ROX HOT STOVE 2017 – VOLUME I

Ladies and Gentlemen – welcome to the most significant, relevant, and hence exciting Hot Stove season for the Rox in recent memory. Let’s do a quick review:

1. Were coming off a “successful” (based on realistic expectations) season. 75 wins. Up from 68 in 2015. And it’s not a stretch to say if Trevor Story doesn’t suffer a season ending injury, we would have pushed a 500 season (81 wins) even with a miserable bullpen.
2. Young, talented, deep starting pitching.
3. Bonafide stars – Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Grey, Dahl….with DJ not missing by much.
4. A real, experienced, credible Manager – thank you Bud Black.
5. A young, smart, talented GM.
6. Real signs that Montfort is willing to be more “hands off” with day-to-day baseball operations moving forward.
7. Stated willingness to increase payroll.

Do I have your attention?????

What’s ahead?

A. New Bench, Batting, and Base coaches.
B. New CBA. Their are whispers of two items that I believe can potentially benefit the Rockies a tad bit more than other teams – move to 154 games and 26 man rosters. There are also whispers that the CBA may be complete by the end of this month.
C. Need to “fix” the bullpen.
D. Solve 1st base.
E. Continued integration of young players into the mix.

I propose we post all Hot Stove related comments/ideas/links/thoughts here until the thread gets too long, then we can start Volume II if necessary.

I’m interested to hear everyone’s ideas regarding the BP, 1st base, potential coaches, etc. Don’t be shy. 2017 is destined to be exciting!

Here’s a link to the important offseason dates:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2016-17-mlb-offseason-free-agency-winter-meetings-other-important-dates/

sdcarp

146 Comments

    • sdcarp

      November 10, 2016

      As you no doubt know, I always having crazy trade ideas floating around in my head – and I’m not shy about sharing. Another crazy idea I have is that our bullpen problem isn’t as hard to fix as our 1B problem.

      Here’s what I think…..if we can add one guy at the back of the Pen equal to or better than Otto, then we’ll improve to at least a mid-pack bullpen. My thought process is as follows:

      1. Bud Black will do a better job Managing the Pen.
      2. Estevez, Castro, and Carasiti are all upper tier talents. They’ll get better. Perhaps quickly. Perhaps significantly. I’ll say 2 of these 3 will play significant, positive roles in 2017.
      3. Jairo Diaz will be back from TJ and able to contribute by June.
      4. I still hold out some hope for Jake McGee. I think (solely my opinion) he was still struggling with some knee issues this season. I think he’ll rebound to some extent (similar to what Boone Logan did this season) and be solid useful.
      5. Otto will be a full season removed from TJ and should get his “feel” back, as well as 1-2 MPH.
      6. Chris Rusin, if Managed properly, can be a nice long reliever.
      7. I’ll say for the 1000th time, this is where Eddie Butler should be as well.

      So this brings me back to my fundamental belief, we need to add one HeLP (High Leverage Pitcher). The price tag on the elite FA closers (Jansen, Chapman, Melancon) will be through the roof. I think we have to get our man via trade. Now…..this is where I’m relying on Black/Foster/Holmes/Wiley to put their heads (and eyes) together and watch a lot of film. I want to know……where did Trevor Rosenthal go wrong? Is it a mechanical flaw? Is he hiding an injury? Is he a head case? If those guys spot a mechanical flaw they think they can fix…..I propose an old fashioned, value for value, straight up one for one trade. Cargo for Rosenthal.

      Reply
    • mucs10

      November 11, 2016

      Just a quick comment on Monfort saying payroll will increase. I believe these figures to be true if memory serves. Last year payroll (and I’m rounding) was $112 million. This includes $15 million to Reyes. So actual payroll was $97 million. We owe Reyes $22 million in 2017 so that plus the $97 million means that the payroll ($119 million) will be the highest ever without shelling out $1 over $97 million. I have learned over the years to not believe everything he says. Jaded am I yes.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 11, 2016

      Interesting tidbit – the Blue Jays have very quickly signed Kendrys Morales. This should definitively signal the end of the Edwin Encarnacion (nicknamed E5 from his early days when he played 3rd base) era in Toronto. I know there are a relatively large number of Purple Row regulars who love the concept of the Rockies signing E5. I’m personally skeptical due to the $$$$ involved and more importantly the loss of a draft pick. Note that we finished with the 11th worst record – one game above the Halos (10th worst). The top 10 picks are protected. So if we sign E5 (or any other player with a QO – such as Mark Trumbo) – we will give up the #11 pick in the draft. I don’t see that happening.

      We’ll soon have a new CBA – and I expect changes (likely significant) to the QO system. But changes won’t be implemented until the 17/18 season.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 11, 2016

      From John Perrotto at FanRag (regarding Mark Melancon):

      Melancon and the Colorado Rockies are said to have mutual interest. He was born and raised in the Denver area and was a standout three-sport athlete at suburban Golden High School.

      Melancon led the major leagues with 51 saves for the Pirates in 2015 and had a combined 47 with Pittsburgh and the Washington Nationals this year.

      Owner Dick Monfort said during the press conference to introduce manager Bud Black on Monday that Colorado will have the biggest payroll in franchise history in 2017, surpassing this year’s $114-millon mark.

      “Chapman and Jansen get all the attention because they throw hard but I love Melancon,” a scout from an NL team. “He has that cutter that just disappears when it gets to home plate and he never seems to ever blow a save.”

      This would certainly be a bold move. Melancon has been excellent as a Closer and setup man. This would give us two really good HeLP relievers. Most will think I’m crazy – but I think the addition of a single upper tier HeLP RP (via trade or FA) goes a long, long way to fixing the entire Rox BP.

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      November 11, 2016

      The winner of the Wilson Best Defensive Player of the year at 3rd base is …. Nolan Arenado!

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      November 12, 2016

      My ideas:

      1) sign Melancon or Brett Cecil.
      2) resign Boone Logan.
      3) if Matt Holliday can play 1B defensively as well as Mark Reynolds then by all means grab him! I saw on MLBN that Holliday still has the exit velocity among the leaders. So his peripherals are still good.
      5) Jairo Diaz start the year in ABQ and work his way back like Zero did last year.
      6) make Jason Motte and Chad Qualls retire.
      7) sign Arenado to long term contract so free agents want to come here. Bud Black and getting rid of Montfort’s meddling was a start to attract free agents.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 13, 2016

      Article and interview of Bud Black on MLBTV. I’ve noted previously about Black’s credibility and “Street creed.” Here’s and interesting anecdote regarding Black and Mark Wiley’s past history together from that article:

      The closest baseball connection is with Mark Wiley, who since 2013 has guided the Rockies’ pitching philosophy in the Majors and Minors as the director of pitching operations. Wiley was Black’s pitching coach during two stints with the Indians, 1987-90 and in 1995. In their first conversation after Black arrived in a trade with Kansas City, Wiley asked him for the best advice he’d received from a pitching coach.
      “Cloyd Boyer with the Royals taught [Black] that there were two or three times in a game when you have to prove you’re a Major League pitcher,” Wiley said. “Your back is back against the wall, traffic on the bases, and you have to turn it up. So I started calling those ‘CB’s, for Cloyd Boyer.”

      Wiley incorporated that into his teaching. Pitchers in the Rockies’ current young wave, such as Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson, have been using what Black brought with him from K.C.
      “Even today, our pitchers will say during a game, ‘Here’s one of those CBs,” Wiley said. “Bud got a kick out of that when I told him.”

      In the video (actually – it was via phone), Black indicated that he and Bridich were currently sifting through options to fill out the Staff. I got the impression this may well be complete in the next couple of weeks.

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      November 13, 2016

      These are the minor league players that are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
      Shane Carle RHP
      Ryan Carpenter LHP
      Matt Flemer RHP
      Sam Moll LHP
      Jan Vasquez C
      Tim Smalling IF/OF
      Michael Tauchman RF
      Yancy Almonte RHP
      Alex Balog RHP
      Shane Broyles RHP
      Devin Burke RHP
      Rayan Gonzalez RHP
      Austin House RHP
      Zach Jemiola RHP
      Matt Pierpont RHP
      Konner Wade RHP
      Ashley Graeter C/IF
      Michael Benjamin 3B
      Zach Osborne SS/IF
      Correlle Prime 1B
      Dillon Thomas LF/RF
      Marc Magliaro RHP
      Troy Neiman RHP
      Luis Niebla RHP
      Carlos Polance RHP
      Helmis Rodriguez LHP
      Robbie Perkins C
      Luis Jean SS/IF
      Emerson Jimenez SS
      Yonathan Daza LF/OF
      Max White CF/OF
      Julian Hernandez RHP
      Cristian Quintin RHP
      Jesus Tinoco RHP
      Hamlet Marte C/1B
      Luis Guzman LHP
      Joel Diaz C/1B

      I assume that Jesus Tinoco and maybe Sam Moll will be added to the 40 man roster to protect them.

      Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        November 14, 2016

        I checked the Rockies roster web and there are six openings (currently 34 on 40-man roster). Let’s assume that there will be at least three acquisitions that will be added. Granted, there’s always a possibility that a player(s) will be removed from the roster to make room for acquisitions. From the above, I think Yency Almonte is a lock. Others who should be considered in my opinion: Sam Moll, Alex Balog, Rayan Gonzalez, Zach Jemiola, and Helmis Rodriguez. I doubt Jesus Tinoco will be protected as he was severely beaten down in AA and had to be sent back to A. I’m high on Rayan Gonzalez because I watched one game of the Salt River Rafters on MLBN. Gosh, Gonzalez had a mean 12 to 6 curve.

        Reply
        • Bob K.

          November 18, 2016

          The Rockies added the following minor leaguers to the 40 man roster.

          Yency Almonte
          Shane Carle
          Rayan Gonzalea
          Zach Jemiola
          Sam Moll

          Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 14, 2016

      Fangraphs Top 50 Free Agents

      The always great Fangraphs once again comes through. After reading through it, I’m “sold” on Mark Melancon. And to the glee of many Rockies fans, they’re quite high on Matt Holliday.

      One “wildcard” name that intrigues me a bit – Ian Desmond. Former infielder, converted to OF last year by Rangers. I have to believe he could (easily) play 1B and give position flexibility. Of course, so can Matt Holliday at less cost and less time commitment.

      Alas……Desmond has a qualifying offer. My intrigue is going down by the second!

      Players with QOs:

      Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
      Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets
      Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers
      Edwin Encarnación, Toronto Blue Jays
      Dexter Fowler, Chicago Cubs
      Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies
      Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
      Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles
      Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
      Neil Walker, New York Mets

      Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        November 14, 2016

        Cross off Jeremy Hellickson as he accepted QO from the Phillies. The only starting pitchers remaining on the market aren’t exactly top shelf types. Jason Hammel, Rich Hill, and one other that slips my mind are the only three remaining SPs on the market that is above the scrap heap level.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          November 15, 2016

          RMH – someone will give JDLR a decent amount of $$$$$, wait and see!

          Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 15, 2016

      ESPN’s Bob Nigthengale on Chris Sale:

      Nightengale notes that the White Sox haven’t had any “serious” trade talks with any clubs regarding the ace southpaw, but it appears the Nats will be in on the bidding if/when things heat up. The White Sox have hinted strongly that they’re headed for a rebuild this offseason, and Sale would certainly bring a monster package of prospects. He’s owed just $38 million over the next three seasons, adding to his appeal.

      I post this quote here not because of Sale, but because of Jose Abreu and the “rebuild” reference to the ChiSox. Abreu opted out of his contract yesterday to become arbitration eligible the next 3 years. Best guess, he’ll be 12-15M per year through 2019. A relative bargain. RHed 1Bman. Know a team that needs one of those?

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        November 16, 2016

        Boy…….even the Braves are rumored to be inquiring about Sale. I’m sort of a believer in the old cliche “where there’s smoke there’s probably fire,” so I’m inclined to believe the ChiSox are really considering this. If they deal Sale – they’ll get a big package of prospects. But it also will signal they’re looking down the road a few years and will mean Abreu (and Quintana) are available.

        Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      November 18, 2016

      I don’t get it. Mike Trout is AL MVP from a losing team. Arenado finishes behind Corey Seager and Kris Bryant? I can accept Dan Murphy beating out Arenado like in the Players Choice awards. Good grief. At least I’m happy for Trout as he’s my favorite player in all of baseball. I invested in a Trout autographed jersey and have it framed in my baseball cave. Onward to HOF for Trout. You go, boy.

      Reply
      • Bob K.

        November 18, 2016

        Actually Arenado finished 5th behind Rizzo at 4th. All the discussion indicates that it is the anti Coors field bias where a lot of voters discount any good hitting stats as being caused by Coors field. Can you imagine how many home runs Arenado would hit if he played his home games in the Orioles stadium?

        Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      November 18, 2016

      Looks like Mucs10 was answered in the Denver Post!

      You, and others, seem very high on Black based on the fact that he was a major-league pitcher and previous manager in the NL West. He had a losing record in San Diego, never took the Padres to the playoffs and blew a 6 1/2 game lead in September 2010.

      Perfect, he’s just like all the other Rockies managers. My concern is that he was a major league pitcher who could not win as a manager in a pitcher’s ballpark. What’s he possibly going to do in a hitter’s ballpark. So, here is my question. Why are you so high on him? What has he done to lead you to believe he will embrace analytics? Why do you think he will be a good manager in a hitter’s ballpark, when he had only two winning seasons in a pitcher’s ballpark. As you can tell I’m not high on Bud Black, so convince me.

      — Wayne, Rotonda West, Florida

      Wayne, if you have read any of my recent columns, you would have a sense why I like Black, but I can provide you with a number of other reasons:

      The Rockies players I have talked to are thrilled with the selection. Word through the big-league grapevine is that Black is considered to be a knowledgeable, strong and fair-minded manager.
      The Rockies have never had a manager with a pitching-rich background, so I think trying something new is a smart move.
      I like that Black is not an authoritarian manager. He empowers his coaching staff. His style is based partially on his personality and partially from observing the managers he played for and served under as a coach. I think his hiring of Mike Redmond shows he wants a strong staff.
      Black was pitching coach when the Angels won the 2002 World Series. In his 15 years as manager and pitching coach, his pitching staff has finished with one of the five lowest earned run averages in baseball seven times. Yes, part of that has to do with Petco Park, but I think he knows pitching.
      He was the Nationals’ No. 1 pick last winter before negotiations went sour and the Nationals went with Dusty Baker.
      Black genuinely wants to be in Colorado and does not seem intimidated by Coors Field. I think that’s a big deal.
      Finally, from a selfish perspective, I’m happy to have a media-friendly manager. Not that you care about that, but it sure makes my life easier. Plus, I think it’s good for the organization.

      Reply
    • mucs10

      November 18, 2016

      I saw that. I’m amazed to say the least. Two other times I have been unanswered. Anyway, I thought that was a pretty good answer. However, the answers I received at this site were better and did a better job of convincing me. Not that I really needed convincing. As I have stated it was more of a “Devil’s Advocate” type of thing from my perspective. And yes I had read all of his articles. The RWO folks just did a better job in my opinion. I am glad he is the manager and I am looking forward to a really good season. I like the Redmond hire. Looking forward to seeing the hitting coach. I agree with RMH, how can Arenado get such little respect. I wish Story didn’t get hurt. Would have loved to see him outhit Seagar, although I fear he would not get any attention from national writers even though he more than deserved it.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        November 19, 2016

        For better or worse, right or wrong……the Rox have to start winning for players like Arendao and Story to have a real chance at winning Individual Awards. Yes…..the Angels sucked this year. But they’re not that far removed from the playoffs.

        Reply
    • Doc

      November 19, 2016

      I think this is the year where all the disrespect comes together in a perfect storm of pay back. This year’s team is going to kick some butt.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 20, 2016

      I’ve been much less critical of the Rox Front Office since the Bridich transition. By and large, things seem to be moving in the correct direction.

      That being said, I think we made a mistake not trading Boone Logan @ the deadline. Bret Cecil 4 years, 30 million-ish, Cardinals. These LOOGY types are in high demand. I see no way the Rox resign Logan. Could have gotten something for him.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 23, 2016

      FanGraphs has done it again;

      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bud-black-on-managing-and-run-prevention-in-colorado/

      I don’t think I’m exaggerating if I say I’ve read more quantitative, logical, pragmatic baseball sense from Bud Black in the last two weeks than I did from WW in three years. In this article, Black once again confirms he’s not an analytics Neanderthal, that he’s already deep into Rockies scouting and current roster trends, and that he has great personal experience to draw from due to his San Diego days and frequent trips to Coors.

      Also – I listened to a Mike Redmond interview of the MLB Network. I think it’s clear job #1 for Redmond will be coaching/mentoring Murphy and Wolters.

      Also also – Cargo extension talk resurfaced yesterday. This time – there’s a quote or two attributed to Cargo himself saying that there has been some talk between the two sides. My opinion on this is simply…………..it’s all about $$$$$. Right now (and let’s say this holds for the foreseeable future – maybe 2017 and 2018), Cargo is about a 2 WAR player. Maybe 2.5 War. There’s an extremely rough rule-of-thumb that 1 WAR is worth about 8M these days. So hypothetically – if Cargo is extended for 4 years @ 60M…….that’s probably a good deal for the Rockies. Especially if he can backload some of the money…..and even reduce some of the 20M he’s owed in 17 via redistribution. Now for a bad hypothetical – 4 years @ 90M. Too much. The Rox shouldn’t do it. Let’s see what happens with this one.

      Reply
      • roxnsox

        November 23, 2016

        Wow, isn’t that just nutso? One extra win is worth 8 million bucks? I know this discussion has long since left the station, about what Larry Walker once called “cuckoo money” when discussing his own salary – and he’s the ONLY athlete I’ve ever heard call it like it is, bless you, Walk – but it still hits me between the eyes when framed in certain ways.

        Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        November 24, 2016

        I read that Fangraph article on Black. The more i read and hear about him the more happy i am with him instead of Dave Martinez whom I was beating the drums for. I feel like for the first time in franchise history the GM/manager combo has it figured out how to pitch at altitude. Now they just have to put it in action. Black is tossing many theories by previous management and using analytics such as spin rate and knowing it’s OK to have fly ball pitchers if most of them are mishits. Loving Black and Bridich now.

        Today i am thankful on this Thanksgiving holiday that the Montfort brothers took their hands off baseball operations and focus on the profit margin instead.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          November 25, 2016

          You know me, Mr “Sell High, Buy Low” (sort of like Kevin O’Leary’s “Mr Wonderful” character on Shark Tank). I’m not opposed to taking advantage of Blackmon at his career high “value.” Gallo intrigues me. We were at a Reds/Rangers ST game last year at Goodyear when he hit a ball over the OF concourse. But he does have the big, fat, swing and miss wart. Where I’m headed is this…..I’d do Blackmon for Gallo, but I’d need another piece. The Rangers have a good, deep Farm, so this could be possible. I’d ask for Leody Tavares (18 YO cousin of Wily Tavares). Speed outfielder. Scouting “speed grade” of 60, arm grade of 55, field grade of 55 (50 is a really good grade – typically means the Prospect has major league potential).

          Reply
          • rockymountainhigh

            November 25, 2016

            If Gallo has long swings then i wouldn’t want him. It seems like those with long swings don’t last past prime age. Contrast with David Ortiz with his shorter swings. I fear CarGo will go the way of Brad Hawpe. Trade him not Blackmon. Dahl and Story have shorter swings.

            Reply
    • Bob K.

      November 23, 2016

      The Rockies have brought back Josh Rutledge on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      November 23, 2016

      Cowboy writes that Melancon n Rockies are more than a long shot. Grant Brisbee also says Rockies is a good fit for Encarnacion. I think we will sign Holliday or Reynolds so we can use the money for Melancon and contract extensions.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 24, 2016

      Bob K – I’m not a Rutledge fan, but this is an absolute no risk, cheap signing to compete for a reserve infield slot in ST, and if he doesn’t win it, be in ABQ and provide reserve infield depth with Major League experience during the season in case of injury. He’s basically Descalso – but a good bit cheaper.

      RMH – where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Ringolsby is nothing if not Rockies “connected.” I wrote this on Purple Row yesterday – imagine a back end of the Pen of Melancon, Otto, an improved Estevez, a healthy Castro, and (heaven forbid) a healthy, rebounded Jake McGee (I’m convinced he was still having knee issues this past year). That’s not bad. Chris Rusin as a long man is attractive. Jairo Diaz back for the 2nd half is attractive. This is why I say “in theory” turning the Pen around is easier than our 1B problem. I do agree with you…..if we successfully spend and get Melancon, 1B will become a “pieced together” platoon and at that point, Holliday looks really good.

      Don’t step on any snakes in Australia. They’re all poisonous there!!!

      Reply
      • rockymountainhigh

        November 24, 2016

        I don’t think there are any snakes on my cruise ship. 🙂 i was reading ESPN and i really like this trade scenario. Copied/pasted:

        “Enter Gallo. Is he the answer at first base? Is he still the future replacement for the ageless Adrian Beltre? Or have the Rangers soured on him after he hit .240 with 150 strikeouts at Triple-A? Either way, Gallo and his light-tower power in Coors Field would be all sorts of fun, and the Rockies would be getting six years of Gallo for two years of Blackmon.”

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 25, 2016

      I’m telling you……there’s lots of Melancon “smoke,” I think there has to be something behind all this talk.

      Reply
    • Doc

      November 26, 2016

      Charlie is one case where I don’t think the Rox have a player they over-value. I worry they won’t get enough.

      Reply
      • roxnsox

        November 26, 2016

        If Charlie goes (boooooo), who plays center? Not Parra, please. Is Tapia ready? Is there somebody else I’m not thinking of? Does Dahl move over, and Parra play left? (Again, no thanks)

        Reply
          • roxnsox

            November 26, 2016

            Yep, I know. So, that brings up left field…..? Parra, I suppose.

            Reply
            • sdcarp

              November 26, 2016

              We’ve been kicking this one around on Purple Row. With the Cubs…..there are all sorts of possibilities. But two particularly intriguing ones are OF Eloy Jimenez (likely AA bound in 17 and also likely to be a consensus top 25 Prospect when the 17 rankings come out) and RP Carl Edwards Jr. The Cubs astutely picked up Edwards Jr in a trade from the Mariners late in 16. Some consider him their Closer of the future. He’s got big upside, and is already in the Majors.

              Picking up Edwards would presumably negate the need for Melancon. We’d have a cost controlled high leverage reliever for years to come. Bud Black will have good insight on Edwards Jr. from his Angels ties (since Edwards Jr. came through the Mariners system).

              I’m not convinced Tapia is ready to be an everyday major league player. Maybe? Maybe not? So in my world, trading Blackmon means we likely need to pick up an OFer, at least short term. Lots of pieces in play here. Will we sign Cargo long term?

              Regardless, Blackmon’s value is as high as it will ever be. EVER. We’ve really struggled with this concept in the past. Blackmon is already 30. Two years away from free agency. I guarantee the QO system will not exist after this year. I’m not saying “yes” or “no” in a vacuum on this one. Too many pieces in play. But there’s definitely a scenario where it makes sense to deal Blackmon

    • rockymountainhigh

      November 26, 2016

      I like this deal with Cubs for Blackmon. That way we have backup plan if we lose the Melancon sweepstakes. You say we will need to p pick up OF…dexter fowler? Sign Holliday to play 1B and 4th OF.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        November 26, 2016

        There a QO attached to Fowler, so we would have to give up our 1st draft pick (11 OA) to sign him. Even if the QO offer goes by the wayside with the new CBA (I expect this WILL happen), the current rules should govern this year’s FA process. So Fowler is doblely expensive.

        I suppose there could be some sort of collusion deal…..we send the Cubs Blackmon, we sign Fowler, they send us Jimenez and Edwards Jr. They also get the #11 pick. Something tells me this isn’t quite legal.

        Reply
        • Bob K.

          November 27, 2016

          While the Rockies would lose the 11th pick the Cubs would not get the 11th pick. They would get an extra pick somewhere near the end of the first round.

          Reply
        • roxnsox

          November 27, 2016

          Carp, are you looking at Dex as a flip in this scenario (with the involvement of the other Cubs OF you mention)? I can’t see Dex wanting to sign here, in any case. And weren’t a number of you guys (and/or gals) kind of down on him? (Not me! :-))

          Reply
          • sdcarp

            November 27, 2016

            Not really RoxnSox….I was just throwing out a “hypothetical.” Honestly, I don’t think the Blackmon/Cubs thing will go anywhere simply because it’s too easy for them to simply resign Fowler.

            Reply
            • Roxnsox

              November 27, 2016

              Yeah, I knew it was hypothetical. Was just musing along with you. Me, I’d be plenty thrilled to see Charlie stay.

    • Pooter

      November 28, 2016

      Below are the two steps that need to be taken for the Rockies to be a playoff team in 2017:

      1. Trade for Wade Davis
      2. Sign Matt Holiday to play 1st base.

      Do it!

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      November 29, 2016

      Some general “stuff” going on:

      1. Mets resign Yoenis Cespedes for a rather staggering 4 years, 110M. It’s backloaded a little bit. He’ll get 29.5M in 2020. That’s almost Miggy Cabrera money. Crazy if you ask me.
      2. Brewers release 1B RHed Chris Carter (the Chris Carter that hit 41 HRs in 2016). Of course he’s got a 30% K rate, and isn’t good defensively (although there is an interesting debate over on PR about exactly how bad (or not) his defense actually is. Seems like his glove work around the bag is solid, but his range is bad (he’s a big, big man)).
      3. Looks as though the Owners have dropped the International Draft requirement from the CBA. Deadline is almost here. We’ll see if this gets done.

      Pooter – regarding your two steps to make the Rox a playoff team in 17 – I agree with the road map. But I worry about Wade Davis’s health (elbow).

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      November 29, 2016

      Chris Carter: my stats-oriented mind says “hell no,” but my gut says “why the hell not?” Carp, I think you hit the nail on the head: it all depends on exactly how deficient his work at 1B is. I can see the advanced defensive metrics hate him (16 runs below average on fangraphs), but remember that those numbers are already position adjusted for defensive value — I think Mark Reynolds came in at something like -9) — and as you note they are also about range rather than the ability to scoop throws, or (my favorite not-entirely convincing argument) to be a “big target.” No doubt he is a big target. If you could get him relatively cheap, I’d do it at the same time as trying to find a 1B partner who is his opposite, kind of a Descalso type but hopefully a little better. Bat Carter in the 7 hole (or better still, 9th with the pitcher ahead of him?) and just let him swing for the fences. Like I said, with my stats-heavy biases I should probably hate the idea, but sometimes you gotta take a chance …

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        November 29, 2016

        You and I are on the same wave length on this one. I did a little (and I emphasize “little”) research regarding FA 1Bmen with solid gloves and Adam Lind “almost sort of” fits the description. He’s LHed – which could work also. He was awful last year….but is only a year removed from +/- 2-3 WAR seasons in 14 and 15. So, while not expensive, he wouldn’t be cheap either. He actually has some thump himself, as well.

        Reply
    • Agbayani

      November 29, 2016

      Since I don’t think we’ll get Melancon (and I’m not sure it would be a good idea to tie up that much money/years in a 30-something closer anyway), let me throw out a couple cheaper/shorter term relievers for consideration: Sergio Romo and Brad Ziegler. I’ve had this notion for quite some time that “trick” delivery/trick pitch guys actually do well at Coors. Brad Ziegler is kind of a super Steve Reed, submariner with a ridiculous groundball rate and (so far; he’s 37) a rubber arm. Romo’s frisbee sliders (RMH’s term) shouldn’t work so well in Coors, but my impression is that they seemed to confuse the hell out of Rockies hitters over several years. His velocity (never high to begin with) was down last year so that’s troubling, but I think he may have a few years left once he adjusts to that fact. I’m willing to take a chance on an aging trick pitcher because they can often go effectively into their late 30s, unlike the aging fastballers (Motte, McGee — by the way, have we officially dumped McGee yet? If not, please do so immediately) we’ve specialized in lately. Javy Lopez is out there as a free agent too, but I’d rather fill the LOOGY role with someone cheaper internally, and I still think either Sam Moll or Jerry Vasto may fit the bill. Mike Myers, Steve Reed, Brian Fuentes … bring back the quirky delivery guys!

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        November 29, 2016

        OK – not on same wavelength here. Ziegler/Romo are the 2017 version of Motte/Qualls. Just say “no.”

        One thing I would do…..take a flier on Nathan Eovaldi “if” he’ll accept being a relief pitcher when he comes back in 18.

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        November 30, 2016

        I find myself really neutral on this deal. Lyles is talented. Former #38 OA draft pick. I was a fan of the trade that brought him here. I’ve consistently been a Lyles apologist. But my patience is wearing thin. In my opinion, he’s a head case. He should be put in the bullpen day 1 of Spring Training and solely focus on 1 or 2 pitches and getting 1 or 2 batters out.

        Of course, here’s the thing – in the world of warped baseball economics, and escalating RP salaries, 3.1M could be a steal if he can produce a positive WAR. He’s also a FA in 2018, so he should be motivated.

        I’ll give this one a small golf clap.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          November 30, 2016

          I posted this comment over on Purple Row;

          It could be Bud Black likes him.

          Lyles was the 38th pick in the 2008 amateur draft. There were 46 players taken in the first round that year. The Padres had 3 picks as follows;

          Allan Dykstra #23
          Jaff Decker #42
          Logan Forsythe #46
          So it’s not a reach to think Black and company had Lyles on their draft board. They surely had scouted him. This could be as simple as Black taking a flier on a talent he knows.

          Reply
        • Bob K.

          November 30, 2016

          I suspect that if used properly by a manager who knows how to use a pitching staff that Lyles can become a valued member of the bullpen. He looked great and he looked bad at times this past season and really bad when Weiss misused him. I don’t think that will happen with Black as a manager.

          Reply
    • Doc

      December 1, 2016

      I find it interesting that we’re assuming Bud Black has been given this power of input into personnel. That in of itself seems a giant leap forward from the previous workings of the Rox front office. Very positive development..

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 1, 2016

        I think Black is heavily involved for two reasons:

        1. I read a story regarding the hiring Mike Redmond and the story implied Black was the one that made the call and extended the offer.
        2. I read another story (a Q and A) with Bridich last week and Bridich said he a Black have talked at least once a day, everyday, since he was hired. Black has been around too long to not be used. Last year’s FO time with the Angels is surely invaluable.

        Reply
    • Bob K.

      December 2, 2016

      Rockies avoid arbitration, sign Jake McGee for $5.9 million. Arenado, Blackmon and Chatwood are still left to be signed.

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      December 3, 2016

      A bit about the new CBA that I saw on MLB network channel last night. The all star game no longer has any effect on home field. After the fan vote, the commissioner’s office gets to pick 7 NL All Stars (4 pitchers) and 5 AL All Stars (4 pitchers). Just my opinion but I don’t believe that the commissioner’s office should be picking any All Stars. I also do not understand why they would pick 7 from the NL but only 5 from the AL.

      Reply
    • Constance

      December 3, 2016

      It’s great to find sooenme so on the ball

      Reply
    • Lettie

      December 3, 2016

      That’s not just logic. That’s really sebsenli.

      Reply
    • Agatha

      December 3, 2016

      salutje suis un jeune camerounais. je vis à Yaoundé. je cherche un moyen de rencontrer un asoniptmsnoiste facilement. ce que vous faite m’intéresse et j’aimerai mieux vous connaitre.

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      December 4, 2016

      Jake McGee: why? Why oh why, Jeff Bridich? I search in vain for any thread of hope in his last year’s performance. Maybe they’re looking for him simply as the lefty specialist? Well, lefties hit over .300 (.848 OPS, which is awful) against him last year. I’ve read “he was better in the second half,” but perhaps only in the most superficial way – his fielding independent ERA was over 5.00 in the second half. All of which could be small sample size stuff except to everyone who watched him, he was either washed up or doing a remarkable imitation of a washed up reliever, with velocity down anywhere from 2 mph (his best appearances) to 7 mph (his worst) from his previous Tampa average. I can only assume that acquiring him was all Bridich’s idea, and Bridich won’t admit he blew it on that one, even though he has a perfect after-the-fact excuse that the trade was all about getting German Marquez. This one’s just weird, and while we don’t know the salary yet, it’s got to be on the order of at least $4 million, which (again) when added to Motte and Qualls (and you could throw in Lyles I suppose, although that one’s more defensible) means an awful lot of money committed to aging relievers who were, by any account, absolutely awful in 2016.

      On another point: what the hell is the incentive for the bot comments that fill up blogs like this? I’ve never been able to figure it out.

      Reply
      • roxnsox

        December 4, 2016

        Agreed that this is a crap signing. And would love the RWO Staff to figure out how to block the bots.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 4, 2016

      Alright – I’m going to be the contrarian on McGee, and I’m going to own the fact that I’m basing my “contrarianism” almost solely on gut feeling and a guess.

      I see McGee doing in 2017 more or less what Logan did in 2016. By that I mean – fully recover from injury, regain confidence, and become a solid LHed specialist. This also comes back to the warped world of baseball economics. 5.1M for a LHed RP who is solid (I’m making my big assumption with “solid”) is a steal these days. Out of the three BP disasters (Qualls, Motte, McGee), I feel like McGee is most likely to bounce back.

      Now…..don’t press me too hard to defend this opinion with facts. I can’t.

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      December 5, 2016

      Melancon appear ready to sign with the Giants. Rumors are 4 year deal for $60+ million.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 6, 2016

      Yeah – great Q&A.

      Numerous reports that the Rox and CWS have talked about an Abreu trade. My random thoughts on this are:

      1. If the CWS deal Chris Sale, then they should, and will deal Abreu.
      2. In the big picture, Abreu is my favorite option. I’d try to structure a deal around McMahon and Nikorak. I’d put Tapia in the deal if we can also get Nate Jones (not Nate Robertson) back in the deal as well.
      3. In this scenario, we keep the #11 OA draft pick, which will immediately replace one of the players we give up.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 6, 2016

        I should say David Robertson, not Nate Robertson (I’m living in the past, huh?). Sorry.

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 6, 2016

        Funny – I suggested Frazier this AM on PR….and was essentially scoffed at for being silly. “We don’t need a rental.”

        Let’s look at this (Frazier) logically:
        He should be significantly cheaper than Abreu since there is only 1 year of control.
        He “should” (we don’t know this for sure) be better defensively than all the other 1B options.
        He’s younger (30).
        He’s played extensively in the NL.

        I’m intrigued. Hypothetically, what if we can extend him 4 years, 70M (so we have him 5 years)? In today’s baseball economics, not a bad deal. What if we “only” gave up McMahon and Senzatella to get him and Nate Jones (the Sox very solid setup RP, way cheaper than Robertson).

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 7, 2016

      Wow…..Ian Desmond. My initial thoughts are:

      1. Desmond is a GREAT athlete. I saw him in ST last year. In great condition. Extremely versatile. Should age well.
      2. I suppose if one takes this at face value, he’ll play 1st. But he really too good an athlete to play 1st.
      3. So…….does this mean Cargo plays 1st? Is this a precursor to another trade? Sell high on Blackmon, get some Pen help and a couple of Prospects and then sign Chris Carter. Hard to say. There are really all sorts of possibilities.
      4. Could easily be our version of Ben Zobrist.

      I’m a fan of athletes. Desmond can do a lot of things well. The contract amount seems “reasonable” by baseball economics.

      Regarding losing the draft pick…..trading for Abreu was going to cost McMahon and Tapia (or similar). Since those guys are at AAA/AA level or better, they’re more of a sure thing than a #11 draft pick. So I’m sort of neutral on this.

      I guess my overall thought with this one is “stay tuned.”

      Reply
    • Bill

      December 7, 2016

      Desmond is athletic. That’s for sure.If he can use that to be a nimble athletic first baseman that’s great. OR is there another move down the line and Desmond moves to the OF. The problem with that is from all reports he was a good fielding CF not a great fielding CF. Blackman, Dahl (perhaps) and Cargo are great OFs. Interesting where that goes but the fact that he can play anywhere (except for the fact that he’s never played first in his MLB career) is a plus. Zobrist isn’t a great player but can play anywhere and has been a key player on 2 straight WS winners is of course a plus. Still not sure if this a thought out trade or a panic move. Got to disagree a bit with carp that he may be too good an athlete to play first. A great fielding first baseman turns numerous throws from SS and #B into outs rather than errors. I’ve been absent here for awhile but I hope I can contribute more in the future.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 7, 2016

        Bill…..you’re right. You should disagree with me. You can never be “too good an athlete.” I guess perhaps I should say that his extreme athleticism could be put to use better at other positions.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 7, 2016

      Ag – I know you’re out there somewhere. What are you thoughts on this one?

      I’m really applauding the out-of-the-box thinking, but is it too out-of-the-box?

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 7, 2016

        RMH – I think there are lots of guys that think “compartmentalized” (Bisbee and Keith Law (who has already written a scathing mini-article) are examples). It’s ironic, because many of these same people embrace analytics. I’m guilty as well – in my comment above (and Bill pointed this out), I say Desmond is too athletic to play 1st.

        Where I’m headed is…….a couple of years ago Theo Epstein obtained Addison Russell in a trade from the A’s even though he had Javier Baez (SS at the time) already at the high levels of the Cubs Farm and Starling Castro on the Major League roster. Then…he went and signed Ben Zobrist. Epstein’s defense of the Russell trade in particular was something like (paraphrased) “you get the best player available, regardless of position, regardless of needs, and then figure it out.” In my opinion – this thought process hasn’t been accepted by most in the game of baseball. But it seems like this might be Bridich’s thought process in this case. He looked at what was available and the length of contract that was going to be required, and got the best athlete.

        Regarding Bisbee and length on contract – think about this:

        Encarnacion is 33
        Trumbo is 30
        Todd Frazier is 30
        Jose Abreu is supposedly 31
        Chris Carter is 29
        Adam Lind is 33
        Mike Napoli is 35
        Desmond is 31

        The top guys (Trumbo and Encarnacion – we were supposedly considering) are looking for 4-5 year contracts. I promise you out of this entire group Desmond is the most athletic. I frequently say the players that rely on the speed tool are the fastest to decline. Desmond is fast – but he has all the tools. So I like his chances to age well. I don’t want to go too far defending this deal…….because I’m not sure we’re at the end yet. But I’m definitely not panning it either. I’m very intrigued.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 7, 2016

      PR reporting Jays/Rox talking Blackmon for Stroman. I like this….and it makes the Desmond signing infinitely more logical.

      Reply
      • roxnsox

        December 7, 2016

        There’s got to be more pieces to this move that are yet to be revealed. It makes little sense on the face of it. I’d take Stroman for Blackmon. It’s gonna hurt me to see Charlie go, if and when, but it seems like he’s the best chip, as many of you say.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          December 7, 2016

          Multiple reports in Twitter world (Heyman, Rosenthal, Passan) that Rox are still in on Trumbo. Since the Rox have signed Desmond and given up their 1st round pick as compensation, guys like Trumbo/Encarnacion now “only” cost a 2nd round pick.

          Reply
    • Julian

      December 7, 2016

      Interesting trade. It’s a lot of money. I think that I’m thumbs down on it, although, as others have said, it might depend on other moves that are made. My questions are the following: how much better will Desmond be than the combination of Mark Reynolds and Jordan Patterson in 2017? Starting in 2018, how much better will Ian Desmond be than Ryan McMahon, particularly when you factor in the cost differential and the draft pick.

      Reply
    • jimboelrod

      December 7, 2016

      I like the Desmond signing and I disagree with David Schoenfield of ESPN who states “Going from 75 wins to 90 won’t be easy and Desmond isn’t much of an upgrade over Reynolds.” The Rox 75 win total from last year was as a result of Trevor Story going down the end of July. If Story stays healthy the Rox win at least 81 maybe 82 games. Bud Black vs WW should add another 3 wins at least. A 1B with moderate power and some speed with the ability to hit the ball for a decent average other places should thrive at Coors. I’m not sure if I buy Qualls & Motte for this year but I’m drinking the Purple Kool-Aid on Jake McGee and I think 2017 barring serious injuries (see Story 2016) will be a year of contention. Oh to dream!

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 7, 2016

      Must read article from FanGraphs:

      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-get-weird-ian-desmond-is-a-rockie/

      Did anyone notice how Desmond’s contract is sort of “middle” loaded (meaning he’s getting a relatively small payout in 17, much more in 18 when Reyes is off the books). There’s room for another big FA. There’s really room for another big FA if Cargo is traded. But clearly the best return value is tied to Blackmon.

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      December 7, 2016

      Carp, I have the feeling you’re trying to talk yourself into liking the Desmond signing. Because weird (and ultimately unproductive) as the Parra signing was last year, this one makes that signing seem downright logical. If Desmond really is going to play 1B, you might as well have just brought back Reynolds on a 1-year deal. Desmond’s value is his positional value – other than that lost 2015, he hits really well FOR A SHORTSTOP and pretty well FOR A CENTERFIELDER. Among first baseman, even his best seasons (which he is unlikely to replicate in his age 31-35 years) would have been around average. So you finally get rid of that Tulo/Reyes albatross contract only to take on this one? Weird. And the worst part is (correct me if I’m wrong under the new CBA) is that the Rockies will lose their 1st round pick, which is a really valuable thing to have unless for some reason Monfort is unwilling to pay any more signing bonuses but is willing to pay 31 year old shortstops playing first base $22 million in 2018 …
      … so much like the Parra signing, this one only makes sense if someone else — Blackmon or Cargo — is about to get traded, in which case Desmond’s defensive skills will be put to better use in the outfield. But I thought the same thing last year, that Parra was just the first shot in a series of moves that would all make some kind of sense by the time spring training rolled around. Those other moves never happened. And the biggest problem with Desmond is he’s a risky player to sign to a long contract. That 2015 was really awful, and it was only one season ago. And he didn’t exactly finish strong last year. If he goes all 2015 on us we’re stuck with a pretty bad contract that (combined with Parra for the next couple years) ties up a lot of money that could be used for greater needs, including shoring up that bullpen and (most importantly) re-signing Arenado.
      Or wait a minute … maybe the next shoe to drop is trading Arenado, with Desmond playing 3B? Suddenly this signing would make some sense if that’s where Bridich is heading. I’d hate to see it, but ….

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 8, 2016

        Carp, I have the feeling you’re trying to talk yourself into liking the Desmond signing.

        Damn right that’s what I’m attempting, and you’re not helping!

        Reply
      • roxnsox

        December 8, 2016

        Arenado? NO way they are doing that. But as we are saying, there’s got to be more to this. My first thought was where Desmond was supposed to play! Saunders says he’s the new first baseman. Who has never started at first base in the majors. Right. There’s got to be more! Bridich can’t be continuing the time-honored Rockies tradition of terrible, head-scratching moves! Can he?

        Reply
        • Bob K.

          December 8, 2016

          There absolutely has to be more since the Rockies still have a vacant spot on the 40 man roster as they did not take anyone in the first round of the Rule 5 draft. They did take catcher Anthony Bemboom from the Angels in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft.

          Reply
        • sdcarp

          December 8, 2016

          Nah…………there has to be more. The whole 1B market has taken a rather weird turn that certainly could work in the Rockies favor. EE should have taken the Blue Jays 4 year, 80M offer. It certainly looks as though he’ll get less. The Trumbo market looks lukewarm at best. Chris Carter is still out there. Mike Napoli is still out there. The White Sox still have Abreu and Frazier. The Royals may even dangle Hosmer. When this whole process began – I wasn’t keen on EE and Trumbo primarily because I though neither was worth giving up the #11 OA draft pick tied to the qualifying offer each player had. But since we’ve given up that pick in the Desmond deal – now we will “only” give up our 2nd round pick if signing EE or Trumbo. So it’s less painful from that perspective.

          My gut feeling is that the Rox are currently weighing Blackmon offers. Stroman (Blue Jays) has been mentioned numerous times. The Cardinals have been mentioned (perhaps Wacha. perhaps Weaver. perhaps Rosenthal). I’ve also see speculation that the Orioles could be in play with Zach Britton. Regardless, it seems as though this domino needs to fall prior to signing a 1Bman.

          Reply
    • Bob K.

      December 8, 2016

      The Rockies made no selection in the first round of the Rule 5 Draft. Josh Rutledge however was selected by the Red Sox so his signing by the Rockies was short lived.

      Reply
    • Julian

      December 8, 2016

      I’m surprised that the Rockies couldn’t find one player to draft in the Rule 5 draft. I guess that they’d rather spend 70 million dollars than $50,000.

      Reply
      • Bob K.

        December 8, 2016

        With the new CBA, Rule 5 draftees in the ML portion now cost $100,000 but your point is still valid.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          December 8, 2016

          Baseball America had a fairly in-depth Rule 5 Draft preview that listed about a dozen guys that might be selected. I looked through the list and didn’t see anyone that I thought could stick on the 25 man roster for an entire season. So I’m not surprised the Rox didn’t make a pick. The Padres on the other hand – perhaps on the verge of being an historically bad team in 2017 – should (and did) take all sorts of chances in the Rule 5.

          Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 8, 2016

      Trumbo looking more likely?:

      According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Rockies “remain deeply involved in talks for free agent Mark Trumbo.”

      It echoes a recent report from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, who suggested Wednesday that the Rockies are not done spending despite handing out a five-year, $70 million contract to Ian Desmond at the Winter Meetings. Trumbo led the majors in homers this past year with 47 and his bat would obviously fit well at Coors Field, though there are defensive limitations. He’d have to play a lot of first base in the National League, and it’s scary to imagine him trying to cover any ground in the Colorado outfield.

      Typically Rosenthal and Nightengale are well connected. When they say “deeply involved,” I’m thinking this means we’re at the cross the “t’s,” dot the “i’s,” get the physical done stage of the process.

      If true – this certainly points Desmond to the OF (I’m guessing LF with Dahl moving to CF – assuming Blackmon is dealt. I just don’t think Cargo has the value to bring the pitching piece(s) we need). So this part of the equation makes sense.

      Seems like we might be looking at a lineup like this:

      1. DJ (2nd)
      2. Trevor (SS)
      3. Cargo (RF)
      4. NoDo (3rd)
      5. Trumbo (1st)
      6. Dahl (CF)
      7. Desmond (LF)
      8. Murphy/Wolters (C)

      Reply
    • Bill

      December 8, 2016

      Getting Strohman would be great. Or I think it would be great. Never know with pitchers at Coors. We keep thinking that there must be more to the Desmond deal and I hope so. But what? To trade any of their infielders would bring a haul (or should) and if Desmond replaces them he gives us more age and isn’t as good as Arenado, Story or DJ. But more power than DJ. But what if Story’s injury is worse than we know and he won’t be ready until the middle of the season or later? Hope that’s not the case. Or perhaps Desmond will be signed and then dealt to somebody else. Does he have any no-trade clauses in his contract? I still think he can be a very good 1B both with the glove and with the bat. And good power for 2B but not for first. And the Rocks have (much) more power at SS (if healthy) than most teams. I believe Story led the league in homers by a SS and/or a Rookie even though he missed 2+ months.

      Reply
    • Doc

      December 8, 2016

      So many theories going around as to why in the hell they did it. Lot of speculation that they’re going to trade Blackmon which would open up CF for Desmond but Charlie’s a lot better and cheaper. They’d have to get a lot in return and I doubt they’d get it. I’m inclined to think they’re after the most versatile line up they can, guys that can be moved around in double switches and afford more down time for the regulars. They’ll make Desmond into a first baseman/utility guy. Not happy about losing the draft pick but I think they figured it smarter to invest in Arenado instead of some kid in high school. I take this as a good sign because it means they have confidence in their farm pitchers and passing on an over-priced rookie won’t hurt them. I think Desmond will fit in nicely with a clubhouse filled with a camaraderie that makes me think the Rox are going to make some noise this year

      Reply
    • Bill

      December 8, 2016

      Doc- Hope you’re right. Taking the best players regardless of position has it’s merits. Better than DoD’s theory of taking the best QB available. Would have worked well if O’Dowd took Russell Wilson for the Broncos.

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      December 8, 2016

      Very interesting. And if the Rockies aren’t close to being done spending, my perspective on the Desmond signing changes, particularly if he gets used in the Zobrist way, moving all over the diamond depending on matchups, who’s hurt, who’s slumping, etc.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 8, 2016

      Looks as though our old friend Dexter Fowler is headed to St. Louis. I’m interested to see how his deal will compare to Desmond’s.

      This means St Louis and Washington (Adam Eaton) are presumably finished in the OF. This leaves Toronto, Baltimore, and perhaps Texas as teams we (think) know are searching for an OFer.

      Reply
      • Bob K.

        December 9, 2016

        Fowler reportedly got a 5 year deal for $82.5 million.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          December 9, 2016

          And we gave Desmond 5 years, 70M. Don’t have time to dig into the stats, but these two deals sound about right as the relate to each other.

          Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 11, 2016

      12/11/2016 – Here’s where we stand (in no particular order) post Winter Meetings:

      1. Have a new Manager and Bench Coach.
      2. Need to name at least two more coaches.
      3. Only lost 1 player in the Rule 5 draft, and it was one no one expected to lose – Josh Rutledge. No harm done.
      4. Didn’t select anyone in the Rule 5 draft.
      5. Signed Ian Desmond to what appears to be a “reasonable” contract by today’s standards….but we’re not sure what position he’ll play.
      6. Have done nothing to address Bullpen issues.
      7. Perhaps have done nothing to address 1st….unless Desmond really does play there.
      8. Haven’t extended Cargo (yet). This is a good thing in my book.
      9. As far as we know, haven’t made overtures to JDLR and Hundley about returning (thank God!).

      Some good things on the list. Lots of incomplete things on the list. Seems as though we’re due a few big announcements prior to Christmas.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 13, 2016

        No doubt – get well Chettis!

        Reply
    • Bob K.

      December 13, 2016

      Barring any other changes the Rockies will pick 3rd in the Competitive Balance Draft round B. It will be the 69th pick of the draft as things stand.

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      December 13, 2016

      Ian Desmond was finally announced today and added to the 40 man roster. Supposedly signed as a 1st baseman, it is interesting that he was added to the 40 man roster as an outfielder. Rockies still have 2 open spots on the 40 man roster.

      http://rockiesroster.com/rockies/40-man/

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      December 13, 2016

      Bob K., that’s very interesting, listing Desmond as an outfielder. Just carrying over his position from last year? Trying to balance out INF/OF on the 40 man list? Or an insight into how Rockies management really sees him being used?

      Reply
    • JulieG

      December 14, 2016

      The Denver Post article today went into detail about him being at 1st. That doesn’t mean that management can’t change their minds:-)

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 14, 2016

      If we could somehow unload Parra to someone for nothing other than maybe paying half of his salary and then sign Chris Carter…..I think we’re in business. Desmond splitting time between 1st/4th OFer/other infield positions in emergencies and an expertly platooned Chris Carter is a really, really nice lineup.

      Reply
      • roxnsox

        December 15, 2016

        Really really nice lineup in your “somehow” scenario, carp. But I just can’t see a 5-year $70 million deal going to a Superduper Utility Guy. It’ll be interesting to see what unfolds.

        Reply
        • sdcarp

          December 15, 2016

          Ben Zobrist 4 years – 56M and he was 34 when he signed the deal with the Cubs. Desmond 5 years – 70M and he’s 31. Both deals 14M AAV (average annual value). In fact – I imagine both sides used Zobrist’s deal as the benchmark for this deal – with the only difference being the 5th year for the younger player. Agree…..it will be interesting to monitor going forward.

          Reply
    • Doc

      December 15, 2016

      Like the scenario,k Carp, especially dumping Para

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      December 15, 2016

      Carasiti and Cardullo have both been re-signed to minor league deals with the Rockies.

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 15, 2016

      Not excited about Dunn.

      I suppose this isn’t as bad as Qualls (37 when he signed – perhaps the all-time dumbest Rockies FA signing) and Motte (33 when he signed). He “IS” left-handed – so there’s that. He has extensive experience with Mike Redmond and vica versa – so there’s also that. 19M for 3 years in today’s baseball economics isn’t awful. But it just seems uninspired. If Dunn equals the 2016 Boone Logan – then we’re about equal to where we were in 16 in regards to the LOOGY spot.

      So far, I’m seeing incremental Bullpen improvement. Otto will be stronger post TJ. Hopefully McGee’s knee is healthy. Hopefully Castro is healthy. Estevez should be better simply due to having some experience. I have no doubt they will be managed better in general. But this certainly isn’t a radical bullpen makeover.

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      December 15, 2016

      He was the best remaining BP pitcher on the market. And he had pitched over 10 years with average over 60 innings, 10 strikeouts per 9, and FIP in mid 3 range. Very consistent and he’s NOT a LOOGY pitcher. Mind of reminds me of Matt Belisle when he was excellent BP piece.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 15, 2016

        Fair enough – he’s not a LOOGY. I’m still not impressed. I hope I’m proven wrong. I want to be proven wrong.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 15, 2016

      I’ll preface this by saying Blown Saves is far from an perfect metric to measure the “badness” of a Bullpen. With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s look at team Blown Saves in 2016;

      1. SF 30
      2. Miami 29
      T3. Colorado/CWS 28
      League Average 20
      27. Cubs 15
      30. Indians 11

      To get to league average, we need to improve by 8 blown saves. I listed some incremental improvements a few posts above. Trying to quantify those improvements might look like this:

      Healthy Otto -2
      One of McGee/Castro healthy -1.5
      Estevez maturation -1.5
      Black Managing in lieu of WW -2

      So as of now, without the purple tinted glasses, I’m calling a 7 blown save improvement, which would get us close to average.

      Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      December 15, 2016

      And Dunn gets us to league average or better. Will the BP get better if we re-sign Boone Logan.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 16, 2016

        I don’t see us resigning Logan. So I see 2016 Logan vs. Dunn as a “push,” hence I didn’t include Dunn in my admittedly seat-of-the-pants BP improvement formula.

        Reply
    • Doc

      December 16, 2016

      Any chance Rox sign Ziegler?

      DEC. 16: FanRag’s Jon Heyman and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman both hear that Ziegler is close to a decision (Twitter links). Sherman notes that the Yankees and Mets haven’t been in serious contact with Ziegler’s camp since the Winter Meetings, so he’s likely headed elsewhere. Heyman relays word of a team that has yet to be linked to Ziegler remaining in the mix. (The “mystery team” strikes again!)

      Cotillo adds a bit more context to the scenario, tweeting that Ziegler is hoping to come a decision by the end of the day.

      Reply
      • Bob K.

        December 16, 2016

        Nope, Ziegler signed with the Marlins, 2 years for $16MM.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 17, 2016

      Some generally unsubstantiated rumors floating around that the Rox and Rangers have talked trade. This makes some sense to me. The Rangers are one of the few team (Orioles also) that could really, legitimately use Cargo. They also have some attractive relief pitchers (again, similar to Orioles) and 1B Prospect Joey Gallo….who’s “Prospect” status has cooled a bit due to his high K rates.

      IMO – the best possible Rox scenario remains trading Cargo and getting at least part time 1B help to allow Desmond to be used more like Ben Zobrist.

      If we could somehow get the Rangers to take Cargo and his salary for Gallo (I think we’d have to throw in a Prospect to get the Rangers to take all of Cargo’s salary) then we’d be in a really nice position entering 2017 Spring Training.

      Reply
    • Agbayani

      December 17, 2016

      Mike Dunn: Carp is right. He is about as close a match to Boone Logan as exists in baseball. He’s a year younger and certainly has been more durable (about 150 innings over the last 3 years compared to just about 100 for Logan) so there is that, but I wouldn’t consider him to be any kind of upgrade. Logan was solid when healthy; that’s about what we should hope for (solid, healthy) from Dunn. He was used more or less as a LOOGY, but he isn’t that good against lefties (or that bad against righties). It’s kind of … meh.

      So the Gray Beard Bullpen Brigade consists of:
      -Motte: projects at 0 WAR
      -Qualls: same
      -McGee: thanks to residual value from 2014/15, projects as a slight bounceback: 0.4 WAR
      -Dunn: projects at 0.2 WAR

      And that’s kind of a lot of money ($18 million or so off the top of my head) for 4 bullpen guys who collectively project to provide about 0.5 WAR. $36 milllion per win. Ouch.

      Then there’s Ottavino (projects at 0.9 WAR, and boy do we need that) and Estevez (0.6 – projection systems like the peripherals). So the concept has to be a significant rebound season from AT LEAST one of McGee/Motte/Qualls, plus a full season out of Ottavino, plus continued progress by Estevez (or Castro, Jairo Diaz, or somebody). I’m not feelin’ it. In fact, the approach to the bullpen this offseason was just plain weird – positively O’Dowdian in a lot of ways, which makes me wonder if the bizarro roster-building strategies we ascribed to O’Dowd and railed against were really Bridich’s ideas all along. Problem: bullpen was awful in 2016. Solution: let’s bring everyone back, and give some of them a raise! Zeigler got a lot of money for a guy that old, but at least I can see him as a good matchup addition, unlike Dunn.

      As for Gallo: I think the Rangers are going to give up on him, so yes, I’d take him (he’s still young enough to turn it around) even though I sense him going all Ian Stewart on them. Bottom line: I was really optimistic going into this offseason. So far, I’m completely underwhelmed by what Bridich is doing. Some signings/re-signings kind of maintain the status quo, but some (McGee, Desmond) are just plain weird (and in Desmond’s case, actually threaten to harm the club’s prospects over the next few years), and that make me wonder if he’s in over his head.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 17, 2016

        Love it! I don’t always agree with you, but you bring so much logic to the table….I certainly respect it.

        You and I are sync regarding the bullpen. And by the way, (in hindsight) why did we tender Jordan Lyles a contract? It sort of made a tiny bit of sense if we had signed a Closer (Melancon) and pushed everyone else “down” a slot. But the Dunn signing (to me) signals a commitment to Otto as Closer and an attempt to shore up the 6th-8th inning guys (where Lyles is likely destined). Hopefully there’s more to this than meets the eyes (such as a Qualls retirement).

        You and I disagree on Desmond….but I’m basing my Desmond love on his athleticism, a gut feeling, and a hope that we sign Chris Carter. So I’ll be the first to admit you may have the last laugh on that one.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 18, 2016

      As Ag has astutely noted, I’ve been trying really hard to convince myself to get behind the Desmond signing. As I have noted (being serious), I really do like the athleticism. Also as I’ve noted – I’ll like the signing much better if we also sign a slugging 1B-man that can at least be platooned with Desmond at 1st, allowing Desmond to play the OF about half-time.

      One thing the Desmond signing did is motivate me to investigate Bud Black’s Managerial history with stolen bases. So I looked at San Diego’s 2007-2014 team SB totals. They are literally all over the place. In 2009, SD was dead last in SBs, over 20 behind 2nd to last. But just 2 years later (2011), SD lead the league with 170 SBs. From 2010-2013, the lowest the Padres finished in team SBs was 6th.

      The 2017 Rox will have Blackmon (tentatively), Dahl, DJ, Story, Desmond, and Wolters playing regularly. We may also have Tapia getting significant time. All of these guys can run. Cargo can still opportunistically swipe a bag. Given Black’s history of being willing to run, this could be a 140-150 SB team.

      Here are SD’s SB totals during Black’s tenure;

      2007 – 29th
      2008 – 30th (36 SB – 29th was 57 SB)
      2009 – 20th
      2010 – 6th
      2011 – 1st (170 SB)
      2012 – 2nd
      2013 – 5th
      2014 – 17th

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 19, 2016

      Seems to me like there’s a lot of high stakes poker being played by players, agents, and teams in the 1B market. Who’s still out there;

      E5
      Trumbo
      Napoli
      Chris Carter
      Adam Lind
      Mark Reynolds

      Also perhaps impacting this market as FAs – Jose Bautista and Pedro Alvarez. Going one step further, Jose Abreu certainly has an impact as a trade chip as well. So we have as many as 9 obvious guys available. There are position change possibilities such as Todd Frazier that complicate things even more.

      Teams that need these guys;

      1. Baltimore for sure.
      2. The Rangers are looking for some sort of impact bat.
      3. Rockies for sure.
      4. Indians for sure.
      5A. Yankees could use an impact bat if they can trade Brett Gardner.
      5B. Maybe the Angels – on the lower end of the scale.
      5C. Perhaps the A’s – on the really low end of the scale.
      5D. Rays – some sort of impact bat.
      5E. Blue Jays – may not be finished…but like the Angels and A’s, will likely be on the low end of the scale.
      5F. Red Sox say “no,” I say maybe.

      So we 4 teams “for sure.” 6 more maybes. 9+ players. I can see how this might play out slowly.

      Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 23, 2016

        Let’s do a quick update:

        1. I had Indians in for sure category. They sign E5. Mark them off the list.
        2. I had the Rangers in the for sure category. Looks like they’re closing in on Napoli.
        3. Orioles – still searching.
        4. Rockies – still searching.

        Right now, Trumbo and Carter have the most leverage.

        Reply
    • rockymountainhigh

      December 21, 2016

      I was watching Baseball Tonight on MLBN. They played a “game” where the names were thrown out one by one. The answers had to be naming only one team should get that player.

      Trombo back to Orioles. Joe Carter’s name came up and they said Rockies.

      Reply
      • Bob K.

        December 21, 2016

        I assume that you are referring to Chris Carter who played 1st base for the Brewers last year. Joe Carter has been retired for a long time.

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 22, 2016

        RMH…..I think the most viable “realistic” scenario for the Rox is this:

        1. Trade Cargo for Brad Brach and even throw in a Prospect if necessary to get the Orioles to assume Cargo’s salary.
        2. Sign Chris Carter. I think 1 year, 7M could do it. But I’m bold and would offer 2 years, 13M.
        3. Split Carter and Desmond at 1st and Desmond/Parra in RF with Tapia as the roving utility OFer. Maximize Desmond. Put Carter in situations where he’s most likely to succeed.
        4. Extend NoDo.

        Reply
      • sdcarp

        December 22, 2016

        I like the Salazar hire. He’s deserving. Young and upcoming. He knows Dahl, Story, Murphy, Tapia, etc.

        I’d guess Salazar and Redmond knew each other as players, and Bud Black surely knew him an opposing Manager.

        Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 23, 2016

      So E5 goes for 3 years, 65M. Club option for 4th year, that could bring total contract value to 80M. So let’s assume that happens (because I like easy math). AAV = 20M.

      Trumbo isnt as good as E5, but he’s 4 years younger. So I’m guessing he’ll get something like 16-18M AAV.

      In the cases of both E5 and Trumbo, the signing team also gave up their 1st round draft pick.

      Then there’s 29 YO Chris Carter coming off a 41 HR season. No QO attached, so no forfeited draft pick. Hell…..he was released. Yes, there are absolutely swing and miss issues. There are defensive range issues (E5 and Trumbo also come with defensive question marks). But geez…..on the surface, this looks like a no-brainer.

      Reply
    • Bob K.

      December 24, 2016

      From MLBTradeRumors

      “Just over three months after outrighting Rafael Ynoa in September, the Rockies have brought back the utilityman. The 29-year-old Ynoa totaled 202 PAs with the Rockies from 2014-15, but he took only five trips to the plate with Colorado last season. All told, he has batted .281/.306/.372 in 207 plate appearances with the Rockies and .270/.344/.364 in nearly 4,000 minor league PAs. Along with Ynoa, Colorado picked up righty C.C. Lee. The Taiwan native pitched in Japan last season after garnering minimal major league experience from 2013-15 with the Indians. Once among Cleveland’s top prospects (BA ranked him fourth in the organization after the 2011 season), the 30-year-old owns a 4.50 ERA, 8.74 K/9, 4.24 BB/9 and 34 innings in the majors.”

      Reply
    • sdcarp

      December 24, 2016

      Merry Christmas gang – have a great one!

      2017 is shaping up to be a fun season. I have a hunch we have one more big Hot Stove move remaining.

      Reply
    • lwesche

      January 25, 2017

      One month from today – first game against AZ. Hope springs eternal!

      Reply

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