Sliding Down Steep Slippery Slope

Sliding Down Steep Slippery Slope

If we look at the lineup in the picture, we (except BB and the front office) know that this was the problem all year long.  It was masked behind outstanding rotation and solid back end of the bullpen (once Rox figured Shaw shouldn’t pitch in a high school game).  Common theme?  All veterans with wRC+ of less than a hundred starting (and blocking) the upcoming youngsters that were ready to play.

Ryan McMahon – blocked behind Desmond, DJLM, and Nolan Arenado.  Never given extended regular playing time.

Raimel Tapia – Banner year in Albuquerque blocked by the signing of CarGo and Gerardo Parra, both past their prime.

Tom Murphy – He couldn’t be any worse than Ianetta and Wolters.

Jordan Patterson and Garrett Hampson – blocked by bad contracts of older players.

No #5 pitcher obtained at deadline – Could have been somebody like a Jhoulys Chacin level. Or a Chris Archer.

No first baseman obtained at deadline – Failed to get Justin Bour and let the Brewers get him.

No utility player obtained at deadline – Somebody like a A. Hechevarria.

No RH hitter obtained at deadline – Andrew McCutcheon was there for the taking.

No bundle of talent obtained – should have traded Nolan Arenado while his value was high.  Blew it just like CarGo at his prime a couple of years ago.

Charlie Blackmon – he was never moved to a corner OF despite trailing the majors by far with a deep negative DRS (Defensive Runs Saved)

David Dahl – Like McMahon, never given extended regular playing time.

I’m sure the rest of us RWOers will add to this list.  The offensive problems were unmasked as soon as they hit the road to San Francisco and Los Angeles.  Only three runs in three games at AT&T Park and only four runs in three games at the Chavez Ravine.  This weekend they complete the final road trip of the year in Arizona.  Only one more road win is needed to break the franchise record for road wins.  Even with that, they played bad at Coors until too late to complement the outstanding road trip.

The Rockies should look at the Nuggets’ front office.  They got rid of bad contracts and let the youth play!  Only Paul Milsap and Archibald are the veterans.  Yet they look like they can contend for the division title and a deep playoff run.  So do something Rockies! On both sides of the ball (pitching and hitting)!

Go ahead and unbuckle your seat belts and drink some beer that were made for adults.  Throw away your purple Kool Aid and shades.  Enjoy the final ten games before the long and cold winter sets in.

Three runs in SF and four runs in LA doomed Rockies

rockymountainhigh

Hometown - Champaign, IL College - Northern Illinois University, 1988 Sports Editor for my high school newspaper. Travels frequently - I can be found anywhere in the world.

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Bob K
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Bob K

Jon Gray won for the 11th time when Wolters catches him. Wolters had his 4th bases loaded walk this year. He was 0-1 with 4 walks.

Jeem
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Jeem

Group: sorry to bail on everyone. I’m exiled to Vero Beach, FL to help care for elderly parents, and unable to follow the action. Great comments, even better race. Go go go Rox!!!

Doc
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Doc

How sweet would it be to see a Cubs/Dodger wildcard game?

sdcarp
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sdcarp

This is looking semi-likely.

Agbayani
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Agbayani

This team hasn’t ever been close to winning a division … until now. The Giants threw in the towel a long time ago, but they throw Bumgarner and Derek Rodriguez at the Dodgers this weekend … MadBum is not about to give up or give in, and Rodriguez is quietly emerging as a very good pitcher. Obviously the best scenario is simple: sweep the Nats! If Sunday’s game counts, I’m throwing Marquez on short rest and then clearing out the… Read more »

JimNorthrup1968
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JimNorthrup1968

I agree with all of those. David Dahl has a beautiful swing and has been throwing in some HUGE hits down the stretch, can’t understand why management hasn’t been playing him as much as possible this season. What a talent!

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

Giants fire GM Bobby Evans.

Bob K
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Bob K

The Rockies control their own destiny. If they win their remaining 5 games, the worst they can finish is tied with the Dodgers for the division lead and would be guaranteed the second spot in the Wild Card race. Both the Dodgers and the Cardinals only have four games remaining. The Dodgers and the Rockies both have 70 losses and the Cardinals have 71 losses. All they have to do is to continue winning.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Sounds easy enough (sarcasm intended).

Bob K
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Bob K

At least they don’t have to face Nola or Scherzer.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

For sure Bob………although Nola has been mortal the last 4-6 weeks (I think he’s getting tired).

Bob K
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Bob K

I suspect that both Nola and Scherzer did not want to hurt their chances for the Cy Young by facing the Rockies.

Agbayani
Member
Agbayani

WHAT A WEEK! What a race! This is fantastic. I almost went to tonight’s game, but you know what? The Dodgers-Dbacks is on TV late … I actually decided it was better to stay home and catch a little of everything. We had an AL playoff race like this in, what, 2010 or something like that? Right down to the last day. This is unfolding beautifully with the Brewers and Cubs having to win because they both want to take… Read more »

roxnsox
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roxnsox

So much fun to scoreboard watch this week! And catch bits of the other games. I even taped the last few innings of the D-backs game (cuz I have to go to bed early, being old), and watched with great enjoyment this morning. When I said I unbuckled and threw out the purple stuff, I guess that wasn’t quite accurate. I loosened my grip a bit in a proactive effort to guard against disappointment. But it’s a ride worthy of… Read more »

roxnsox
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roxnsox

!!! 🙂 !!! Wild card at least. Unbelievable grit by these guys to win 8 straight after it seemed all was lost following the terrible series in LA. But we don’t want no steenking wild card. The West is almost won.

Bob K
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Bob K

Magic number down to 2. Unfortunately the Giants are holding up their end of the deal.

Bob K
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Bob K

That was supposed to say the Giants are not holding up their end of the deal as they currently trail the Dodgers 3-1.

Agbayani
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Agbayani

RMH, fantastic post. And now we’re seeing exactly how close we are as the Dbacks collapse, but … all of it means nothing if the Dodgers, Brewers, Cardinals keep winning. Which they are doing. I think the non-move that bothers me the most: the Brewers picking up Gio Gonzalez in a waiver deal. Three starts, three wins. He’s not the pitcher he used to be, but he’s been pretty damn effective, enough to just about clinch the Brewers home field… Read more »

Agbayani
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Agbayani

Tapia sent up to bunt an insurance run over to 3B, nobody out. First pitch: perfect fastball, low and down the middle – Tapia doesn’t offer. Second pitch – pulls back the bat. Ball. Third pitch: starts to offer, pulls bat back, then sticks the bat back down in bunt position for “swinging” strike 2. Third pitch: strikeout. This kid is no longer such a kid, and he still seems to have zero baseball skills. If the Dbacks come back… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

Tapia is sorely lacking in the baseball IQ department.

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Lets look at the schedule this week:
Rockies – Phillies and Nats at home.
Dodgers – DBacks and Giants on the road.
Cards – Brewers at home, Cubs on the road.

I think the Cubs and Brewers are “in,” they just have to decide who wins the Division, and who’s the WC (the Brewers are keeping the Cubs honest).

No way will San Francisco rollover and play dead for the Dodgers.

Bob K
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Bob K

Why not, they rolled over and played dead for the Cardinals.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

Because the Dodgers are their bitter rival. They’d love to beat them anytime, especially if there is still a chance to be spoilers. They’re at home and want to finish well for the fans and themselves.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

I hear what you’re saying Bob…..their performance against the Cards was pathetic. But I agree with RoxnSox………the Dodgers/Giants rivalry will kick-in.

roxnsox
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roxnsox

I’ve unbuckled and thrown out the purple stuff, but it’s nice to see the boys show some grit, and also quite satisfying to have them put the D-backs down for good. 125 games in first place this season? That’s baseball, you desert rats. Taste a bullpen meltdown, we know it too well. Couple other things: I was totally amazed to hear that Wade Davis leads the NL in saves (even before today). And, I thought Spilly in the far high… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

Seven games to go, all at home. The Phillies for 4 and the Nationals for the last 3. The Rockies finish 44 – 37 for their best road record ever. Hitting is still atrocious. This is only the second time since Galarraga finished 11th that the Rockies have not had a hitter finish in the top ten in the NL. If the season finishes without a drastic change, this will be the first time the Rockies did not have anyone… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

Forecasting the QO market mentions DJ as a marginal possibility for a QO. There is no mention whatsoever about Ottavino.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/09/forecasting-the-qualifying-offer-market.html

Bob K
Guest
Bob K

German Marquez is 14-10 and set the Rockies season record for strike outs with 221 Ks. He tied a modern era record of 8 straight Ks to start a game. He is quite the bargain throw in for the Dickerson/McGee trade. Thank you Diamondbacks!!! The Rockies are in 1st place by 1/2 a game over the Dodgers but more importantly the Dodgers now have 71 losses while the Rockies have 70 losses. The Dodgers have tomorrow off and then 3… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

For all the whining, bitching, and moaning I do about the Rox offense and overall construction of the team, I have (and continue to) give(n) Bud and Crew much credit for developing this batch of young SPers. There’s an old saying in baseball that gets twisted into many various iterations…..but basically goes like this – “it’s all about pitching.” The irony to me is “IF” (big “if”) we can win the Division, I think we have the best pair of… Read more »

roxnsox
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roxnsox

The best pair in the NL?!? Bold, carp, bold… I like it.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

Alright RoxnSox – let’s say NL playoffs are Braves, Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, and one of Dodgers or Cardinals. Which of those teams have a better pair right now, than Freeland/Marquez? Cubs….no. Brewers…..no. Dodgers……no (not with the injuries they have). Cardinals……no. Braves……talent wise, “yes.” A couple of years from now, probably “yes.” But right now…..I don’t think so.

roxnsox
Guest
roxnsox

I wasn’t arguing with you! Ha! I don’t even pay enough attention to whose top two are the hottest. It just surprises me when the Rockies apparently have the best of…almost anything. And starters? Well, let’s say never before.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

Agree, its counterintuitive.

roxnsox
Guest
roxnsox

Gang! Do I detect a little bit of magic going on here? Who thought this would be where we sit, a week ago after the brutal Dodgers sweep? Aaaaahhhhh!!! Cubbieees! Giants! We love you! I don’t care if the Brewers take the Central; I actually have some family ties to Milwaukee and Wisconsin, but I’d REALLY like to see the Cards out of it, for obvious reasons. Is Wade Davis 1) a sneaky closer, 2) a lucky closer? He sure… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

Lets look at this weekend’s schedule: First, greedy sdcarp is looking at the Braves. They’re losing to the Mets 4-1 as I type this, then head to Philly for 3. We know the Phillies have packed it in, BUT, Aaron Nola will pitch Saturday. Second – as Ag notes, Dodgers are at Giants and Bumgarner, Rodriquez, and a not awful Andrew Suarez are scheduled to pitch. Im sure the Giants would take great pleasure in knocking the Dodgers out of… Read more »

Agbayani
Member
Agbayani

Carp, Roxnsox – some great food for thought. I’d love to see the Cubs vs. Dodgers in that wildcard play-in game. I’m feeling good about Freeland, more than a little anxious about Gray … great weekend coming up where all of this gets sorted out.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

I think Cubs/Dodgers WC is most likely scenario. Nearly 400M payroll playing in the WC game.

Agbayani
Member
Agbayani

This weekend = playoff baseball. Bud has been more of a traditionalist than some other managers, but even he’s shown a really quick hook with our currently unreliable starters, Gray and Bettis. On Bettis: I love the guy, I loved how he started strong this year after what he’s battled through. But whether it’s just aging in general or running out of gas after pitching relatively few innings last year, right now he’s got nothing. You really shouldn’t use him… Read more »

sdcarp
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sdcarp

Ian Desmond, advanced analytics, and +/- 14M per year: Advanced analytics pretty much hate Desmond. He’s a -0.6 WAR player at the moment (Baseball Reference equation). But, he DOES have this……..22HR, 20 SB, 88 RBIs, 82R, and is undeniably versatile. Part of his WAR problem is that most of his games are at 1B, and 1B takes the biggest position “hit” in most WAR equations (something like a -15 points…..depends on equation). If he played OF everyday, he’d likely be… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

Desmond’s contract is all over the place with different monetary values each year. He is getting $22MM this year. It will be less next year.

Bob K
Guest
Bob K

The other problem is that Desmond is just adequate defensively at 1st base. He very frequently does not watch the ball into his glove and creates errors that get attributed to the player making the throw. A good 1st baseman catches those balls preventing errors. He has caused the other infielders multiple errors that even McMahon would have prevented. McMahon is far superior defensively to Desmond. Of course there is the rally killer aspect of when he hits into one… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

FWIW – GIDP is considered when calculating WAR. So is defense. And, naturally, positioned played. All three of these factors work against Desmond.

Agbayani
Member
Agbayani

Carp, you’re right about Desmond’s WAR showing “worse” than it otherwise would be because he plays 1B the vast majority of the time. For example, fangraphs has him at -0.6 WAR in 2018, playing a just a bit worse than average 1B. (Note here: I don’t put a ton of stock in UZR numbers for 1st basemen – it’s a range measure, and so much of what a first baseman does – scooping balls in the dirt, stretching to receive… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

Rockies 2017 payroll = +/- 130M 2017 Wins = 87 Rockies 2018 payroll = +/- 142M 2018 Wins = 90-92, yet to be determined. Going back to the admittedly flimsy +/- 8M = 1 WAR, we’ve actually achieved 3-5 more wins that 2017 for 12M……..not bad. Sticking with the word “flimsy,” this is admittedly a flimsy analysis because it assumes the 2017 baseline of 130M is good. I’m not quite ready to admit that, considering 2017 included overpays for Parra,… Read more »

Bob K
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Bob K

The 2017 payroll ended up around $145MM. The 2018 payroll ended up around $148.5MM. The figures you provided were the estimated salaries at the beginning of those years.

The next 2 years Desmond gets $15MM per year followed by $8MM for 2021.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp

Correct – I’m a fan of using payroll entering season, game #1.

Bob K
Guest
Bob K

Arenado picked as the #1 trade candidate in the NL West followed by Goldschmidt at #2.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/09/top-five-trade-candidates-nl-west.html