SS in 2016, then transitions to 1B in 2017/18. They guy has hit 88 HR’s in the last 4 years. 306 RBI’s in the last 4 years.

      There you have it – crazy thought of the day.

      Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        February 17, 2016

        Ian Desmond’s numbers are in a free fall the last three-four years. I’d rather take Adames/Descalso/Ynoa/DJLM (remember he has played a little ss) and keep the #38 pick.

        Projections by the various sabermetrics sources are not very kind to Desmond.

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 17, 2016

        I sort of like this deal. If he plays well again, I can see him being attractive at the deadline with a short-term, reasonable contract like this.

        Reply
    • Agbayani

      February 18, 2016

      Wolters sounds a little Jordan Pacheco-y to me …

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 20, 2016

        Pacheco-y’s calling card (not that it was a strong card) was offense. Sounds as though Wolters’s card may be defense.

        Reply
    • roxnsox

      February 19, 2016

      Hey guys (and girls), I’m thinking I might need another team(s) to watch this year if/when the Rockies are too depressing. (Yes, as a fan since they were but a twinkle in the eyes of the region’s baseball lovers, I reserve the right to speak in that manner. Ha!) I don’t know how the Red Sox are supposed to do, but I’ll always give them some attention. (I’m ducking out of the way as some of you throw things.) Also, I simply enjoy knowing more teams and players.

      I haven’t had MLB Extra Innings for a couple of years but am considering it again. Question for you who use MLB.TV: Does this function on a television? (Internet-connected via my BluRay player). It’s a lot cheaper. I will NOT watch games on a phone or computer so never mind that. What are the blackout policies? With Extra Innings I can watch anything except the Rockies’ opponent’s home announcers. Thanks for any info.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 19, 2016

        I can’t help with the extra innings question. In fact, I’m equally interested to read some info from others.

        Regarding other teams, I’m a Rockies fan first, but also a fan of baseball in general. In years that the Rox are out of the race early (the last 5 for example!) I almost always find myself adopting another team short term. I’m a sucker for the small market, lower payroll teams that are well put together/managed. The Rays, A’s, and Twins fit that profile from time-to-time. We’ll see what this year brings.

        Reply
      • Bob in WV

        February 21, 2016

        Check this out this webpage:

        http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/subscriptions/index.jsp?content=products&c_id=mlb

        Click on your device or manufacturer and check the list of supported gear. Looks like many newer devices include the mlb.tv app and will let you stream your subscription directly to your TV without a computer.

        In my case, my Blu-Ray player and TV are both a year or two too old and cannot access my subscription. I have to connect my laptop by HDMI cable to view on my big screen.

        Hope this helps…but don’t you dare give up on our Rox. Some day we will get to the show again, and when we do this currently painful journey will provide us with more appreciation than any Yankee fan could ever know.

        Reply
      • jaredean

        February 21, 2016

        I’ve been a very happy MLBtv user for many years. It honestly is very nice to be able to use it with my phone, ipad, computer and TV to catch games. They are really the best service for any sport out there, bar none.

        There area bunch of changes coming with the class action lawsuit and blackouts. The dust hasn’t quite settled, but it looks like you might have a little bit more flexibility when watching your out of market team in your current market. Currently it is only 15 team so far, but it is a step in the right direction…

        As far as using your BlueRay, it depends on if you have MLBtv as an option. If you don’t you can very easily get an older generation Apple TV, Amazon FireStick (cheap), ChromeCast (cheap) or Roku Streaming stick. All are great options.

        Reply
    • JulieG

      February 19, 2016

      I have followed the Cubbies for along time, since the Braves moved to Atlanta. The Rockies are my team, but I am always checking up on the Cubs.

      Reply
      • Gary

        February 19, 2016

        Could finally be the year!

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 20, 2016

        The only thing the Cubs lack is an elite Bullpen. But they can work on that as the season progress. Couple this with what I believe will be some regression from the Cards and Pirates and they’re in good shape in the Central. From there…..it’s a matter of getting hot for the playoffs.

        Reply
      • Bob in WV

        February 21, 2016

        Is this the same media that said Trump would be long gone by now? I certainly am not making a political statement, just pointing out how wrong the media can be. Maybe a better example is the widespread predictions that the Steelers, Patriots, and most certainly the Panthers would end the Broncos season.

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 23, 2016

        Thanks Bob. I read this when it came out. I’m fascinated by stuff like this. I like this quote:

        “Altitude of Home Park: Despite the considerable effort it took to match up each player’s home park with their park’s altitude, this attribute appears to have no effect on TJS. One might suspect that environmental issues impact the prevalence of certain injuries, but we can cross off altitude for now.”

        Sadly – last year in our 2015 Rockies prediction thread, I predicted Otto’s TJ surgery. My methodology wasn’t nearly as high tech as this…..just that he threw hard, and threw lots of screw balls. Double sadly, if Chatwood is used as a SP, I will predict the same thing for him by the end of 16.

        Reply
    • ProgMatinee

      February 23, 2016

      The Rockies are in crappy situation.

      They have to pay the guy.
      He can’t practice.

      As awful as it is to say it, as a Rockies fan our best hope is he’s found guilty.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 23, 2016

        Prog – as I understand this (and I could be wrong!) players don’t get paid during Spring Training. Then, once the official suspension begins, the Rox are not on the hook for paying him while suspended.

        Last year, as we approached the waiver deadline (remember, Reyes easily passed through waivers), he was owed about +/- 48M. I thought we’d be really lucky to get a receiving team take 10M of his salary. So in my opinion, we were going to be on the hook for about 38M. Now fast forward to today. Let’s say he’s suspended 60 games (I continue to maintain the suspension has to be greater than the 50 game first offence for PEDs). That’s roughly 7-8M. So…………..if he’s suspended 60 games or more we come out almost “even” (minus a low level Prospect maybe) in a warped sort of way (I’ll understand if you don’t agree with my logic!).

        Long story short – I’ll be shocked if he ever wears a Rockies uniform again.

        Reply
    • Bob K.

      February 24, 2016

      My understanding is that normally the players get paid 6 months out of the year. However players that make a lot of money often have their payments spread over all 12 months. It was said that Jose Reyes is one of the players that gets paid every month so he will get paid during spring training.

      Reply
      • ProgMatinee

        February 24, 2016

        Have to admit I can’t stomach the thought enough to read a full article. All the headlines I’ve read say its a “paid” suspension so I only assumed that it was as you described.

        Reply
    • Jeem

      February 25, 2016

      Just back from the Sunshine State where word is the Marlins have a new manager, Don Mattingly, and hitting coach, Barry Bonds, and may not wear facial hair. Their fans, all 54 of them, are squirming with anticipation!

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      February 25, 2016

      Dexter Fowler thought to have a 3 year $33MM deal in place with the Orioles signs with the Cubs on a one year deal for $8MM plus a $9MM option year with a $5MM buyout.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 25, 2016

        In my opinion, the Orioles are following the same path the Angels have followed. A bunch of weird trades and FA signings mostly at the expense of their Farm Systems. I think both are headed for a train wrecks in the near future…..they may eek out good seasons this year….but they’ll both unravel by 17 or 18.

        Reply
      • ProgMatinee

        February 26, 2016

        Very good player for the Rockies. Shame he was only our set up man in 2009 rather than the closer because I think that series against Philly might have ended differently.

        Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        February 26, 2016

        Read that article; I already thought of that as a possibility since we signed Parra. I’m already waving the white flag on the offensive side of the ball and will be focused on pitching as a fan as we have several prospects getting close to the majors and they are upgrades over scrap heap signings.

        For this year, I don’t care if we average one run a game, but I consider it a very successful season if we can keep the rotation ERA around 4.30 & 6 IP/game while bullpen go around 3.25 ERA. I was reading the Baseball Prospectus book about TB pitching philosophy. That is exactly the template the Rox should copy – shuffle BP arms back n forth between AAA and MLB to keep them fresh and pull starters after 2 times thru or maybe three depending on how SPs pitch. If the Rox do that, that’s where Christian Bergman and Chris Rusin become valuable in the long relief roles.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          February 26, 2016

          For the life of me, I’m not sure why we didn’t chase Austin Jackson (maybe we did, maybe there’s more to the story) harder. Right handed. Can play CF. Solid defender. Cheaper. Shorter contract.

          Reply
    • sdcarp

      February 27, 2016

      Nick Groke reporting via Twitter David Hale pulled a hammy today. Not good for a borderline guy in what’s become a crowded bullpen competition.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      February 28, 2016

      Ian Desmond to the Rangers for 1 year. They give up the 19th pick for 1 year. They must really like their chances this year (the AL West is weak on paper).

      I read an interesting article from one of the routine FanGraphs contribututers (sorry – no link) suggesting one simple way to improve the QO/CP dilemma is tweaking the rule such that if the FA ends up signing a 1 year deal with another team under the original QO, the receiving team does NOT lose the pick.

      Also, more evidence that teams don’t mind shelling out $$$$ if it’s for short term. I still maintain Cargo has value…..and if plays reasonably well and stays on the field, it will increase as his contract gets shorter.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      February 28, 2016

      Really, really, really good news…..from RotoWorld:

      “Rockies infield prospect Ryan McMahon will play first base this spring.

      The club’s top corner infield prospect is blocked at third base by Nolan Arenado, so a move across the diamond makes sense. McMahon has only played third base in his first 317 games at the professional level, but a move to first shouldn’t be difficult. He’s slated to start 2015 at Double-A Hartford. “He’s still a third baseman,” Rockies assistant general manager Zach Wilson said. “We’re just adding a position, not taking one away. But the intent is to have him play first base as we go into the season.” ”

      I listed McMahan as my Rockies #3 Prospect in the Purple Row 2016 voting. I have to say, a move to 1st base (which he should handle defensively EASILY) is akin to the parting of the Red Sea and now he’s got an open express toll ride to Denver. If I were to vote now – I might move him to #1 simply because of his unobstructed path, our need at the position, and the fact that he’s posted OBPs of 402, 352, and 372 while posting OPS’s in the 900 range.

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      February 29, 2016

      Tulo can’t get over the trade just yet….Now NoDo is not happy with Tulo’s comments as printed in today’s USA Today’s article. I’m starting to admire NoDo more and more. First he dumped Bor-ass as his agent and now he’s standing up for the Rockies even though he has always been friends with Tulo.
      http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2016/02/29/21489/21489/

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        February 29, 2016

        Tulo is a dork. I new it from the time I heard the Miley Cyrus walk-up song (all snark intended)!

        I like the reference to “they way a Spring Training facility should be” when referencing the Jays. By my count, Tulo’s first Spring with the Rox was probably 2006 at Hi Corbett. Hi Corbett was not a bad place……..in fact, I quite enjoyed my one ST visit there. I’m willing to bet it’s significantly better than the Dunedin Jay’s facility (although I’ve never been there). What does he know about bad facilities???? He’s now on a playoff contender. Why is he still crying?

        What a dork……oh, I already said that!

        Reply
      • Jeem

        March 1, 2016

        What Tulo meant to say: “Jesus, this place is primitive!”

        Reply
        • roxnsox

          March 1, 2016

          Good Lord, I miss my country club training facility!

          Reply
    • sdcarp

      February 29, 2016

      Ideas for topics on new website:

      2016 ST Game thread
      2016 Predictions
      Link to 2015 Predictions
      Walk-up Song Nominees

      Reply
      • jaredean

        March 1, 2016

        oooohhh…i like the direction this is going!

        i’m working hard to bring the new site to the masses, but sadly it took a big step backwards. The person i hired to help me make the transition did it incorrectly. I have the site look pretty cool, but it isn’t functioning like it should. I needed to hire a new person to fix the issues and he said it will take some time. 🙁

        So i had the new person fix the front of this site (that the old person broke) and we will need to use this for at least another week. I’m really working hard to unveil it before the season starts…

        Reply
    • Gary

      March 1, 2016

      Everyone’s favorite Drew Stubbs signs minor league deal with the Rangers.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        March 3, 2016

        Ryu is dinged up as well.

        But before you celebrate, this may just force them to bring up Julio Urias (although they’ll of course deny it) earlier than anticipated. And that’s not good for the NL West. He’s (much) better than Ryu or Anderson.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      March 3, 2016

      Random ST thoughts after 2 games. First, I don’t look at results per se…..I look more at athleticism.

      Matzek couldn’t find the zone. What concerns me more is that he barely hit 90. His day as a baseball player are nearly done.

      Dahl is a grown man now!

      DJ also took his fitness seriously this offseason.

      Butler struggled in theory, but hit 96-98. I like that. I’ve not been a believer. But those numbers turned my head.

      Justin Miller is legit.

      Tapia continues on the path of being a poor man’s Vlad Guerrero (yes – I said that).

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      March 4, 2016

      Christian Friedrich signs Minor League deal with spring training invite with the Padres.

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      March 4, 2016

      carp (and others in AZ), keep those spring training reports coming! I’m really high on Dahl, just on my going-against-stats grain (for me) of “pure talent usually comes through.” Tapia is an interesting one — I saw a tiny bit of him last spring (not enough to say anything except “he’s really skinny”) — free swinging bad ball hitters usually don’t make it unless they have power, which he doesn’t … yet.

      I’ll give Matzek another chance simply because (unlike most Steve Blass disease guys) he’s made it back once already … poor velocity early isn’t that concerning to me. Although the opposite — Butler lighting up the radar gun — is a good sign since among all the problems he’s had the last couple years, one of the most troubling is poor command + a dropoff in velocity.

      Reply
    • ProgMatinee

      March 5, 2016

      Is Raburn essentially a fallback if Reynolds and/or Barnes fail?

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        March 5, 2016

        Perhaps a Barnes fallback.

        Perhaps insurance in case Cargo is traded.

        Jairo Diaz and these two awful words – “Elbow Discomfort.”

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      March 6, 2016

      Another head scratcher:

      http://m.rockies.mlb.com/news/article/166311742/rockies-prospect-miguel-castro-throws

      Miguel Castro to remain a Relief Pitcher.

      I don’t have a problem with this (from the Castro side of the equation). For the life of me I don’t understand why sometimes RPers are afterthoughts (to some Clubs). Of course with teams like the Yankees assembling Betances, Miller, and Chapman…..it’s not fair to say everyone undervalues them. I do have a problem with this from the BSCS side of the equation. Why sign Chad Qualls? If Castro stays a RPer, he’s really major league ready. At least that’s what the AL East winners thought last season. Couple him with Estevez and let them fling it from the right side. 2016 could be a perfect major league introduction/learning experience for both.

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      March 6, 2016

      Castro – it is a headscratcher since he just turned 21 in December and he has a couple options left. I wonder if it’s a coincidence that Jairo Diaz goes down the day before they announce this … there’s still an undercurrent of desperation in the Rockies that is keeping them from saying “we’re rebuilding.” Carp, as you’ve pointed out before, Castro may ultimately profile as a reliever, but again, what’s the rush? I’d be inclined to give him at least a good half season – probably a whole season – at AA as a starter to see what he can do with it.

      Raburn – I’ve seen a couple commenters on other forums use the term “lefty killer” for him, which is a bit of an exaggeration … “useful player vs. LH pitchers” is more like it. At this stage of his career his pretty much a corner OF only (maybe 1B, but we’ve got – for whatever reason – Mark Reynolds occupying that role), so it’s hard to see the roster spot for him and Brandon Barnes (who for whatever even more unfathomable reason Bridich decided to re-sign). Raburn to play 1B/corner OF against lefties + some other backup CF who can cover ground and add some team speed (Carp, you mentioned Austin Jackson) would have made sense. This? Well, again, Rockies Mysterious Roster Construction, 2016 ed., Chapter 12.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        March 6, 2016

        Getting into “solely my opinion” territory – so take it for what it’s worth:

        1. Bridich generally knows what to do.
        2. Monfort is meddling. Wants to win now. Doesn’t understand it’s not possible.
        3. So a warped compromise is being implemented. Bridich is still making moves with the future in mind while simultaneously flushing money down the toilet to go from maybe 62 wins to maybe 68 wins this year.
        4. I think not moving Cargo is the result of both factions of the BSCS over-valuing him.
        5. But when Bridich makes one of “his” moves (meaning the future moves) – they appear fairly shrewd (the Marquez part of the Dickerson trade for example).
        6. The Parra/Qualls/Motte type moves are Monfart saying I’ve got “X” to spend, let’s win as many as we can this year.

        So this has me scratching my head. It’s a tightrope walk. I don’t think the future has been damaged (yet)…..but it could be.

        Regarding Castro…..I have that Earl Weaver mindset that if they’re good, bring them up and pitch them out of the Pen for awhile. I think iy would have helped Jon Gray last season. So even if Castro pitches out of the Pen this year…..I wouldn’t necessarily rule out a role change I the future.

        Conspiracy Theory of the Day – Cargo to the CWS for Spencer Adams. This would explain Raburn and Castro.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      March 6, 2016

      Hoffman/Dahl/Tapia!

      My Spring Training agenda is mostly set. Have it worked out to see 7 teams in 4 days. 4 separate Ball Parks. Reds/Rangers/Dodgers/A’s/Indians/Brewers/Rockies (twice). Aiming for the Clubs with good Farms. Will report back…..without purple tinted glasses,

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      March 6, 2016

      Sometimes logical things DO happen:

      Austin Jackson to CWS for 1 year, 5M.

      That will end Cargo to CWS rumors (many started by me!). The WS get a solid defensive CFer for a short and cheap commitment. That’s better than assuming Cargo’s 37M and giving up a top Prospect. This is part of the reason I think we over-value our players sometimes. Teams have multiple options. Here are the WS options:

      A. Jackson – 1 year, 5M.
      B. Trade top Prospect to CO for Cargo and take on his salary.
      C. Trade solid Prospect to Cincy for Jay Bruce (less production, but less salary).

      It’s a no-brainer. We should be able to process this and set our asking price accordingly.

      We gave Parra 3 years, 27.5M. Did I mention…..Jackson bats from the right side?

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      March 6, 2016

      Tapia, Dahl, Hoffman, Freeland – from the box score, it looks like they were all impressive today.

      Looking at the roster, it seems to me that there’d have to be a big upset or injury to change what looks like the opening day roster:

      Hundley, Murphy

      Paulsen, Reynolds (platoon I hope)
      LeMahieu/Descalso
      Story OR Adames (I hope Story goes north as the starter)
      Arenado

      Parra/Raburn (again, a platoon I hope)
      Blackmon/Barnes
      Cargo

      That allows for 12 pitchers. Of course, it leaves them a bit thin on the IF, but if someone gets hurt you can easily call up an Adames type. Or they could go north with 11 pitchers with early season off days.

      That is a very, very weak bench, so until others (Dahl? Tapia?) are ready they better pray for good health.

      Pitching is a bit more open, but I’ve got to think it’ll go:

      DLR
      Bettis
      Gray
      Chatwood
      Lyles

      Which, if everyone’s healthy (a big if), is surprisingly mediocre and actually has some upside, mostly in the form of Gray and Lyles.

      Bullpen will be:

      McGee (has he seen any action yet?)
      Motte
      Qualls
      Logan
      Miller

      And 1 or 2 of Rusin, Oberg, Flande, M Castro.

      Not much “who’ll make the team” drama. The only surprises I could see: Dahl really impresses, and Cargo (Blackmon?) is therefore traded sooner rather than later.

      Reply
      • Bob K.

        March 6, 2016

        Adames will either make the 25 man roster or he will be DFAed since he is out of options. The same applies for Chatwood, Miller and Rusin.

        Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        March 6, 2016

        I think Tom Murphy starts the season at AAA cuz he’ll be more happy playing everyday until an injury happens or Hundley leaves after 2016 season. Don’t forget Murphy will have to earn his job everyday with Dom Nunez moving rapidly thru the farm system. So I predict it will be Doug Garneau as the backup catcher this year. He’ll be more than happy to have this once-in-a-lifetime chance to be a major leaguer this year with his low ceiling and the Rox going nowhere this year.

        Reply

Leave a Comment

(required)

(required)